Economic Collapse Warnings From Societe Generale
Clients of the large French bank Societe Generale are being told how to prepare for a possible global economic collapse.
[...] In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems[...]
In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of problems[...]
[...] “As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse,” said the 68-page report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.
Under the French bank’s “Bear Case” scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would fall back to $50 in 2010.
Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.[...]
[...]The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it [the report] said.[...] (Source: UK Telegraph)
For those of you that read this article and are considering the prospect of building an underground bunker, stocking up on water supplies, and holding gold to bribe the border guards……remember, this article specifically states that..
“It is an exploration of the dangers, not a forecast.”
It also states that this is a “worst-case debt scenario”. Anyone can create a worst case armageddon scenario for anything. The worst case scenario for earth is that the sun will explode. There is absolutely no evidence given in the excerpts shown from this article that this scenario would play out. It is also mentioned that —— “Under the French bank’s “Bear Case†scenario (the gloomiest of three possible outcomes)”—– So I assume that if this is the “gloomiest of three possible outcomes” that there were two more favorable outcomes (but these outcomes were not discussed or described in the post).
Don’t jump just yet. All is not lost….
OBTW…Previous post from “anonymous” is Dave.
Dave, The UK Telegraph writer did not detail the other scenarios. The article was about this one scenario that has been provided as a potential outcome. It did not mention bomb shelters, stocking up on water, or even bribing border guards.
If you are going to post a comment I would at least appreciate sticking to what was written.
Funny thing was that in mid 2007 we had similar ’scenarios’ of an economic crisis and everyone said they were off their rockers then. Don’t immediately discount everything that sounds ’scary or bad’. While it is one of three outcomes it is still a possibility that one should at a minimum be aware of. Sticking ones head in the ground is what in some ways got us to this mess.
The past decade has shown us that more and more of the “that can’t happen’ actually does.
dave is just another freemind.
Chuck…I did not mention that the article directly said anything about bomb shelters. I attempted to allude to those people that might take action after reading an article about a “pending world economic crisis”. But thanks for the clarification.
Arnold…Another Freemind? Hmmmmmmm…maybe, dude.
it’s not a forecast because it doesn’t take into account a global warming effect…
but French are very reliable source of predictions since they have the data on the economy subjected to confiscatory tax policies since their Revolution.
Anonymous Dave–by saying remember you can’t make it worth listening…
Chuck’s weekend posts have shown a pattern of “chicken little” lately. The market is not going back to 666 and it is not going back to 1400. It has been right here around 1100 for the last ten years. That is a sideways market.
Visiting this blog every now and then, I have the impression that Chuck has not sorted out a proper trading plan. The charts are different each time I look and the timeframe of the trades are different too. I strongly believe that you need a detailed trading plan to succeed in this business, a trading plan that defines your edge and the way in which you will exploit it. You work very hard on looking at the economy without focusing, it seems, on the market.
Whatever happened to Freemind?