Commercial Real Estate Continues To Falter
The Bloomberg article says it all -
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) — Commercial property values in the U.S. declined in October to the lowest level in more than seven years as unemployment reduced demand for apartments, offices and retail space. [...]
[...]Values are dropping as U.S. unemployment climbs and consumers cut spending. Office vacancies may approach 20 percent next year as employers hold off hiring, commercial property brokers Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. and Grubb & Ellis Co. said last month. [...]
[...]An estimated $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate debt is scheduled to mature over the next five years and Foresight estimates that 53 percent of it is “underwater,” meaning the value of the property is less than the mortgage, Anderson said.
[...]The delinquency rate for U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to 4.47 percent as of the end of November, Moody’s Investors Service said on Dec. 10. That’s almost six times the year-ago rate of 0.75 percent. (emphasis added)
Delinquencies for commercial real estate mortgages held by banks may rise to 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter and reach as much as 8 percent next year, Anderson said. [...]


Chuck:
I’ve long been of the opinion that there is a looming crash in commercial real estate, compared to which the crash in residential real estate will end up looking like chicken feed. How many defaults in 3-4 bedroom homes does it take to equal the default on just one shopping mall or just one skyscraper?
It’s been my opinion that at some point the banks and insurance companies who finance large commercial projects will be coming back to the government for TARP II, and it won’t be for any measley $700B, rather, it will be in the trillions. I don’t think this “too big to fail” crap is very popular with the working, tax paying, HONEST citizens of this country but it probably won’t make any difference.
Chuck, what do you think?
Thanks,
BlackBear