Economic Events for 9/11 & 9/12

Normally I would have posted the full economic calendar for the week, but last weekend was busy here in Rebel land with Tropical Storm Hanna coming up the east coast.

The following are the economic events for the rest of this week.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

8:30am: August Import Price Index (last m/m 1.7%, y/y 21.6%),

July Trade Balance (last -$56.8B),

Initial Jobless Claims (last 444K)

Continuing Claims (last 3.435M)

10:35am: Natural Gas Inventories

2:00pm: August Monthly Budget Statement (last -$117.0B)

2:45pm: Fed’s Kohn speaks on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution.

Earnings

Before the Open: CPB, CRAI, LULU, MEI, OHB, SIFY. After the Close: ARTC, ASHW, RVI, GROW.

Friday, September 12, 2008

8:30am: PPI (last m/m 1.2%, y/y 9.8%, ex food & energy last m/m 0.7%, y/y 3.5%),

August Advanced Retail Sales (last -0.1%, ex auto 0.4%)

10:00am: Preliminary U. of Michigan Confidence (last 63.0),

July Business Inventories (last 0.7%)

Earnings

None seen

Economic Calendar for 9/1/2008 to 9/5/2008

Monday, September 01, 2008

US MARKETS CLOSED

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

10:00am:  August ISM Manufacturing (last 50), August ISM Prices Paid (last 88.5), July Construction Spending m/m (last –0.4%)

Earnings

Before the Open: None seen.

After the Close: DCI, NCS, SNDA

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

7:30am: August Challenger Job Cuts y/y (last 140.8%)

9:00am: BoC Rate Decision

10:00am: July Factory Orders (last 1.7%)

10:35am: Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

2:00pm: Fed Beige Book

August Domestic and Total vehicle sales. Same-store sales after the close

Earnings

Before the Open: ISLE, JOYG, KFY, SPLS, UNFI.

After the Close: CWST, CASY, PSS, GES, HRB, HOV, MR, SAI.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

7:00am: BoE Rate Decision

7:45am: ECB Rate Decision

8:15am: Aug ADP Employment Change (last 9K)

8:30am: Q2 Final Non-Farm Productivity (last 2.2%), Q2 Final Unit Labor Costs (last 1.3%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 425K), Continuing Claims (last 3.423M)

10:00am: Aug ISM Non-Manufacturing (last 49.5)

10:35am: Natural Gas Inventories

Same-store sales before the open.

Earnings

Before the Open: CRMT, BRLI, BTH, CIEN, CRAI, DHT, JTX, MDZ, MEI, MOV, SIFY, TOL, UTIW, VOL.

After the Close: ABM, ADCT, AVAV, ARTC, CAE, COO, IIG, MATK, PEC, TUTR, ZQK, SEAC, SWHC, TTWO, ULTA

Friday, September 05, 2008

8:30am: Aug Nonfarm Payrolls (last -51K), Aug Unemployment (last 5.7%), Aug Manufacturing Payrolls (last -35K), Aug Average Hourly Earnings (last m/m 0.3%, y/y 3.4%), Aug Average Weekly Hours (last 33.6)

Second Quarter Mortgage Delinquencies (last 6.35%)

Earnings

Before the Open: NSM, SCMR. A

After the Close: None

July Durable Goods Table

The headline durable goods figures came in at 1.3% vs. 0.0 expected.

Prior durable goods revised from 0.8% to 1.3%

Table for July:

JULY DURABLE GOODS TABLE
                                                       JULY    JUNE    MAY
(Dollar Amounts In Billions)

