Comments on: Sunday Musings – The Economy Is Fine http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/11/15/sunday-musings-the-economy-is-fine/ Stock Market and Financial Analysis Without The Hype Thu, 18 Mar 2010 16:50:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Caldera http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/11/15/sunday-musings-the-economy-is-fine/comment-page-1/#comment-13732 Caldera Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:19:41 +0000 http://blog.rebeltraders.net/?p=9337#comment-13732 Dave, Thanks for the information. There was a trend up from Feb till June. A drop back in July-August. The rise in Sept/Oct no doubt had something to do with the Cash for Clunkers program. However, it looks like Chuck has given us something to think about. Now the drop back continues with Sept 73.5, Oct 70.6, and Nov. 66. There is a general lack of confidence and it has a lot to do with unemployment... it's hard to have a lot of confidence when you are struggling to get by. Dave,

Thanks for the information. There was a trend up from Feb till June. A drop back in July-August. The rise in Sept/Oct no doubt had something to do with the Cash for Clunkers program. However, it looks like Chuck has given us something to think about. Now the drop back continues with Sept 73.5, Oct 70.6, and Nov. 66. There is a general lack of confidence and it has a lot to do with unemployment… it’s hard to have a lot of confidence when you are struggling to get by.

]]> By: andy http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/11/15/sunday-musings-the-economy-is-fine/comment-page-1/#comment-13729 andy Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:37:45 +0000 http://blog.rebeltraders.net/?p=9337#comment-13729 Volume has been poor for a while now. With breadth doing well over the last several days it seems volume is leaning bearish while breadth is leaning bullish. Back in July a similar battle took place (although breadth indicators were a bit stronger at that time). Breadth won that battle. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out here. With indicators, sometimes they just don’t matter…until they do. Is volume ready to matter? We’ll see. Volume has been poor for a while now. With breadth doing well over the last several days it seems volume is leaning bearish while breadth is leaning bullish. Back in July a similar battle took place (although breadth indicators were a bit stronger at that time). Breadth won that battle. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out here. With indicators, sometimes they just don’t matter…until they do. Is volume ready to matter? We’ll see.

]]> By: Dave http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/11/15/sunday-musings-the-economy-is-fine/comment-page-1/#comment-13723 Dave Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:35:33 +0000 http://blog.rebeltraders.net/?p=9337#comment-13723 Note -- Just so that I won't be selective..the November index was "66" and my comment above should have noted "two consecutive months down". Still doesn't change my central point that if numbers are used they should be used regardless of the direction. Note — Just so that I won’t be selective..the November index was “66″ and my comment above should have noted “two consecutive months down”. Still doesn’t change my central point that if numbers are used they should be used regardless of the direction.

]]> By: Dave http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/11/15/sunday-musings-the-economy-is-fine/comment-page-1/#comment-13722 Dave Mon, 16 Nov 2009 03:22:18 +0000 http://blog.rebeltraders.net/?p=9337#comment-13722 Very good post, Chuck. Thanks for the info. I will take exception to the comment regarding the Michigan consumer confidence index. Once again, this is a great example of selectively cherry-picking data to support the desired conclusion. The consumer confidence data went down last month and it is "forward looking" but as the numbers were "rising" each and every month from February through June 2009 there was never a mention of the indicator being "forward looking". Five consecutive months higher and it is "not" forward looking........one month down and it becomes forward looking? The data only became relevent when it "fit". I think it is great that you reported the data. I can only assume if the consumer number rises next month (or a subsequent month) you will report that as a bullish "forward looking" data point? For those that are interested, here is the consumer numbers for the entire year..(note -- the October number is still the second or third highest number in almost two years). You decide if these "forward looking numbers" are trending for the better or worse". 2009-01-01 61.2 2009-02-01 56.3 2009-03-01 57.3 2009-04-01 65.1 2009-05-01 68.7 2009-06-01 70.8 2009-07-01 66.0 2009-08-01 65.7 2009-09-01 73.5 2009-10-01 70.6 Very good post, Chuck. Thanks for the info.

I will take exception to the comment regarding the Michigan consumer confidence index. Once again, this is a great example of selectively cherry-picking data to support the desired conclusion. The consumer confidence data went down last month and it is “forward looking” but as the numbers were “rising” each and every month from February through June 2009 there was never a mention of the indicator being “forward looking”. Five consecutive months higher and it is “not” forward looking……..one month down and it becomes forward looking? The data only became relevent when it “fit”.

I think it is great that you reported the data. I can only assume if the consumer number rises next month (or a subsequent month) you will report that as a bullish “forward looking” data point?

For those that are interested, here is the consumer numbers for the entire year..(note — the October number is still the second or third highest number in almost two years). You decide if these “forward looking numbers” are trending for the better or worse”.

2009-01-01 61.2
2009-02-01 56.3
2009-03-01 57.3
2009-04-01 65.1
2009-05-01 68.7
2009-06-01 70.8
2009-07-01 66.0
2009-08-01 65.7
2009-09-01 73.5
2009-10-01 70.6

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