Part 2

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"…there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over…"
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"… the outlook continues favorable…"
- HES Mar 29, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

"… irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery…"
- HES June 28, 1930

"… the present depression has about spent its force…"
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

And in 1933, well after everything was supposed to be ‘improving’, we had this:

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Dow Industrials - 1930 - 1939)

 

I just wanted to show how that before (and during) an economic decline the Government and others kept saying all is well. Just like we have today.

Now, I’m not drawing a connection here between the Great Depression and our current economic decline. But, what I am drawing your attention to is the constant mis-information that is always paraded for the American people. Investors and traders alike must always be ‘thinkers’.

The Government never wants anyone to take their money out of a bank, and the big Wall Street firms never want you to withdraw your money from your brokerage accounts, for it would weaken the leverage that both use in order to make their money. Mutual funds need the constant inflow of 401K funds, IRA’s, etc. in order for them to keep building their wealth.

The Government and Wall Street is only concerned with their capital preservation, not yours. Always be ‘thinkers’ and take control of your own financial assets. RebelTraders is for the ‘thinking’ traders and investors. Sometimes the information and views we present here will defy the mainstream consensus, but we are independent analysts and we have no agenda but to say it like it is.

Over the weekend I received some emails from our members and readers. Each is in its own way is a local accounting of how the economy is in their part of the country. In all, the "real world" economy is deteriorating. Real world impact of inflation, declining buying power (lower wage gains), and the near exhaustion of credit by the average middle class family is reaching a tipping point. Second quarter (April to June) retail sales are extremely likely to be considerably worse than that of the quarter we are just now wrapping up. The impact of the rising fuel costs are having a real impact on everyday life. And the rapidly evaporating credit availability suddenly makes that new pair of designer jeans, or the new laptop computer no longer important as money is being funneled towards food and fuel costs.

Corporate earnings for weak ending May 16th 2008:

With 3,569 companies having reported their quarterly earnings,  the total now stands at a -29% revenue decline compared to this same period last year.