A Holiday Wish…

Lisa and I want to wish all of our readers a wonderful, healthy, and happy Christmas and Holiday. Lisa is on her way to New York and I am taking to the road shortly myself. As we will both be away from our trading desks for the holiday there will be no posts tonight or tomorrow.

I will return in time to do a pre market analysis on Wednesday 12/26 at which time I will recap the events of today’s short trading day.

Best Wishes to All

 

Pre Market - December 24th 2007

A low volume, quiet market day expected today as the short trading day before Christmas is typically non eventful.

After the Christmas holiday we will have some events of note that we will be watching.

Wednesday, 12/26

• 7:45 am - ICSC chain store sales
• 8:55 am - Redbook Retail sales
• 9:00 am - S&P / Case Shiller home price index
• 10:00 am - December Richmond Fed Manufacturing index

Thursday, 12/27

• 7:00 am - MBA mortgage applications
• 8:30 am - Initial jobless claims
• 10:00 am - December consumer confidence

Friday, 12/28

• 10:00 am - November New and Existing home sales
• 10:00 am - November Help wanted index

Twas the night before…

‘Twas the night before Christmas Eve trading day, when all through the pits

Not a creature was stirring, no up and down ticks;

The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,

In hopes that Ben Bernanke soon would be there;

The traders were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of huge gains on the DOW danced in their heads;

And Lisa in her ‘kerchief, and I in my cap,

Had just settled down for a long winter’s nap,

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from the trading desk to see what was the matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow

Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below,

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But an SIV bailout, and eight tiny Fed Governors,

With the little old driver, so clueless and dopey,

I knew in a moment it must be Ben Bernanke.

More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;

"Now, Kroszner! now, Kohn!, now, Mishkin and Hoenig!

On, Rosengren on Evans! on, Warsh and Poole!

To the top of the NYSE! to the top of the street named Wall!

Now dash away! dash away! dash away all!"

As worthless commercial paper that before the wild hurricane fly,

When they meet with the credit crisis, mount to the sky,

So up to the market-top the coursers they flew,

With the bail out full of money, and Henry Paulson too.

 

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof

The prancing and pawing of each little hoof.

As I drew in my hand, and was turning around,

Down the chimney Ben Bernanke came with a bound.

He was dressed all in green, from his head to his foot,

And his clothes were all tarnished with margin calls and puts;

A bundle of money he had flung on his back,

And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack.

His eyes — how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!

His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!

His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,

And the beard of his chin was as white as the snow;

A dollar bill he held tight in his teeth,

And dollar signs encircled his head like a wreath;

He had a broad face and a little round belly,

That shook, when he laughed like a financial analyst full of jelly.

He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old fart,

And I laughed when I saw him, in spite of my heart;

A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,

Soon gave me to know I much to dread;

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,

And filled the stockings with promissary notes; then turned with a jerk,

And laying his finger aside of his nose,

And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose;

He sprang to his SIV, to his team gave a command,

And away they all flew from the consumers they dammed…

But I heard him exclaim as he drove out of sight.

"Happy Christmas to all, we’re just thieves in the night"

(by Chuck Young, Rebeltraders)

 

I want to thank Clement Clark Moore, original author of The Night Before Christmas, for the inspiration to create a more "current" economic version. Hope some of you were able to have a good chuckle… The classic "Night Before Christmas" is a masterpiece, our version is a parody with an economic twist.

Tomorrow we have a short trading day. And the trading volume is typically light between Christmas and New Years so will be hard to gauge where we will be going this week. From where we sit nothing substantial has changed with the economic picture other than some optimism on Wall Street , the question is how long will it last. As I stated in a previous commentary the more I see the market advance the more I am afraid of a substantial fall in the making.

We will not be taking on any new swing trades this week so that our portfolio can be re-balanced on January 2nd and started new for 2008. Not much has happed over the weekend other than the usual news stories of shoppers making the last minute shopping dash to the malls. A British newspaper over the weekend polled top British economists and the results were published today, in it they expect that the Bank of England will need to cut rates four times in 2008 as their economy continues to slow. Also reported tonight in the German financial newspaper Boersen-Zeitung, is that the IMF (International Monetary Fund) chief economist was quoted as saying "We will not be able to stick to the estimate of growth of 1.9 percent for the United States nor the 2.1 percent for Europe"

One of our readers has requested a chart analysis of the Russell 2000 index. Shown below is that chart with the current technical analysis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was going to post more information on what the new Rebeltraders site will offer, but time became limited over the weekend. This week I will post much information on our plans for 2008 and what the new site is going to offer you! You will definitely want to be with us in 2008 as we continue to grow.

To all a goodnight… see you in the morning.