Stock Market Summary - Holy Crap

The title sums it up…

From the dismal earnings reports during the pre market hours, the Hank Paulson press conference, and the earnings warning from Intel made for a continued lack of confidence in just about anything.

As I have continued to say… the lows of October will be tested once again and it appears that could occur very soon. That test of those lows could even come in the overnight hours tonight in the S&P futures market.

When the lows of October are reached it will likely resemble a battle scene from the movie Lord of the Rings. I envision a strong battle between the bears and the bulls at that critical price level. If the October 10th lows fail to hold it will open the door wide open for the S&P 500 to decline to the October 2002 lows.

We are at a very critical point in the market. Everything hinges on the October lows. If they hold and a bounce follows, then the market will stay alive for period of time that is difficult to predict. But.. it is important to remind you that my view remains firm in that the October lows will eventually fail and the lows of 2002 will be next. And those lows will also be breached in time.

Don’t let a bear market rally fool you into believing a new bull market is at hand. A bear market rally should be sold, not bought.

When Best Buy (BBY) reported earnings this morning the president of the company had the following to say…

“In 42 years of retailing, we’ve never seen such difficult times for the consumer,”

“People are making dramatic changes in how much they spend, and we’re not immune from those forces.”

And did you catch the statements from US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson today (Click here for his statements)?

I’ll translate his long statement for you:

-My original idea for the bail out money is not working. I don’t know what I am doing. And I’m going to try something new and see if that does anything.-

That is essentially the read the market took from his prepared remarks this morning. The $700 Billion bail out package continues to be an epic failure of the US Government. The market is really concerned now that the Government is losing all control of the crisis. Hank Paulson’s remarks reinforced this sentiment.

Also this morning was a joint statement issued by the FDIC, Federal Reserve, and the Office of the Comptroller (Click here to read the press release that I posted earlier).

I’ll translate this for you as well…

-To all banks: Please start lending again… pretty please. If you don’t start lending again you will kill Christmas and any hopes of the US economy ever seeing the light of day again-

Market Close - Intel (INTC) Issues Earnings Warning

Moments after the close of the market Intel (INTC) issued an earnings warning.

INTEL’S Q4 BUSINESS BELOW EXPECTATIONS; GUIDES Q4 R$9B  V $10.36BE; GUIDES Q4 GM 55% (+/- COUPLE OF POINTS)
- The prior Q4 sales guidance was $10.1B-$10.9B and the prior Q4 GM guidance was 59% (+/- a couple of points)
-  Spending (R&D plus MG&A) is expected to be approximately $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter, lower than the previous expectation of approximately $2.9 billion, primarily due to lower revenue- and profit-related spending.
- For the full year, spending is expected to be approximately $11.4 billion, lower than the previous expectation of approximately $11.5 billion.
- Company Comments: Revenue is being affected by significantly weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments. In addition, the PC supply chain is aggressively reducing component inventories.

Futures are declining on this news

Full market wrap up later tonight.

Market Update - Chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

An updated chart of the one I posted earlier this morning. Still in the down channel I drew.

Additional Analysis of the S&P 500 E-mini futures

S&P 500 E-mini futures - Intra-day support/resistance

This is what I am currently watching for support and resistance today. This is a 30 minute time frame chart and these levels apply only to the very short term.

US Treasury - Hank Paulson - Special Remarks on Rescue Package

Here is the text of what Hank will say:

November 12, 2008
HP-1265

Remarks by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. on Financial Rescue Package and Economic Update

Washington - Good morning. I will provide an update on the state of the financial system, our economy, and our strategy for continued implementation of the financial rescue package.

Current State of Global Financial System

The actions taken by Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC in October have clearly helped stabilize our financial system. Before we acted, we were at a tipping point. Credit markets were largely frozen, denying financial institutions, businesses and consumers access to vital funding and credit. U.S. and European financial institutions were under extreme pressure, and investor confidence in our system was dangerously low.

