American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan

That is the name of the program that President Elect Obama is calling his plan to pull this nation out of this severe recession.

From CNN:

President-elect Barack Obama on Thursday said Congress must take “dramatic action” on his economic aid package as soon as possible, warning that a failure to do so would have devastating long-term consequences for the nation.

“If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits,” he said.

Obama laid the groundwork for urgent movement on his “American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan,” a plan he says will save or create more than 3 million jobs and invest in health care, energy and education, among other priorities.[...]

RebelTraders note: At first it was ‘create’ jobs, now it is ‘save or create’. That makes me believe that he knows the job losses will be even more severe than even he first expected.

[...]The president-elect said the cost of his plan would be “considerable” and would “certainly add to the budget deficit in the short term.” He did not put a price tag on the stimulus package, but observers have estimated it would cost about $800 Billion.

“Government at every level will have to tighten its belt, but we’ll help struggling states avoid harmful budget cuts, as long as they take responsibility and use the money to maintain essential services like police, fire, education, and health care,” he said.[...]

[...]Obama said that the economic crisis was the consequence of an “era of profound irresponsibility” in which “too many Wall Street executives made imprudent and dangerous decisions, seeking profits with too little regard for risk, too little regulatory scrutiny, and too little accountability.”[...]

So now the ARRP (American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan) will be the next big thing. Will it work? Will killing the budget deficit further come back to bite him in the butt? Many question there are. But one thing is a fact… the United States is in a severe recession and it is continuing to slide further into it even now.

We are in a secular bear market. There will be periods of bullish rallies from time to time, but the overall course of the market for years to come will be secular bearish.

I warned of the deteriorating trends back in September 2007 and said a bear market began in November of 2007 even as naysayers kept saying I was wrong. Even with Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson saying in early 2008 that the nation would avoid a recession I kept saying they were wrong.So you can see why I don’t put all that much faith in Government leaders to ‘say it like it is’. Even Hank paulson said in early 2008 that he thought the nation would grow and would add 500,000 jobs in 2008. Well that statement sure turned out to be wrong.

Do I have confidence in the new President Elect to correct the mess? Not yet. Too much damage has been done already to simply put it all back together. This is a new economy and it is not pretty.

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Comments

  1. Lisa says:

    Obama cannot fix the mess, his whole speech is just the same political buzz we’ve heard for years. And excuse me, but he said that only gov’t can provide what’s necessary to move the economy forward (paraphrased). It’s gonna be a very long four years.

  2. Chuck says:

    Well said Lisa !

  3. ChipSeal says:

    ““Government at every level will have to tighten its belt, but we’ll help struggling states avoid harmful budget cuts, as long as they take responsibility and use the money to maintain essential services like police, fire, education, and health care,” he said.[...]”

    Um, where is police and fire in the state budget? Will BHO use the fed to bail out local municipalities? Where will the bailout stop?

    Was congress culpable in any way for creating this mess, or is it just the fault of Wall Street, Senator Obama?

    Sadly, elections matter. McCain was just as much a big government politician as BHO, so the Republican party dropped the ball as well.

    (Full disclosure: I am not a member of any organized party. I am a Republican.)

  4. Dave in Seattle says:

    ChipSeal, your implication is correct: the Republican party is in disarray. Is there fiscal responsibility out there anywhere?? (besides the reformed conusmer?)

    It took years and it took many culprits and many WMD to make this mess, only a whole lot of time will get us out.

  5. KyLafoon says:

    Per Obama’s speech. “Only government can break the vicious cycles that are crippling our economy –- ”
    That statement should have made all of America’s back hair stand straight out…
    Where is the outrage?!?!

  6. Miracletech says:

    Anyone that has seen my comments or my blog (Tufftrade)knows I’m pretty cynical about those running the government & the markets. But I’m mildly optimistic that the economy will start to improve slowly under Obama.

    If I’m proven right a year or 2 from now, I’ll point to this comment & tell everyone what a great market analyst I am. If I’m proven wrong I won’t mention it again.