Stop is $21.04

I am playing a trade based on the current chart pattern on the Russell 2000 at this moment.

Going over data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics I was able to create a graph that depicts the government employee staffing levels during the current 2010 census against the employment levels from the 2000 census.

The census, which takes place every decade, begins with a small amount of hiring by the government to prepare for the big day when the actual mailings go out to every home in the country. This preparation includes such tasks as taking the previous census data and updating it to current electronic database standards (so as comparisons can be made once the current census data is entered), a committee to work on what questions will be included in the mailing, legal advisors, and other office staff to support the project.

The largest jump in employees working for the census project occurs between 3 and 5 months after the mailings go out to the public. This is when the government hires the most temporary workers to be key punch operators (data entry specialists in today’s lingo). These are the people who will either scan and verify every document returned by the residents of the country, or will enter the entire data manually. More than likely it will be a cross between the two methods as no matter how easy you make a form someone will fill it out incorrectly and it will have to be entered manually.

We have been hearing for many months that the 2010 census will be adding jobs and will improve the employment situation for the country. On paper it will look good, for a while anyway. A great majority of people who are hired to work on the 2010 census will be gone once it is all wrapped up. Many before it is even completed.

The only employees left will be a handful of number crunchers who will spend months extracting every nuance of information from the massive computer database of information.

This month (March) the 2010 census questionnaires will be in the mail. If this census follows the time line as the census of 2000, then we can expect to see the largest hiring to take place around late June to late August of this year. On the graph you can see that hiring spike during the 2000 census (blue line) which was approximately 4 months after the questionnaires were mailed. That employment spike was a significant number of data entry specialists. And once the data is entered from all of the forms, those workers were let go soon after as evidenced on the graph by the large drop that followed.

It is with no doubt that the main stream media will be reporting the ‘total’ employment situation as greatly improving come late Spring and early Summer this year. But, once again, one only has to look underneath the veil to see where the numbers come from. In this situation it would appear that aside from any organic growth, if any, in the real economy that most of the employment gains in the months ahead will be temporary government workers.

I will update this graph when new data is issued each month.

The tally for 2009 is in and it is historic. State tax revenues declines by $87 Billion, the steepest decline on record. This decline is attributed to lost jobs, reduced wages, and lower economic activity.

As tax revenues decline some states have responded by eliminating tax exemptions, increasing fees, and broadening tax bases.

Who said that the middle class would not see their taxes increase before the election?

The full report from the Center on Budget and Policy can be read below.

State Tax Changes

(all times are US ET, schedules are subject to change)

MONDAY

17:00 Fed’s Sack speaks to economists in Arlington

Earnings

Before the Open: COMV, DGW, FREE, PARD, YGE

After the Close: CAP, CPE, CASY, FRPT, HRB, MAKO, NCMI, RSCR, SNHY, TIVO, VVUS

TUESDAY

09:30 Fed’s Evans speaks to economists in Arlington

10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (last 46.8)

13:00 Treasury’s $40B 3-yr note auction

16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence (last –49)

Earnings

Before the Open: BRNC, CALP, CRIC, CODI, DKS, EJ, EXEL, GPOR, KR, LMIA, NXG, SSI, SWSI, TSTY

After the Close: AONE, AVAV, ALOG, BIDZ, SAM, PSS, DXCM, EXLS, FLOW, ICFI, JCG, SLXP, VRSK, ZIPR

WEDNESDAY

10:00 January Wholesale Inventories (last -0.8%)

10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $21B 10-yr note auction

14:00 February Monthly Budget Statement (last -$42.6B)

Earnings

Before the Open: CAS, AEO, BONT, BF.B, CRZO, PLCE, CWEI, CPIX, ESLT, ELMG, FSIN, HRBN, HWK, QLTI, SOL, TRK, RMIX, MTN

After the Close: AACC, BLDP, CLNE, FCEL, GYMB, HIL, HOTT, IDSY, IPAR, JAS, MW, MBLX, VITA, PRSC, SMTC, STAN, TTGT, WES

THURSDAY

08:30 January Trade Balance (last -$40.2B), Initial Jobless Claims (last 469K), Continuing Claims (last 4.50M)

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $13B 30-yr note auction

14:00 Fed’s Dudley speaks to London economists

Earnings

Before the Open: CSUN, DK, IMAX, JTX, MEA, PNY, SFD, STEI, SUI, BKE

After the Close: ARO, AIRM, CCO, GG, KOG, NSM, OMPI, OPTR, PSUN, PLL, POWR, ZQK, SEAC, SHFL, SWHC, ZUMZ

FRIDAY

08:30 February Advance Retail Sales (last 0.5%, ex auto 0.6%),

09:55 March preliminary University of Michigan confidence index (last 73.6)

10:00 December Business Inventories (last -0.2%)

– OKE to be added to S&P500, GHL to be added to S&P400, POWL to be added to S&P600 after the close

Earnings:

Before the Open: ANN, CTRN, HIBB, KIRK, PEI

The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) is a gauge of several hundred investment advisors that are tracked on a routine basis.