We also acted quickly and in coordination with colleagues around the world to stabilize the global financial system. Going into the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in early October, I made clear that we would use the financial rescue package granted by Congress to purchase equity directly from financial institutions – the fastest and most productive means of using our new authorities to stabilize our financial system. We launched our capital purchase program the following week when we announced that nine of the largest U.S. financial institutions, holding approximately 55 percent of U.S. banking assets would sell $125 billion in preferred stock to the Treasury. At the same time, the FDIC announced it would temporarily guarantee all newly issued senior unsecured debt of participating organizations for up to three years. In addition, the FDIC provided an unlimited guarantee on non-interest bearing transaction accounts that expires at the end of next year.

As I assess where we are today, I believe we have taken the necessary steps to prevent a broad systemic event. Both at home and around the world we have already seen signs of improvement. Our system is stronger and more stable than just a few weeks ago. Although this is a major accomplishment, we have many challenges ahead of us. Our financial system remains fragile in the face of an economic downturn here and abroad, and financial institutions’ balance sheets still hold significant illiquid assets. Market turmoil will not abate until the biggest part of the housing correction is behind us. Our primary focus must be recovery and repair.

Housing and Mortgage Finance

Overall, we are in a better position than we were, but we must address the continued challenges of a weak economy, especially the housing correction and lending contraction.

On housing, we have worked aggressively to avoid preventable foreclosures and keep mortgage financing available. In October 2007, we helped establish the HOPE NOW Alliance, a coalition of mortgage servicers, investors and counselors, to help struggling homeowners avoid preventable foreclosures. HOPE NOW created a streamlined protocol to assist struggling borrowers who could afford their homes with a loan modification. The industry is now helping 200,000 homeowners a month avoid foreclosure. In addition, HUD has created new programs to complement existing FHA options, and to refinance a larger number of struggling borrowers into affordable FHA mortgages.

Most significantly, we acted earlier this year to prevent the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing GSEs that now touch over 70 percent of mortgage originations. I clearly stated at that time three critical objectives: providing stability to financial markets, supporting the availability of mortgage finance, and protecting taxpayers – both by minimizing the near term costs to the taxpayer and by setting policymakers on a course to resolve the systemic risk created by the inherent conflict in the GSE structure.

Fortunately we acted, citing concerns about both the quality and quantity of GSE capital. Unfortunately, our actions proved all too necessary. The GSEs were failing, and if they did fail, it would have materially exacerbated the recent market turmoil and more profoundly impacted household wealth: from family budgets, to home values, to savings for college and retirement.

Earlier this week, Fannie Mae reported a record loss, including write-downs of its deferred tax assets that make up a significant portion of its capital. We monitor closely the performance of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and both are performing within the range of our expectations. The magnitude of the losses at Fannie Mae were within the range of what we expected, and further confirms the need for our strong actions.

Eight weeks ago, Treasury took responsibility for supporting the agency debt securities and the agency MBS through a preferred stock purchase agreement that guarantees a positive net worth in each enterprise – effectively, a guarantee on GSE debt and agency MBS. We also established a credit facility to provide the GSEs the strongest possible liquidity backstop. As the enterprises go through this difficult housing correction we will, as needed and promised, purchase preferred shares under the terms of that agreement. The U.S. government honors its commitments, and investors can bank on it.

When we took action in September, I said that we would be entering a “time out” – a period where the new President and Congress must decide what role government in general, and the GSEs in particular, should play in the housing market. In my view, government support needs to be either explicit or non-existent, and structured to resolve the conflict between public and private purposes. And policymakers must address the issue of systemic risk. In the weeks ahead, I will share some thoughts outlining my views on long term reform.

In the meantime, the GSEs now operate on stable footing. They have strong government support backing both future capital and liquidity needs. We have stabilized the GSEs and limited systemic risk, and our authorities provide us with additional flexibility to use as necessary to accomplish our objectives.

Implementing the Financial Rescue Package

More recently, we have also taken extraordinary steps to support our financial markets and financial institutions. As credit markets froze in mid-September, the Administration asked Congress for broad tools and flexibility to rescue the financial system. We asked for $700 billion to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions. At the time, we believed that would be the most effective means of getting credit flowing again.

