Stock Market - Pre Open Report - May 13th 2008

Posted: May 13, 2008 at 9:14 am by Chuck

The Government data from this morning:

Import Price Data…

APR IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 1.8 % V 1.6%E, Y/Y: 15.4% V 15.0%E
- Prior MoM revised from 2.8% to 2.9%
- Prior YoY revised from 14.8% to 14.9%

Retail Sales Data:

APR ADVANCE RETAIL SALES: -0.2% V -0.2%E; LESS AUTO: 0.5% V 0.2%E
- Prior less autos revised from 0.1% to 0.4%

APRIL RETAIL SALES TABLE

                                                Apr             Mar             Feb

Total Retail Sales            378.148      378.852          378.106
Percent Change               -0.2          0.2
Total Except Autos          306.191      304.815          303.690
Percent Change                0.5          0.4
Automobiles                    71.957       74.037           74.416
Percent Change               -2.8         -0.5
Furniture, Home               9.505        9.494            9.476
Percent Change                0.1          0.2
Electronics/Appliances       9.511        9.377            9.372
Percent Change                1.4          0.1
Building Materials           27.126       26.608           27.020
Percent Change                1.9         -1.5
Food/Beverage               48.748       48.546           48.179
Percent Change                0.5          0.8
Health/Personal Care        20.286       20.208           20.220
Percent Change                0.4         -0.1
Gasoline Stations           41.719       41.902           41.243
Percent Change               -0.4          1.6
Clothing/Accessories        19.020       18.892           18.752
Percent Change                0.7          0.7
Sporting/Hobby/Music         7.428        7.395            7.346
Percent Change                0.4          0.7
General Merchandise         49.327       49.103           49.065
Percent Change                0.5          0.1
Misc. Stores                       9.679        9.796            9.762
Percent Change               -1.2          0.3
Nonstore Retailers          25.877       25.889           25.748
Percent Change                 0           0.5
Eating/Drinking                37.929       37.605           37.507
Percent Change                0.9          0.3

Earlier this morning Wall Mart (WMT) released their earnings and they provided cautionary guidance going forward, indicating that everything hinged on the economy. That, in conjunction with their earnings not being as good as the market had hoped, sent the pre market futures down. Once the Government data on retail sales data came out the futures started going up.

The import price data reveals inflation continues to worsen.

On the subject of retail sales again. It is very interesting to us how it is the market thinks a year over year growth of -0.2% is great news. But of course the market is a forward looking mechanism so it takes this data as maybe things will improve later. To us, this only sets up the market for an even larger disappointment soon.

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Comments

2 Responses to “Stock Market - Pre Open Report - May 13th 2008”

ecklebob on May 13th, 2008 9:27 am

Chuck, You don’t seem to understand! If you remove gasoline sales we are buying more c**p! If you remove auto sales we are buying even more c**p!! If you remove mortgage payments we are even buying more c**p !!! If you remove the cost of feeding our children we are even buying more c**p!!!! If you remove cities filing for bankruptcy we are even buying more c**p!!!!! If you remove… C’mon Chuck, it’s all in the numbers!!!!! Happy days are here again.
Dave on May 13th, 2008 12:14 pm

Still holding onto my double short gold (DZZ) position and a large position in MU. Started selling a bit of my ICO position on the run up this morning. Have a small POT short position that is down a bit.

I did add a small position in NTRI yesterday. It looks like there is some accumulation going on this month. I will only keep it for a trade with a tight stop.
The balance of the account is cash.