Based on the several hundred investment advisers I track, I’d have to say that bullish sentiment is approaching dangerously high levels. Consider the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which represents the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short term stock market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

It currently stands at 62.8%, up from 13.8% just one month ago. That’s an awfully big jump for so short a period of time, especially considering that the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a modest 4.4% over this period.

Also worrying is that, with but one exception, the HSNSI is now at its highest level since early 2007, more than three years ago.

That one exception, when the HSNSI was higher than it is now, came in early January, two months ago. Soon thereafter, of course, the market entered into its January-February correction, during which the Dow declined by nearly 8%.

Does the stock market face an equally large decline this time around? The answer, from a contrarian perspective: It depends on how advisers react to whatever weakness materializes. […]

We’ll know soon enough how the sentiment picture unfolds, of course.

But, as of now, because advisers have been so quick to jump back on the bullish bandwagon, downside risk appears to be elevated.[…] (MarketWatch)

Human psychology is one of the most intriguing aspects of market research. No matter how educated a professional investment advisor may be, he or she is still human, and that human psychology is still a factor in decision making. Separating the exuberance of price advances from reality is, and always has been, the most dangerous single factor in making bad trading decisions.

I have read a number of books concerning the psychology of trading. One of my favorites is still the book “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas. Well worth the read in my honest opinion.

S&P 100 (OEX)

Daily:

Hourly:

S&P 400 Mid Cap

Wilshire 5000

Dow Transportation Index

Volatility Index (VIX)

All the rest of the charts, and more in the weekend video.

Looking at the broader index of those who are unemployed and/or marginally attached workers the unemployment rate is 17.9%.

Highlights of the report:

* In February, the number of unemployed persons, at 14.9 million

*  The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was

*  6.1 million in February and has been about that level since December.

*  About 4 in 10 unemployed persons have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

*  The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased from 8.3 to 8.8 million in February, partially offsetting a large decrease in the prior month. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

*  About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in

*  February, an increase of 476,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

*  Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in February, up by 473,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

* The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours in February. The manufacturing workweek for all employees dropped by 0.4 hour to 39.5 hours, and factory overtime decreased by 0.2 hour over the month. In February, the average workweek for production or nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.1 hours; the workweek fell by 1.0 hour in construction, likely reflecting the unusually severe winter storms.

And what about all that bad weather?

*  Effect of Severe Winter Storms on Employment Estimates

Major winter storms affected parts of the country during the February reference periods for the establishment and household surveys.

In the establishment survey, the reference period was the pay period including February 12th. In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work for an entire pay period and not be paid for the time missed. About half of all workers in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Workers who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, even one hour, are counted in the February payroll employment figures. While some persons may have been off payrolls during the survey reference period, some industries, such as those dealing with cleanup and repair activities, may have added workers.

In the household survey, the reference period was the calendar week of February 7-13. People who miss work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off.

Snow had no impact on the overall employment situation. But President Obama later today said the snow impacted the labor market. Is this a ‘snow job’ from the President?

[…] The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicts that Obama’s budget plans would generate deficits over the upcoming decade that would total $9.8 trillion. That’s $1.2 trillion more than predicted by the administration.

The agency says its future-year predictions of tax revenues are more pessimistic than the administration’s. That’s because CBO projects slightly slower economic growth than the White House.

The deficit picture has turned alarmingly worse since the recession that started at the end of 2007, never dipping below 4 percent of the size of the economy over the next decade. Economists say that deficits of that size are unsustainable and could put upward pressure on interest rates, crowd out private investment in the economy and ultimately erode the nation’s standard of living. […]

[…] The report says that extending tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 under GOP President George W. Bush and continuing to update the alternative minimum tax so that it won’t hit millions of middle-class taxpayers would cost $3 trillion over 2011-2020. The tax cuts expire at the end of this year and Obama wants to extend them — except for individuals making more than $200,000 a year and couples making $250,000.

For the ongoing budget year, CBO predicts a record $1.5 trillion deficit. That’s actually a little better than predicted by the White House, but at 10 percent of gross domestic product, it’s bigger than any deficit in history other than those experienced during World War II. […]

I am old enough to remember when a Trillion dollars was a big deal.

Enjoy…

Iraqi Elections Likely To Fuel Ethnic Tensions, Further Delay Access To Kirkuk’s Reserves

Iraqi Elections Likely To Fuel Ethnic Tensions, Further Delay Access To Kirkuk’s Reserves

The elections in Iraq on March 7, 2010, are likely to serve as an important indicator of the prospects for a resolution of the long-running dispute over the administration of the ethnically mixed and resource-rich province of Kirkuk in the north of the country.