During the two weeks that Congress considered the legislation, market conditions worsened considerably. It was clear to me by the time the bill was signed on October 3rd that we needed to act quickly and forcefully, and that purchasing troubled assets – our initial focus – would take time to implement and would not be sufficient given the severity of the problem. In consultation with the Federal Reserve, I determined that the most timely, effective step to improve credit market conditions was to strengthen bank balance sheets quickly through direct purchases of equity in banks.

Of course, before that time, the only instances in which Treasury had taken equity positions was in rescuing a failing institution. Both the preferred stock purchase agreement for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Federal Reserve’s secured lending facility for AIG came with significant taxpayer protections and conditions. As we planned a capital purchase plan to support the overall financial system by strengthening balance sheets of a broad array of healthy banks, the terms had to be designed to encourage broad participation, balanced to ensure appropriate taxpayer protection and not impede the flow of private capital.

Capital Purchase Plan

We announced a plan on October 14th to purchase up to $250 billion in preferred stock in federally regulated banks and thrifts. By October 26th we had $115 billion out the door to eight large institutions. In Washington that is a land-speed record from announcing a program to getting funds out the door. We now have approved dozens of additional applications, and investments are being made in approved institutions. Although we are moving very quickly it will take time to complete legal contracts and execute investments in the significant number of institutions who meet the eligibility requirements and are approved, but we are on the path to getting this done.

Although this program’s primary purpose is stabilizing our financial system, banks must also continue lending. During times like these with a slowing economy and some deterioration in credit conditions, even the healthiest banks tend to become more risk-averse and restrain lending, and regulators’ actions have reinforced this lending restraint in the past. With a stronger capital base, our banks will be more confident and better positioned to play their necessary role to support economic activity. Today banking regulators issued a statement emphasizing that the extraordinary government actions taken by the Fed, Treasury and FDIC to stabilize and strengthen the banking system are not merely one-sided; all banks – not just those participating in the Capital Purchase Program – have benefited, so they all also have responsibilities in the areas of lending, dividend and compensation policies, and foreclosure mitigation. I commend this action and I am particularly focused on the importance of prudent bank lending to restore our economic growth.

Since announcing the Capital Purchase Program, we have been examining a wide range of ideas that can further strengthen the financial system and get lending going again to support the broader economy. First and foremost, because the system remains fragile, we must continue to stand ready to prevent systemic failures. That is the basis for Monday’s action to purchase preferred shares in AIG. The stability of our system remains the highest priority.

We must also allow markets and institutions to absorb the extensive array of new policies put in place in a very short period of time. The injection of up to $250 billion of capital into individual banks, the FDIC’s temporary guarantee of bank debt and the Federal Reserve’s multiple liquidity facilities for banks, money funds and commercial paper issuers have all significantly enhanced liquidity and helped improve market conditions.

Priorities for Remaining TARP Funds

We have evaluated options for most effectively deploying the remaining TARP funds, and have identified three critical priorities. First, we must continue to reinforce the stability of the financial system, so that banks and other institutions critical to the provision of credit are able to support economic recovery and growth. Although the financial system has stabilized, both banks and non-banks may well need more capital given their troubled asset holdings, projections for continued high rates of foreclosures and stagnant U.S. and world economic conditions. Second, the important markets for securitizing credit outside of the banking system also need support. Approximately 40 percent of U.S. consumer credit is provided through securitization of credit card receivables, auto loans and student loans and similar products. This market, which is vital for lending and growth, has for all practical purposes ground to a halt. Addressing these two priorities will have powerful impacts on the overall financial system, the strength of our financial institutions and the availability of consumer credit. Third, we continue to explore ways to reduce the risk of foreclosure.

Over these past weeks we have continued to examine the relative benefits of purchasing illiquid mortgage-related assets. Our assessment at this time is that this is not the most effective way to use TARP funds, but we will continue to examine whether targeted forms of asset purchase can play a useful role, relative to other potential uses of TARP resources, in helping to strengthen our financial system and support lending. But other strategies I will outline will help to alleviate the pressure of illiquid assets.

