NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street moved sharply higher Wednesday after the Commerce Department reported an unexpected increase in retail sales last month and eased some concerns about consumers’ willingness to spend despite economic uncertainty…

Give me a freaking break… Give the press a piece of news and they jump all over it without understanding the real dynamics of the markets. As you read in my post early this morning regarding retail sales the change was minor and the trend of retail sales remains poor, at best.

The markets advanced 18 on the S&P, 178 on the DOW, and 54 on the Nasdaq. But the volume was weak on the advance. As we have been seeing since August of last year, the selling has been on higher volume than on the upward rallies. The recent few trading sessions are no exception. Volume has weakened as prices have moved up. In technical analysis this is always a sign of a direction change.

Over the weekend I posted a chart of the Dow Jones Industrials. And on that chart I highlighted certain support and resistance levels that we were going to watch closely to make an entry into the market by shorting the Dow. Today the Dow traded very close to the resistance level I discussed over the weekend. Today we took a position in symbol: DXD. This is the Ultrashort of the Dow. The volume today on the price advances was very weak and this built our confidence that this move up to resistance was likely going to be stopped. And it was, prices did not advance any further past the resistance level.

This type of trade offers us a good risk to reward profile. Because it offers to us a clear point at which to know if the trade is going against us and the potential reward is very good if the trade follows as the charts say it should. Now of course news can always throw a monkey wrench into the very best of trades, but at least as far as the chart is concerned this was a good opportunity to take a short position on the Dow.

We will know if the trade is going against us if it breaks upward through resistance, that resistance line is our ‘line in the sand’ and we will close out the trade and go short again on the next resistance level above. Should this be the start of the next leg down now we are protected in that our entry point should protect us from any small bounce from support (purple line - was resistance, now support). Should the Dow bounce from that level we still have our ‘line in the sand’ (which would now be resistance again and if it breaks upward we close the trade. So different possibilities in trading behavior in the Dow leaves us with a clear exit point. Should this be the start of the next leg down then I see the lows from the middle of January  coming back into play which will be a substantial gain for our short on the Dow.

The chart below is an updated chart from the one I posted over the weekend. Notice the trend line I applied to the RSI. Each rally attempt has been stopped by price resistance levels and RSI trend. The circle on the price is where we entered our short today. At the bottom of the chart you will see the volume, and a moving average (black line) has been superimposed over the volume levels. Notice how the volume has been drying up on the recent upward rally. This tells us the rally is losing momentum and conviction and that a fall in the Dow is near. Also note that volume has increased during times of selling and decreased on the buying rallies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow we get the weekly initial jobless claims and we have Ben Bernanke and Secretary Paulson testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy… oh boy, I can’t wait for that one. Better get the popcorn ready now. 

Should be an interesting day tomorrow for sure. On Friday night I will discuss the possibilities of a ’sucker rally’ which could draw in the bulls to only slaughter them later in the year. Film at 11.