FOMC minutes:
*MINUTES OF THE APRIL 30 FOMC MEETING: MOST FED OFFICIALS VIEWED APRIL RATE CUT AS ‘CLOSE CALL’
- Saw rising restraint on spending, Signals no more rate cuts even if economy retracts
- CHANGES 2008 jobless forecast to 5.5-5.7% from 5.2-5.3% previous
- CHANGES 2008 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% -1.2% from 1.3%-2%previous, and 2009 to 2%-3% from 2.1%-2.7% previous
- CHANGES 2008 core inflation forecast to 2.2-2.4% from 2%-2.2% previous, Total Inflation forecast to 3.1%-3.4% from 2.1%-2.4%
In other words, the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that GDP growth will be bad, unemployment will continue to rise, and inflation is getting worse. In one paragraph they have said everything we predicted here for months.
The market is selling fast and furious and this news as the GDP growth will be much worse than they previously said it would be.
16 Comments
May 21st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
UH OH, watch out below!!!!!
May 21st, 2008 at 2:20 pm
GAME OVER.
May 21st, 2008 at 2:23 pm
My goodness. The market decides to address…reality.
May 21st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Looks like Jeff Macke is gonna get stopped out on his call last night. SPY long with a stop $139.00
May 21st, 2008 at 2:43 pm
More KUDOS to our fearless leaders!
Glad, I’m holding QID, SDS and TWM.
Gotta tell you; I have a greater appreciation
of my pain threshold…than ever.
Nice work…Chuck and Lisa.
A Chicago “Da Best” to you both.
Thanks for Your Leadership!
Noel
May 21st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Myles P, I laughed when Macke said SPY long and now I’m laughing convulsively! The sobering reality is they will all continue pumping stocks this afternoon SQUEEZING every red hot cent the suckers will give. As Jim Cramer said about YESTERDAYS downturn “it was probably due.” The bulls are FINALLY getting their due.
May 21st, 2008 at 2:47 pm
close long position @ BP, still short @ LUV, MSFT, AAPL, VRSN… I opened short position @ AMZN…
May 21st, 2008 at 2:48 pm
ecklebob - bulls were just ignorant, now they going to pay for it…
May 21st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
The key now is to figure out how far we go down. Past Jan. 22 low?
May 21st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I am long QID, DXD, SDS, and TWM bought them Monday mid morning.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:15 pm
The low for SPY was exactly 139. That trade “may” have been Macke’s order. :)Anyway, that is why he had a tight stop. Small loss on that position. I actually like Macke as he is the one of the few that will go both long and short.
I am just holding two gas positions, UNG and NGAS….and one small QID position that I bought at the open (3% of portfolio). I am going to sell 50% of the QID position right now, and move up the stop on the other half. I am not ready to get much shorter at this time.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:18 pm
I call my self the lurker because this is my first comment to you two. but I have been reading your web site every night since last year.
It is now time for me to tell you how impressed I am with your ability to forecast the market and economy. Wonderful job Chuck and Lisa, the two of you are truly pros at what you do and you are objective like you say. Tell it like it is, keep doing it because I will keep reading it.
It is great to have some real people with real analysis out here helping us.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Nod to Noel on the pain threshold. Holding long on SDS was like a root canal without the Novacaine.
Added a little gold/silver at the open on Monday with our US Gov’t welfare check.
Isn’t this a great country?
Chuck & Lisa…you both rock!
May 21st, 2008 at 3:24 pm
This is very interesting…..
Helene Meisler, a chartist, I follow; wrote
in her newsletter last night about a
double top formation could be forming
on the DJIA.
This afternoon she notes a close below
12,700 will confirm it.
She used to work at Goldman Sachs
as a technical analyst.
Noel
May 21st, 2008 at 5:26 pm
ZZYZX -
Is your name based on the road near Nevada on the way to Vegas?
May 21st, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Off topic….but yet it is. Spend a weekend out there at the research center when I was in school