Further Strategies

First, we are designing further strategies for building capital in financial institutions. Stronger capital positions will enable financial institutions to better manage the illiquid assets on their books and better ensure that they remain healthy. Any future program should maintain our principle of encouraging participation of healthy institutions while protecting taxpayers. We are carefully evaluating programs which would further leverage the impact of a TARP investment by attracting private capital, potentially through matching investments. In developing a potential matching program, we will also consider capital needs of non-bank financial institutions not eligible for the current capital program; broadening access in this way would bring both benefits and challenges. Non-bank financial institutions provide credit that is essential to U.S. businesses and consumers. However, many are not directly regulated and are active in a wide range of businesses, and taxpayer protections in a program of this sort would be more difficult to achieve. Also before embarking on a second capital purchase program, the first one must be completed, and we have to assess its impact and use this information to evaluate the size and focus of an additional program in light of existing economic and market conditions.

Second, we are examining strategies to support consumer access to credit outside the banking system. To date, Fed, FDIC and Treasury programs have been targeted at our banking system, and the non-bank consumer finance sector continues to face difficult funding issues. Specifically, the asset-backed securitization market has played a critical role for many years in lowering the cost and increasing the availability of consumer finance. This market is currently in distress, costs of funding have skyrocketed and new issue activity has come to a halt. Today, the illiquidity in this sector is raising the cost and reducing the availability of car loans, student loans and credit cards. This is creating a heavy burden on the American people and reducing the number of jobs in our economy. With the Federal Reserve we are exploring the development of a potential liquidity facility for highly-rated AAA asset-backed securities. We are looking at ways to possibly use the TARP to encourage private investors to come back to this troubled market, by providing them access to federal financing while protecting the taxpayers’ investment. By doing so, we can lower costs and increase credit availability for consumers. Addressing the needs of the securitization sector will help get lending going again, helping consumers and supporting the U.S. economy. While this securitization effort is targeted at consumer financing, the program we are evaluating may also be used to support new commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities lending.

Third, we are examining strategies to mitigate mortgage foreclosures. In crafting the financial rescue package, we and the Congress agreed that Treasury would use its leverage as a major purchaser of troubled mortgages to work with servicers and achieve more aggressive mortgage modification standards. Now that we are not planning to purchase illiquid mortgage assets, we must find another way to meet that commitment.

FDIC Chairman Bair has given us a model, in the mortgage modification protocol she developed with IndyMac Bank. Through the end of October, the FDIC has completed loan modifications for 3,500 borrowers, with several thousand more modifications currently being processed. These modifications have reduced payments for participating homeowners by an average of $380 month, or about 23 percent. We have worked with the FHFA, the GSEs, HUD and the Hope Now alliance who yesterday announced a streamlined industry-wide modification program that for the first time adopts an explicit affordability target similar to the model pioneered at IndyMac. With this commitment, the GSEs and large portfolio investors are setting a new industry standard for foreclosure mitigation. Potentially hundreds of thousands more struggling borrowers will be enabled to stay in their homes at an affordable monthly mortgage payment.

Beyond these efforts, there has been significant work to design and evaluate a number of proposals to induce further modifications. Each of these would, however, require substantial government subsidies. The FDIC, for example, has developed a proposal that Treasury and others in the Administration continue to discuss. I believe it is an important idea. As we evaluate the merits of any new proposal, we also will have to identify and justify the means to finance it. We must be careful to distinguish this type of assistance, which essentially involves direct spending, from the type of investments that are intended to promote financial stability, protect the taxpayer, and be recovered under the TARP legislation. Maximizing loan modifications, nonetheless, is a key part of working through the housing correction and maintaining the quality of communities across the nation, and we will continue working hard to make progress here.

