There are many ways to gauge the ‘sentiment’ and/or the financial health of Americans. The Government conducts their own surveys, there are cold call surveys from independent research firms, and there are Wall Street analysts giving everyone who will listen their forecast of the consumer spending habits.
Thanks to the Internet (do we really have to thank Al Gore for the Internet?) and the giant search engines a vast amount of data is available to us that we could not obtain previously, at least not easily. We all know that Google keeps track of every search ever made. Privacy concerns have been raised about this time and time again. But tonight’s article is not about privacy issues, that is a whole topic in of itself.
This article deals directly with just what people in the United States are searching for on the Internet. There is a social stigma attached to asking for information on certain things. A person may be too embarrassed to ask for some types of information, perhaps they are fearful that a friend or relative might find out. So that brings us to the Google and what people search for in the privacy of their own homes (or wherever they access the net from).
Click on ‘read more’ for the shocking graphs of data I was able to extract…
By analyzing search data metrics provided by Google (Google Insights) we are able to piece together some rather striking trends. While some may argue that web searches for particular information in not a time tested methodology, I will argue that this method could be a very useful and accurate gauge of American’s and their needs, especially when considering the stigma attached to the type of information I researched on Google and present to you here.
The following graphs will all speak for themselves. I should point out that I do not find any comfort in knowing the results that some of this data reveals. Anyone who dares say I enjoy seeing misery is extremely mistaken. But sometimes hard questions have to be asked to get a real sense of what people are asking help for on the Internet.
Traffic from the search term “WALK AWAY FROM MORTGAGE”
Walk Away From Mortgage
Traffic from the search term “FOOD STAMPS”
Food Stamps
Traffic from the search term “BANKRUPTCY LAWYER”
Bankruptcy Lawyer
Traffic from the search term “REDUCE DEBT”
Reduce Debt
Traffic from the search term “NEED MONEY”
Need Money
Traffic from the search term “HELP FINDING A JOB”
Help Finding A Job
Traffic from the search term “PAWN SHOPS”
Pawn Shops
In addition to the graph shown above for the search term ‘pawn shops’, I have also created an animated GIF file which shows the time relationship component from 2004 to the present in an animated view.
Searches For Pawn Shops Over Time
The information presented in the above graphs reveals just what American’s are searching for, and the growth of that information being sought. Like I said at the beginning; some people will be embarrassed to ask for some kinds of information, some may even give wrong answers to official survey takers just because of embarrassment. But thanks to the Internet and Google one can learn as much as he or she needs by searching for it in private.Studying this type of data I feel is very useful for understanding where people are at in their lives.
The information I presented here does not give me any confidence that the American consumer is healthy. In some regards we can surmise that the financial health of the American people is still deteriorating. And with a little over 70% of the U.S. GDP dependent on consumer spending then we can only deduct that the economy is still in a depressed state.
The last graph I did not enjoy learning about. But, someone has to ask these questions. I for one don’t like this data result that will follow, but I don’t stick my head in the ground and ignore it either.
Traffic for the search term “HOW DO I KILL MYSELF“
How Do I Kill Myself
Recent Posts:
- Taxpayers to the Rescue of Afghanistan Banking Crisis?
- Economic Data and Earnings Schedule for September 2 2010
- Christina Romer Makes a Final Recommendation Before Leaving To Teach Keynesian Economics
- Homebuilder Hovnanian (HOV) Reports Dismal Quarter
- Auto Sales Data for August 2010
- Stock Market Rewind – September 1, 2010
Interesting! I like the animated GIF file….
link -deleted by admin-
Free blog…Brett Steenbarger is a reputable guy. Just for sharing and widening our trading experience…
RT NOTE: I don’t endorse the site recommendation contained in this comment. I know of the site that was mentioned and this is why I can’t endorse the recommendation.
Again, I will ask that comments pertain to the article at hand.
Dc.. please keep comments related to the topic.
Chuck,can you overlay a graph of the governments unemployment data on your search charts? That would be cool to see.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15580.html
If you want a thorough breakdown of the unemployment figures, pls find the above useful link…by Mike Shedlock.
Were is the data to back this up? What are the raw search numbers over time for each graph?