The Iraqi Kurds have repeatedly called for Kirkuk to be transferred to the control of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which already administers three provinces in the predominantly Kurdish north of Iraq. The other ethnic groups in Iraq – including the Arab-dominated government in Baghdad – are equally insistent that Kirkuk should remain under central control and that any oil or gas revenues should be divided between the entire population of the country rather than all going to the KRG.

The failure to resolve the issue of the eventual status of Kirkuk threatens not only prospects for permanent political stability in Iraq but also hopes of extracting the province’s huge reserves and building new oil and gas pipelines from Kirkuk to Turkey, and from there to energy-hungry Western markets.

“We are very interested in the oil and gas reserves in Kirkuk. Who wouldn’t be?” said one executive from a leading European energy company. “We would like to invest in the region, perhaps even become involved in building one of the pipelines. But we can’t do anything unless this issue is resolved. At the moment, the risk of political instability is just too great.”

The Iraqi Kurds have long maintained that, historically, Kirkuk is a Kurdish province but that it was subjected to a process of Arabization under former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who deported a significant proportion of its indigenous Kurds and replaced them with ethnic Arabs. No one doubts that such a campaign was launched, although the scale of the deportations is hotly disputed.

Since the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, the KRG has assumed de facto control of education and security in Kirkuk. Other ethnic groups have accused the KRG of resettling hundreds of thousands of ethnic Kurds in the province, including not only those who were originally from Kirkuk but also a large number of Kurds from other areas. They claim that the KRG’s ultimate aim is to change the demographic balance in the province in the run-up to a constitutionally required – but long overdue – referendum on the status of Kirkuk. They fear that, if a referendum results in a vote for union with the KRG, the Iraqi Kurds will attempt to use the revenue from the province’s oil and gas reserves as the economic foundations for their long-held dream of an independent Kurdish state. It is a prospect which alarms not only the Iraqi government in Baghdad but also several of the country’s neighbors. Syria, Iran and – particularly – Turkey all worry that the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq will further fuel secessionist tendencies amongst their own already restive Kurdish minorities.

The evidence on the ground in Kirkuk suggests that there is some truth to the allegations of demographic manipulation. In September 2009, local officials in Kirkuk estimated that the population of the province stood at 1.4 million, up from 850,000 at the time of the US invasion in March 2003. More significantly, the voter registry in Kirkuk has increased from 400,000 in 2004 to 900,000 for the March 7 elections. A dispute between Kurds and other ethnic groups over how many seats to allocate to Kirkuk to accommodate this huge increase in voters resulted in the entire election being put back two months after originally being scheduled for January 2010.

Although a compromise was eventually agreed, the real test is likely to come after the election itself. As happened at the last Iraqi general election, the two main Kurdish parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – are running on a joint ticket, the so-called Kurdistani Alliance, together with five minor parties. However, this time they will face a challenge from a new party called “Goran” (meaning “Change”), which is dominated by former members of the PUK who had become exasperated by the widespread corruption and misuse of resources in the three provinces under the KRG’s control.

In the July 2009 elections for the KRG, Goran picked up 23.5 percent of the vote. It is also expected to perform well in Kirkuk on March 7, 2010. But Goran has already declared that, however much it may be opposed to the KDP/PUK in other areas, it is in complete agreement with them on iconic issues such as the transfer or Kirkuk to KRG control. As a result, the predominance of ethnic Kurds in Kirkuk means that the main hope for those opposed to the transfer of Kirkuk to the KRG is that voters break with the pattern of previous elections in Iraq and vote across ethnic lines. If the Kurdish parties fail to win an overwhelming majority in the province, then it will be much more difficult for them to push for the inclusion of Kirkuk in the territory administered by the KRG and they may be more prepared to reach a compromise with other ethnic groups on the division of revenue from Kirkuk’s oil and gas. But, for the moment at least, the signs are that the Kurds of Kirkuk will again vote along ethnic lines – which is likely to encourage the Iraq Kurds to renew their calls for a referendum and the eventual transfer of both the province and its oil and gas to the KRG.

Even if the Kurdish parties sweep Kirkuk, there is still no indication that any of the other ethnic groups in Iraq or the central government in Baghdad is prepared to allow the KRG to take over Kirkuk. Consequently, the most likely outcome of the March 7 general election in Kirkuk appears to be an increase in political tensions; and, as long as the standoff remains unresolved, energy companies are likely to continue to be reluctant to make substantial investments in extracting the province’s hydrocarbons and transferring them to Western markets.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-iraqi-elections-likely-to-fuel-ethnic-tensions-further-delay-access-to-kirkuks-reserves.html

This article written by Gareth Jenkins for OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com