“35 percent chance of a global depression as deteriorating labor markets undermine consumer confidence”
That is the figure being circulated today in this article from Bloomberg.
Full Text of article can be found HERE
Corporate Debt Protection Costs Climb Amid Depression Concern
By Abigail Moses and Shannon D. Harrington
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) — The cost of protecting corporate debt from default jumped to a record in Europe and neared a high in the U.S. amid concern that the global recession will sink into a depression.
Credit-default swaps on a benchmark index tied to below- investment grade companies in Europe reached levels considered distressed for the first time. The cost to protect U.S. leveraged loans from default neared a record, and a benchmark gauge of credit risk tied to investment-grade companies including retailer J.C. Penney Co. and Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, also jumped as a private report showed the nation’s companies last month cut the most jobs in seven years.
“Markets are pricing somewhere between a recession and a depression, and that is what we are faced with,†said Philip Gisdakis, a Munich-based credit strategist at UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest bank. “We are already in a recession. The next economic phase will not be recession, but depression.â€
Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada climbed 8 basis points to 267 basis points as of 10:10 a.m. in New York, according to Barclays Capital. The index is at the highest since Nov. 20, when it traded at a record 284 basis points, prices from broker Phoenix Partners Group show.
Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly sub-investment grade credit ratings increased 65 basis points to 1,005 and earlier reached a record 1,010, JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices show. The index traded above 1,000 basis points for the first time, a level investors consider distressed.[...]
[...]UniCredit is forecasting a 35 percent chance of a global depression as deteriorating labor markets undermine consumer confidence.[...]


Chuck,
The link to the Bloomberg article isn’t valid. Can you update it when you have a chance?
Thanks!
Fixed