If ONE person performs one of these searches, and then a second person does the same search, that equates to a 100% rise. Not something to hang ones hat on though.
WW – Unless you work for the Government and have a court order you will be unable to obtain raw data which would include IP addresses. This is a normalized statistical data set that Google provides. Here at Syracuse University we used Google search data in a research project last year and you can be assured that if only two people had previously searched for a phrase or word the data would not register. Normalized data provides a fairly reliable statistics study with all things considered.
Search data is aggregated over millions of users without personally identifiable information, and is powered by computer algorithms. It will only shows results for search terms that receive a significant amount of traffic, and enforces minimum thresholds for inclusion.
So where did Rebel Traders arrive at their results?
Or are they unwilling to show their data?
To Matt:
Make no bones about it, this blog is as much about expressing a political view as it is about investing.
WW – How does one voice a political view by presenting facts? Someone presents some search metrics that are provided by Google. Chuck did not make them up, if you are so smart and wonder how this information can be obtained may I suggest you try , uhhhhhhh GOOGLE. How dumb can one be.
Try searching Google for search statistics. If you guys represent the majority of men in this human race then we are doomed.
Last time I checked, one had to pay to get the type of data purported to be delivered via these graphs. There are plenty of companies that make money doing just that. NOT something that is readily available to the average google searcher.
I can type in each of the phrases but they don’t yield data to build a trend with, just a bunch of “hits”.
Folks, As I discussed in the video tonight (just posted) the comments relating to this article have been absolutely childish with the exception of a few.
1. The search metric data provided by Google is free. It is not politically biased, it is simple statistical analysis. To go and see for yourself here is the web address:
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#
The notion that Google will call a one person increase in search terms a 100% gain is just ridiculous. One has to understand some basics of statistical analysis techniques to appreciate what was presented.
2. Comments are for discussions pertaining to the article for which they attach to.
3. DC, TraderFeed has written some good books I’m sure in his days. No argument there. I fully agree that the study of trading psychology and sociology in general in mass is important for a full study of one self and of the market as a whole. A book that I have enjoyed is ‘Trading In The Zone” by Mark Douglas. A well written book dealing with ones trading and understand obstacles that we harbor in the mind.
My only argument about the TraderFeed site is that while he may be good with articles that pertain to the psychology of the markets, I don’t find his analysis of the markets on a technical level to be very useful. It is my opinion that he stays fairly neutral about the market no matter what direction it is going. In 2007 he was still calling for a significant bull run when I had already declared a bear market was upon us.
In the Spring of 2008 he expected the retracement to last throughout the summer while I on the other hand explicitly explained it was a bear market rally and it was ending.
I don’t disrespect TraderFeed, it is just that if one is going to be a technical analyst one has to actually form an opinion and not be all over the map.
4. The comments will be for friendly (and intelligent) discussions of articles. Healthy debate is good and I encourage it. But if comments descent into nonsense and even calling into question the abilities or intent of another commenter then you will be banned from the site. Posting comments here is a privilege, not a right.
5. If you have certain political views and/or market skills and you want to share with the world I encourage you to begin your own site. My site will not become a public graffiti wall of bashing others for their views of the market, political views, or even a free billboard for promoting other sites.
When the RebelForums are revitalized, then that will be your place for open discussions, trade ideas that each and everyone of you share if you desire. But the comments section here are for intelligent discussions (pro or con) regarding the article to which they are attached.
“1. The search metric data provided by Google is free. It is not politically biased, it is simple statistical analysis. To go and see for yourself here is the web address:
Quite true, data in and of itself has no bias. But when one goes at the data with a pre-determined agenda, you can make the data push your political message.
As the data is normalized, it doesn’t really tell you how many people did a specific search, it just tells you that the searchs increased in comparison to the totality of all searches.
Searches on “Republican”, and “conservative” show decrease in interest.
Entering PIE in the search yields a spike every Thanksgiving, while the trend is increasing over time.
With a population of 300 million, many people are searching for many things. The data must be shown quantitatatively. While going from 1 person to two people yields a 100% increase, it is also true that without background data, the normalized data provided by google just shows a trend, not the significance of the trend.
How many people a searching google with the search topic “I want to commit suicide, and what does the increase reflect numerically?