We will continue to pursue the three strategies I have just outlined: how best to strengthen the capital base of our financial system; how best to support the asset-backed securitization market that is critical to consumer finance, and how to increase foreclosure mitigation efforts. All of these strategies are important, but ensuring the financial system has sufficient capital is essential to getting credit flowing to consumers and businesses and that is where the bulk of the remaining TARP funds should be deployed — in a program to support the system and as a contingency reserve for addressing any unforeseen systemic events.

We are focused on developing and preparing programs which can be implemented for each of these strategies. We will continue to brief President-elect Obama’s transition team on all of these issues.

Global Challenge

Of course managing through this market turmoil while mitigating the impact of the credit crisis is a global as well as a national issue. We in the U.S. are well aware and humbled by our own failings and recognize our special responsibility to the global economy. The U.S. housing correction exposed gaping shortcomings in the outdated U.S. regulatory system, shortcomings in other regulatory regimes and excesses in U.S. and European financial institutions. These institutions found themselves with large holdings of structured products, including complex and opaque mortgage-backed securities. Some European institutions were characterized by high leverage, exposure to their own housing markets, exposure to Central European institutions, weak business models or overly aggressive expansion, while others faced weaknesses because of inadequate depositor protection systems. It should not be surprising that after 13 months of stress in the global capital markets, banks from the U.S. to the U.K., from Germany to Iceland, from Russia to France, had difficulties that exposed some of these weaknesses for the first time. For some of these banks, this proved to be a hurdle too high and government action was necessary to support financial stability.

In that regard the G7 Finance Ministers meeting last month represented a major turning point in stabilizing the global financial system as the ministers came together to support a number of powerful strategies that were soon turned into effective actions in the United States and Europe. It is also clear that our first priority must be recovery and repair. And of course we must take strong actions to fix our system so that the world does not have to suffer something like this ever again. The Leaders summit President Bush will be hosting this weekend marks a very important step in what will be an ongoing process of recovery and reform.

And to adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us. Of course, it is already clear that we must address a number of significant issues, such as improving risk management practices, compensation practices, oversight of mortgage origination and the securitization process, credit rating agencies, OTC derivative market infrastructure and regulatory policies, practices and regimes in our respective countries. And we recognize that our financial institutions and our markets are global, but our regulatory regimes are national, so we will examine how best to improve cooperation and information sharing to foster global financial system stability.

But let us not forget one fundamental issue which lies at the heart of our problems. Over a period of years, persistent and growing global imbalances fueled a dramatic increase in capital flows, low interest rates, excessive risk taking and a global search for return. Those excesses cannot be attributed to any single nation. There is no doubt that low U.S. savings are a significant factor, but the lack of consumption and accumulation of reserves in Asia and oil-exporting countries and structural issues in Europe have also fed the imbalances.

If we only address particular regulatory issues – as critical as they are – without addressing the global imbalances that fueled recent excesses, we will have missed an opportunity to dramatically improve the foundation for global markets and economic vitality going forward. The pressure from global imbalances will simply build up again until it finds another outlet.

The nations attending this weekend’s summit represent the 20 largest economies in the world – over 77 percent of global GDP. President Bush is convening this group of countries to discuss and address problems such as global imbalances, making regulatory regimes more effective, fostering cooperation among regulators, and reforming international institutions to better address today’s global economy. We can’t simply task the IMF, the FSF or other International Financial Institutions to solve the problems, unless member nations all see that they have a shared interest in a solution. There are no easy answers, because until we reach a consensus on a broad-based reform agenda, we will not reach a solution. This weekend provides an opportunity for nations to take an important step, but only one step, on the necessary path to reform.

Conclusion

The road ahead, for the U.S. economy and the global economy, is full of challenges. And it will take strong leadership to address them. I am confident the United States, under this and the next Administration, will rise to these challenges. I will do everything I can to put us on the right path, both by working diligently through the end of my term and by working closely to ensure the smoothest possible transition.

FDIC Issues Special Statement

Press Release

________________________________

Joint Release Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Office of Thrift Supervision

________________________________

For Immediate Release November 12, 2008

Interagency Statement on Meeting the Needs of Creditworthy Borrowers

The Department of the Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Federal Reserve have recently put into place several programs designed to promote financial stability and to mitigate procyclical effects of the current market conditions. These programs make new capital widely available to U.S. financial institutions, broaden and increase the guarantees on bank deposit accounts and certain liabilities, and provide backup liquidity to U.S. banking organizations.

