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EBAY Earnings Report
Posted: July 16, 2008 at 4:32 pm by Lisa
This is what we have so far, and the stock is trading down after hours (guidance is lower, margins decreased):
EBAY REPORTS Q2 $0.43 V $0.41E, R$2.2B V $2.17BE
- Guides Q3 EPS $0.39-$0.41 v $0.41e, R $2.10B-$2.15B v $2.18Be
- Guides FY08 Revenues $8.80B-$9.05B v $9.0Be
- Guides FY08 EPS $1.72-$1.77 v $1.74e
- Q2 marketplaces revenue $1.46B (+13% y/y), Skype $136M and Paypal $602M
- Registered users as of June 30 338.2M v 219.6M y/y
- Q2 new listings 19% y/y
- GAAP operating margin decreased slightly to 24.8% for the quarter, compared to 24.9% for the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating margin decreased to 31.9% for the quarter, compared to 32.4% for the same period last year.
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I don’t think any of us were surprised by this move higher, it was just a question of when. It is interesting that, despite the powerful rally today, it doesn’t seem that we’ve broken any of the major downtrend lines in financials or the S&P, at least to my eyes (Would be interested to know your thoughts on this). That being said, we certainly have gone quickly from oversold to potentially overbought with Citi and Merrill ahead of us and options expiry on Friday.
At least in my mind it goes without being said, but, as always, thanks for the wonderful job you do here. Reading the insightful, rational, and timely commentary that you put out is one of the highlights of my day.
Here we go again. From what I see tomorrow will be an important day. If its a another up day I have it as a possible reversal otherwise it is back to the races. It seems the power of the PPT is strong but we will see if it as some staying power at least in the short term. Otherwise nothing has changed and we ultimately go lower, if only of the simple reason yesterday could not possibly be a “bottom”.
Agree that yesterday did not feel like the bottom. I’ve heard the arguments for why the VIX didn’t have to spike to signal a bottom here. While I have heard this argument from people who are much smarter than myself, I still don’t buy it. The VXO (old VIX, based on the S&P 100) barely got up into the low 30s which, for this part of the cycle with the extreme pressures of FNM and FRE on us in addition to the CRE and consumer lending issues that still need to hit financials and feed through into the real economy, is way too complacent to mark a bottom.
All that being said, JohnK, please forgive my ignorance, but what is “PPT”?
The infamous “Plunge Protection Team”. Here is link for an explanation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets
Today’s pop in financials just does not feel like a one day event. We’ll see tomorrow how the market reacts to the plethora of earnings news.
Was the 276 point rally planned to keep the headlines from focusing on today’s ugly inflation report?
Consumer prices rose 1.1% from May and are up 5% Y/Y, the worst in 17 years.
Excluding food and energy, prices were up .3% from May and 2.4% Y/Y
Treasury yields jumped which is not good for an already weak housing market and banks.
Lisa and Chuck,
Sorry, I have been out of touch most recently.
Preparing a vacation with a friend to Southern
Florida.
Today’s action imho was nothing more than
an oversold bounce. Lottsa short covering
added to the levitation act.
Some major overhead resistance lies in
wait for those who believe we have turned
the corner. Hate to say the word “bottom.”
Same problems remain and they are HUGE.
Will look to re-enter SRS/SKF as we might
potentially hit resistance levels. SRS is a great
trading vehicle. Moves very quick.
“Rational” was the adjective to describe his
positive feelings regarding Rebel Traders.
I so subscribe to his vibes.
Lisa, you should be working for CBS
Marketwatch. Accomplished writer who is
quick and accurate. Tell Chuck I augured
a raise is merited.
Next week will be writing you from Palm
Beach.
My Best and Thanks,
Noel
Here is something to chew on. WFC earnings a tad bit misleading.
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/16/second-liens-still-lurking-at-wells-fargo/
First, thanks Chuck and Lisa for this site. Honest, intelligent and prudent real time thoughts and opinions on the day’s trading are hard to come by. For a relative newcomer to the scary and bizarre world of Wall Street, your postings are truly appreciated.
With the full force of the government pushing, I guess it was the safer bet that we’d get ‘the bounce’ rather than the crash. Longer term, I’m still short the whole damn thing. When Kudlow is put out to pasture we’ll know it’s safe to go long again.
I linked to the housingwire article in tonight’s summary, JohnK. It summed up the problem in simple language.
Kudlow out to pasture….best suggestion I’ve heard all week!
Noel- Hope you have a great time. We’ve missed you around here!
I think Ebay is starting to get desperate to be more like Amazon. And now they are teaming up with Amazon’s competitor (buy.com)? All in all, it was a fascinating earnings report. I noticed that you can read a transcript of the entire Earnings Conference Call at SeekingAlpha.com. You can see it here:
http://snipurl.com/300il