- New Orders for Durables     219.26  216.36  213.67
- Percent Change                    1.3     1.3     0.1
- New Orders, Ex-Defense      207.89  202.20  200.96
- Percent Change                     2.8     0.6    -0.7
- New Orders, Ex-Trans.        161.77  160.60  156.82
- Percent Change                     0.7     2.4    -0.5
- Primary Metals                       24.23   23.72   22.01
- Percent Change                    2.2     7.8    -1.8
- Fabricated Metals                  28.18   28.08   27.77
- Percent Change                    0.4     1.1     0.3
- Machinery                                33.07   31.62   30.75
- Percent Change                     4.6     2.8    -3.9
- Computers/Electronics        27.70   28.05   28.09
- Percent Change                     -1.3    -0.1     2.8
- Electrical/Appliances            10.93   11.64   11.08
- Percent Change                    -6.0     5.0     1.1
- Transportation Equipment   57.49   55.76   56.85
- Percent Change                    3.1    -1.9     1.8
- Nondefense Cap. Goods    76.29   71.74   73.64
- Percent Change                     6.3    -2.6     0.0
- Defense Capital Goods       8.36   11.25    9.79
- Percent Change                    -25.7    15.0    14.1
- Durable Goods Shipped      218.29  213.02  211.05
- Percent Change                    2.5     0.9    -1.2
- Unfilled Orders                      824.36  817.80  810.29
- Percent Change                   0.8     0.9     0.9

Economic Calendar for August 25 - 29, 2008

On tap for this coming week:

Monday, August 25, 2008

10:00am: July Existing Home Sales (last 4.86M, m/m -2.6%)

Earnings

Before the Open: APWR, IONA

After the Close: WINN, CPY

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

9:00am: June S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 168.5), June S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y (last –15.8%), Q2 S&P/CS Housing Price Index (last 159.2, y/y –14.1%)

10:00am: Aug Consumer Confidence (last 51.9), July New Home Sales (last 530K, m/m –0.6%), June Housing Price Index m/m (last –0.3%), Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (last -16)

2:00pm: FOMC minutes

Earnings

Before the Open: BIG, CHS, COCO, DAKT, LTXX, SAFM, SFD, TUES.

After the Close: APSG, BGP, DY, HAIN, JCG, PEC.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

8:30am: July Durable Goods Orders (last –0.8%, ex-transport 2.0%)

8:35am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on inflation at Georgia State

10:35am: Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Earnings

Before the Open: AEO, BWS, CHRS, DLTR, FTD, GTOP, OSIS, SOLF, TLBR.

After the Close: CWTR, FCEL, GA, GEF, HEI, JAS, MW, SNDA, SIGM, TIVO.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

8:30am: Preliminary Q2 Annualized GDP q/q (last 1.9%), Q2 GDP Price Index (last 1.1%), Q2 Personal Consumption (last 1.5%), Q2 Core PCE q/q (last 2.1%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 432K), Continuing Jobless Claims (last 3.362M)

10:35am: Natural Gas Inventories

Earnings

Before the Open: BF.B, CONN, DLM, DHT, ENER, FLE, FRED, GCO, KIRK, LB, LAYN, NZ, SHLD, SIFY, TIF, TWB, VIP, WSM, ZLC.

During Trading Hours: NX.

After the Close: ARUN, BNHN, JRJC, CMOS, DLIA, DELL, DDS, DLLR, ESL, JMBA, LTON, LAVA, MRVL, MCRS, NOVL, OVTI, PETM, RAE, LNUX, TMA, CHIP, WIND.

Friday, August 29, 2008

8:30am: July Personal Income (last 0.1%), July Personal Spending (last 0.6%), July PCE Deflator y/y (last 4.1%), July PCE Core (last m/m 0.3%, y/y 2.3%)

9:45am: Aug Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (last 50.8)

9:55am: Aug Final U. of Michigan Confidence (last 61.7)

10:00am: Aug NAPM-Milwaukee (last 44)

Earnings

During Trading Hours: VLCCF.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Weekly jobless claims data:

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 432K V 440KE;

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.36M V 3.405ME

- Initial Jobless Claims revised from 450K to 445K
-  Continuing Claims revised from 3.417M to 3.38M

Economic Calendar for August 18 to 22, 2008

Market events for the week…

Monday, August 18, 2008

1:00pm August NAHB Housing Market Index (last 16)

Earnings

Before the Open: LOW, PWRD, PRGO, TSL, YTEC

 After the Close: CNTF, SGK, XFML, BHP

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

8:30am July PPI (last m/m 1.8%, y/y 9.2%, ex food & energy last m/m 0.2%, y/y 3.0%)

July Housing Starts (last 1.066M), July Building Permits (last 1.091M)

10:00am Fed’s Fisher speaks in Aspen on the US economy.