These efforts are designed to strengthen the capital foundation of our financial system and improve the overall functioning of credit markets.

The ongoing financial and economic stress has highlighted the crucial role that prudent bank lending practices play in promoting the nation’s economic welfare. The recent policy actions are designed to help support responsible lending activities of banking organizations, enhance their ability to fund such lending, and enable banking organizations to better meet the credit needs of households and business. At this critical time, it is imperative that all banking organizations and their regulators work together to ensure that the needs of creditworthy borrowers are met. As discussed below, to support this objective, consistent with safety and soundness principles and existing supervisory standards, each individual banking organization needs to ensure the adequacy of its capital base, engage in appropriate loss mitigation strategies and foreclosure prevention, and reassess the incentive implications of its compensation policies.

Lending to creditworthy borrowers

The agencies expect all banking organizations to fulfill their fundamental role in the economy as intermediaries of credit to businesses, consumers, and other creditworthy borrowers. Moreover, as a result of problems in financial markets, the economy will likely become increasingly reliant on banking organizations to provide credit formerly provided or facilitated by purchasers of securities. Lending to creditworthy borrowers provides sustainable returns for the lending organization and is constructive for the economy as a whole.

It is essential that banking organizations provide credit in a manner consistent with prudent lending practices and continue to ensure that they consider new lending opportunities on the basis of realistic asset valuations and a balanced assessment of borrowers’ repayment capacities.

However, if underwriting standards tighten excessively or banking organizations retreat from making sound credit decisions, the current market conditions may be exacerbated, leading to slower growth and potential damage to the economy as well as the long-term interests and profitability of individual banking organizations. Banking organizations should strive to maintain healthy credit relationships with businesses, consumers, and other creditworthy borrowers to enhance their own financial well-being as well as to promote a sound economy. The agencies have directed supervisory staffs to be mindful of the procyclical effects of an excessive tightening of credit availability and to encourage banking organizations to practice economically viable and appropriate lending activities.

Strengthening capital

Maintaining a strong capital position complements and facilitates a banking organization’s capacity and willingness to lend and bolsters its ability to withstand uncertain market conditions. Banking organizations should focus on effective and efficient capital planning and longer-term capital maintenance. An effective capital planning process requires a banking organization to assess both the risks to which it is exposed and the risk management processes in place to manage and mitigate those risks; evaluate its capital adequacy relative to its risks; and consider the potential impact on earnings and capital from economic downturns.

Further, an effective capital planning process requires a banking organization to recognize losses on bank assets and activities in a timely manner; maintain adequate loan loss provisions; and adhere to prudent dividend policies.

In particular, in setting dividend levels, a banking organization should consider its ongoing earnings capacity, the adequacy of its loan loss allowance, and the overall effect that a dividend payout would have on its cost of funding, its capital position, and, consequently, its ability to serve the expected needs of creditworthy borrowers,. Banking organizations should not maintain a level of cash dividends that is inconsistent with the organization’s capital position, that could weaken the organization’s overall financial health, or that could impair its ability to meet the needs of creditworthy borrowers. Supervisors will continue to review the dividend policies of individual banking organizations and will take action when dividend policies are found to be inconsistent with sound capital and lending policies.

Working with mortgage borrowers

The agencies expect banking organizations to work with existing borrowers to avoid preventable foreclosures, which can be costly to both the organizations and to the communities they serve, and to mitigate other potential mortgage-related losses. To this end, banking organizations need to ensure that their mortgage servicing operations are sufficiently funded and staffed to work with borrowers while implementing effective risk-mitigation measures.

Given escalating mortgage foreclosures, the agencies urge all lenders and servicers to adopt systematic, proactive, and streamlined mortgage loan modification protocols and to review troubled loans using these protocols. Lenders and servicers should first determine whether a loan modification would enhance the net present value of the loan before proceeding to foreclosure, and they should ensure that loans currently in foreclosure have been subject to such analysis. Such practices are not only consistent with sound risk management but are also in the long-term interests of lenders and servicers, as well as borrowers.

