Black Swan Chronicles: Japanese Exports Tumble In August
Japan is one of the world economies that relies heavily on having great exports to compensate the costs it faces with having had to cope with a high public and corporate debt during the “lost decade”.
It is also often a bellwether of the global economy, as many of its high-end technological products need a buoyant market for people to consent those types of investment.
And after a transient effect, due mainly to stimuluses, the recession seems to be catching up with the economy in Japan as everywhere else. In August, Japan’s exports fell by 36 %, while the imports also sharply contracted. As the crisis deepens, layoffs have also picked up pace in Japan, thus compounding the issue in some measure.
The ill tidings from Japan bode ill for China, whose economy is largely dependent on exports and who dedicated a great part of its stimulus to increase its capacity and infrastructures. A Chinese slump can be indirectly predicted to be soon in the books by the fall by 27.6 % of Japanese exports to China.
As the effect of the aids start to dissipate, the woobly global economy is now obliged to “walk on its own feet”, and the hope of the Keynesian policies adopted so far, is that the extra government spending will allow the economy to feel new economic “blood” flow into its veins.
So far, that seems uncertain, as a number of structural issues have not been addressed, among others the “hidden debt” in the books of the US banks.
Japan’s exports tumbled 36 percent in August — with car shipments falling by half — and imports also contracted sharply, the government said Thursday, showing the world’s No. 2 economy remains mired in a deep slump.
Declines in automobile and steel exports were especially pronounced, the Ministry of Finance said. Exports fell for the 11th straight month to 4.5 trillion yen ($49 billion).
“We are not seeing an improvement in exports due to a continued slump in global demand,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. “Japan’s exports were particularly hit hard by stagnant demand in Asia and China.”
Imports, meanwhile, dropped 41.3 percent from a year earlier to 4.3 trillion yen, reflecting weak consumption within Japan, where the jobless rate is at a record high as companies shed workers. Consumer finance company Aiful Corp. said Thursday it will cut 2,000 jobs, or about 44 percent of its work force.
The incoming government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is seeking to boost consumption and help households with a range of consumer-oriented proposals, including cutting tolls on highways and giving families with children $275 a month through junior high.
But critics say the Democrats, who unseated the long-ruling conservatives in last month’s election, don’t have any clear strategy to achieve long-term economic growth.
Japan’s economy managed to climb out of a yearlong recession in the April-June quarter, growing at an annual pace of 2.3 percent. But with the jobless rate at a record 5.7 percent, growth prospects look murky.
The trade figures showed that the monthly trade surplus, or the amount exports exceeded imports, came to 190 billion yen.
Auto exports in August plunged a staggering 50 percent, while shipments of steel products dropped 43.3 percent, the ministry said. Exports of light oil products fell 59.9 percent due to faltering demand in China and Vietnam, it said.
Japan’s U.S.-bound shipments declined 34.4 percent to 713.1 billion yen, marking the 24th straight month of year-on-year decline. Among exported goods to the U.S., metal products nose-dived 82.2 percent.
Exports to Asia tumbled 30.6 percent to 2.6 trillion yen. Japan’s exports to China were down 27.6 percent.
Japan’s exports to the European Union dropped 45.9 percent to 514.3 billion yen.

