Archive for May 16th, 2008
Posted by:
Chuck
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Gold, Oil, and Energy were today’s winners.
The market made a gallant attempt to recover it’s losses from earlier, but you have to remember that it was options day, so one has to be mindful of that.
Selling was strong and buying was light. In the morning hours the selling took the average volume to above the six month averages, first time that has happened in quite a while.
More in the wrap up tonight, fill your cars gas tanks soon as gasoline is most likely to go up over the weekend or Monday at your local stations.
Not only did oil hit a new intraday record today but Goldman Sachs has raised their full year outlook for the black gold. They now put the average crude oil price for the 2nd half of 2008 to be $143 per barrel.
More tonight..
Posted by:
Chuck
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Selling continues on high volume.
All indices, except for oil, are selling on above average volume so far.
Some news items mid day:
QATAR OIL MINISTER: NO NEED FOR OPEC TO MEET BEFORE SEPTEMBER, THERE IS NO NEED FOR MORE OIL SUPPLY.
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OFHEO: FNM AND FRE A “VULNERABILITY” IN MARKETS, VULNERABLE BECAUSE THEY ARE HIGHLY LEVERAGED TO RISK
- Says FNM and FRE have $5.3T in oustanding credit, three GSEs have $6.5T in oustanding credit, cap infusions could total over $25B.
- Reiterates need for strong regulator.
- FRE and FNM’s risk models are inadequate.
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FDIC’S BAIR: GOVERNMENT NEEDS MORE AGGRESSIVE HOUSING FIXES, WARNS OF GREATER HOUSING, CREDIT WOES
- Expects to see second wave of ‘credit stress’, expects more delinquencies in construction, commercial, and consumer debt
- US Housing crisis needs ‘proactive’ intervention to prevent foreclosures
Posted by:
Chuck
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Durable orders are down. Confidence is down, too, which should be of no surprise.
US MARCH DURABLES ORDERS REVISED TO -0.3% FROM +0.1%
- Factory inventories revised to 1% from 0.9%
- Factory shipments revised to 1.3% v 1.1%
MAY PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 59.5 V 62E (LOWEST READING SINCE JUNE 1980)
- 1-year inflation expectation at 5.2% v 4.8% in April (highest since Feb 1982)
Posted by:
Chuck
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One of our members submitted to us this chart of the volatility index (VIX). Again, good work Steve.
Posted by:
Chuck
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Options Expiration day is today. With major indices all trading at resistance levels of one kind or another and oil hitting new record highs today should provide for some wild action today.
The housing starts data was released a few minutes ago. Headline data shows an increase in the housing starts, but looking under the hood shows that single family home construction is still declining while apartment complexes (multi family) is on a rapid rise. Home builders realize that more and more people will be renters in the future as less people will be able to afford to buy.
Futures did spike on the headline, but quickly pulled back once the hood was lifted on the data.
US HOUSING STARTS TABLE
APR. MAR. FEB.
Housing Starts 1,032 954 1,107
Percent Change 8.2
Single Family 692 704 722
Percent Change -1.7
Multi Family 362 232 356
Percent Change 40.5
Northeast 89 102 129
Percent Change -12.7
Midwest 158 127 154
Percent Change 24.4
South 516 498 577
Percent Change 3.6
West 269 227 247
Percent Change 18.5
Building Permits 978 932 981
Percent Change 4.9
Unadjusted
Building Permits 89 77.4 73.4
Housing Starts 92.4 79.4 78.4
