JULY FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 61.2 V 56.4E
- 1 yr median inflation expectations at 5.1% v 5.3% July Prelim. (5.1% in June)
- 5 yr median inflation expectations at 3.2% v 3.4% July Prelim. (3.4% in June)*JUN NEW HOME SALES: 530K V 503KE, -0.6% M/M V -1.8%E
- Prior revised from 512K to 533K
- M/M revised to -1.7% v -2.5% previous
- Median price $230,900 v 227,700 m/m
- New Home Inventory at Months 10 months v 10.4 Month prior (11.4 months recent high back in March)
Recent Posts:
- Economic Data and Earnings Schedule for July 27 2010
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index – Drops to Lowest Level Since July 2009
- Economic Data and Earnings Schedule for July 26, 2010
- Is The United States Worthy of a AAA Sovereign Rating?
- Crude Oil Market Summary 7/19/2010 to 07/23/2010
- Economic Data and Earnings Schedule for July 23, 2010
More on this topic
(What's this?)
Marc Faber: Massive Inflation and then War
(Expected Returns, 7/14/10)
New Home Sales at 13-Year Low
(Contrarian Profits, 3/26/08)
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COLLAPSE AMID SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH
(THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 7/1/10)
{ 6 comments }
Market is focusing on oil/natural gas prices declining. Rally for 2+ weeks back to 200 day EMA very likely. IWM, xlf, ndx likely to be leaders. Get out of the way on commodities as they fall and dollar strenghtens.
I assume the uptick in confidence is attributable to falling gas prices. Housing inventory is coming down. I guess that’s a sliver of good news. But the news this morning about the Australia bank writedowns is really troubling. More pain to come for financials regardless of $100 oil.
Steve,
Home inventory actually increased with the existing home sales data we got this week. Any increased sales of “new” homes is actually not good for the total housing market. Builders are dumping into the market at lower and lower prices to “move” their inventory. This brings down the prices further for the rest of the market.
Up tick in confidence is nothing more than an “oreo cookie” filling. When heatin gbills rack up this fall and unemployment continues to worsen the confidence will falter once again.
Hey Chuck,
Must have misread the data. Thought I was seeing inventory down to 10 months from a high of 11.4 in March. I can see your point sales with respect to depressed prices. Builders are definitely in a a bad place. Existing homes data is really awful.
SO everyone agrees with Jim? Jim what if there’s a couple bank runs in the meantime?
Not sure I necessarily agree with Jim. The whole rally we’ve had was a little too well staged. Did not like the price action of the VIX and VXO and that gives me pause about calling a huge rally for 2 weeks back to the 200 MA.