Earnings

Before the Open: CCUR, HD, MDT, MGPI, MYGN, SOL, SKS, GASS, TGT.

After the Close: ARAY, ADI, DRYS, HPQ, JKHY, LZB, NVTL, OTEX, CHIP.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

4:30am BoE Minutes

10:35am Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Earnings

Before the Open: AMWD, BJ, EV, EJ, FTD, MENT, RGS, RTLX, ROST, STP.

After the Close: AFCE, BYI, CLZR, IMOS, CTRN, GYMB, HOTT, JDSU, LTD, LTON, LDG, PVH, CRM, SMTC, SYMM, SNPS.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

8:30am Initial Jobless Claims (last 450K), Continuing Claims (last 3.417M)

10:00am August Philadelphia Fed (last –16.3), July Leading Indicators (last -0.1%)

10:35am Natural Gas Inventories

Earnings

Before the Open: BKS, BONT, BKC, CMRG, CTR, PLCE, CYBX, DKS, DMRC, FRO, GME, GMTN, HNZ, HRL, KNSY, LB, LANC, LYTS, MPR, PDCO, SCHS, SHMR, SFL, SCVL, SIFY, SSI, SMRT, TECD, BKE, TTC, TWB.

After the Close: ARO, AVNX, BEBE, BCSI, CALL, CPWM, DITC, FMD, FL, GPS, HIBB, HRAY, INTU, JMBA, LRN, NDSN, PSUN, RAE, SCSC, SHOR, TMA, VRGY, WTSLA, ZUMZ.

Friday, August 22, 2008

7:50pm BoJ Minutes

10:00am Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on financial stability in Jackson Hole.

Earnings

Before the Open: ANN, CSUN, HPOL, SKIL.

After the Close: PERY.

Mortgage Rates Continue to Climb

As you are aware from our writings the stresses in the credit markets continue to build in spite of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to loosen up the flow of funds.

The chart below (courtesy of Bank Rate) shows that standard 30 year fixed mortgage vs. the Federal Reserve discount rate. Even in the midst of the massive cuts by the FOMC mortgage rates have continued to climb. The increasing mortgage rates are adding additional problems to the already severely damaged housing market. In the face of rising default rates and rising risk the rates have continued to rise.

Anyone who has been hoping for the Federal Reserve to begin raising the discount rate in order to battle inflationary forces may be very disappointed. If the housing market is this bad now, raising the rates will only make the situation worse. And recent US dollar movements have been somewhat influenced by the notion that the Federal Reserve is done cutting the discount rate. It should not be long before the enthusiasm of the US dollar gains wears thin and we begin to see a return to a down trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence - Prelim August

AUG PRELIM UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 61.7 V 62.0 Expected

1 yr median inflation expectations  at  4.8% v 5.1% in July 
5 yr median inflation expectations at  3.2% v 3.2% in July

 

Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index

Consumer price index remains elevated, and so do jobless claims/continuing claims.  Futures turned down on the news.  Oil is currently around $116.30. 

JUL CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.8% V 0.4%E; CPI EX FOOD_ENERGY M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 219.96 V 219.075
- CPI y/y: 5.6% v 5.1%e
- Core CPI Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 450K V 435KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.417M V 3.310ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised from 455K to 460K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised from 3.311M to 3.303M

July Foreclosure Data

US JULY FORECLOSURE M/M: +8%; Y/Y: + 55%; BANK REPOSSESSIONS Y/Y: +184%  - REALTYTRAC

- The report also shows one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during July

- Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate in July, with one in every 106 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the month. Foreclosure activity in Nevada was up 15%from the previous month and 97% from July 2007, pushing the total number of properties with foreclosure filings to over 10,000. Bank repossessions in Nevada were up 384% on a year-over-year basis, while default notices were up 59% and auction notices were up 31%. 
- One in every 182 California properties received a foreclosure filing in July, the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate, while one in every 186 Florida properties received a foreclosure filing, the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate.    

 

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