Systematic efforts to address delinquent mortgages should seek to achieve modifications that result in mortgages that borrowers will be able to sustain over the remaining maturity of their loan. Supervisors will fully support banking organizations as they work to implement effective and sound loan modification programs. Banking organizations that experience challenges in implementing loss mitigation efforts on their mortgage portfolios or in making new loans to borrowers should work with their primary supervisors to address specific situations.

Structuring compensation

Poorly-designed management compensation policies can create perverse incentives that can ultimately jeopardize the health of the banking organization. Management compensation policies should be aligned with the long-term prudential interests of the institution, should provide appropriate incentives for safe and sound behavior, and should structure compensation to prevent short-term payments for transactions with long-term horizons. Management compensation practices should balance the ongoing earnings capacity and financial resources of the banking organization, such as capital levels and reserves, with the need to retain and provide proper incentives for strong management. Further, it is important for banking organizations to have independent risk management and control functions.

The agencies expect banking organizations to regularly review their management compensation policies to ensure they are consistent with the longer-run objectives of the organization and sound lending and risk management practices.

The agencies will continue to take steps to promote programs that foster financial stability and mitigate procyclical effects of the current market conditions. However, regardless of their participation in particular programs, all banking organizations are expected to adhere to the principles in this statement. We will work with banking organizations to facilitate their active participation in those programs, consistent with safe and sound banking practices, and thus to support their central role in providing credit to support the health of the U.S. economy.

###

Watch the Financial’s (XLF)

Keep an eye on the price level of the financial ETF (XLF). The $12.70 price level is very critical support. A failure of that level would likely bring a very large selling wave.

Pre Market - Futures Gone Wild

The title of this mornings pre market update sums it up. During the overnight hours we went up… and then massively lower since 7am.

The following charts show the S&P 500 E-mini futures in a 5 minute view and 60 minute view.

Market Summary - Knock Knock.. Who’s There? American Express

Yes.. American Express (AXP) is now knocking on Hank Paulson’s door wanting some of that tax payer money. Tonight the Wall Street Journal reports that American Express has sought $3.5 Billion dollars to help the company from rising defaults.

Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal:

AmEx Said to Request $3.5 Billion in U.S. Aid

American Express Co. which is being hit by slowing consumer spending and rising defaults, is seeking roughly $3.5 billion in taxpayer-funded capital from the federal government, according to people familiar with the situation.[...]

The Government better install one of those ‘take a number’ machines because the number of companies getting in line for bail out money is going to keep getting longer. The $700 Billion TARP bail out program will likely go down as one of the largest blunders in American financial history.

There is a lot of chatter in the financial media regarding how LIBOR rates and other ‘credit stress’ indicators have been falling. But the market is looking way past those indicators now. This is a market that is everyday realizing that the long term growth potential is eroding. Larry Kudlow of CNBC keeps saying that the market is planting “mustard seeds“. Mustard seeds? Throughout the summer he said that ‘goldilocks’ was alive and well. Well Larry has finally stopped talking about his fantasy girl and now talks of planting seeds. Larry… I have news for you… The only things being planted in the ground are companies and individuals that are going bankrupt.

One indicator that Larry never talks about is the still deteriorating mortgage backed securities market. The following graphs illustrate the declining value of these securities.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each graph is for a different rating. AAA, AA, etc. I don’t see much improvement there. Do you Larry?

From a technical perspective it appears that the market is heading into an increasing narrow trading range. 

 

 

 

Even though the market appears to be heading into a narrowing range, the intra-day swings continue to be wild and swift. Indecision, fear, and greed are all fighting an epic battle. My long term projections for the market remains unchanged… bearish.

I still believe that the lows of October will be tested once again. The question is will they hold. Even if they hold ‘for now’ it does not change my view that they will eventually fail and the market will experience new lows. 

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