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The Day that Was – July 23rd 2007

July 23, 2007 By Chuck

The financial sector finally had some upward moves. That in addition to some good earnings pre market helped the market move into the green zone today. The DOW maintained the gain for most of the day however the S&P and the Nasdaq gave up some the of gains from the peak of the day around mid day. But at least it was an up day on all three of the major indices.

Also in the pre market was the news of the merger of Transocean (RIG) and Global SantaFe (GSF). A deal worth $53 Billion.

Today was just a taste of what is yet to come this week with many companies releasing their earnings. It will indeed be a busy week with companies reporting.

RebelTrader swing trades:

FEEC closed at $1.65, which is a gain of 5.7% from the entry price just this past Friday. When FEEC moves over $1.65 I will enter the second 1/2 of my swing trade.

WWAT continues to be a good mover. Closed today at $2.45 which is 33% up from my original entry point.

WDC closed up today at $22.89 and this swing trade stands at 12.3% gain from the original entry price.

NHWK closed up today at $21.36 and this swing trade is currently a 10.1% gain from the entry price.

I closed the AKS swing trade today because earnings are due tomorrow but the main reason is that there has been some recent earnings from other companies in this sector that had bearish outlook on the metals sector. I did not want to risk holding AKS through the earnings and possibly being exposed to bearish outlook from the company. AKS was closed at a break even (less than 1.0% gain).

The Rebeltrader portfolio continues to rack up good gains. Tomorrow I will continue to work on the new watch list items and more trade ideas.

“May the Bulls be with you” (yes, I’m a Star Wars fan!)

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*** AKS – UPDATE

July 23, 2007 By Chuck

I’m closing the swing trade on AKS here now. Closing trade at $38.69. There is some bearish sentiment in the metals industry of late and AKS will provide their earnings release tomorrow. I don’t want to risk a possible negative surprise from AKS should they have any bad news on the sector as a whole. They could release good earnings numbers but any comment on the sector being weak will send AKS down as well as other steel/metal sector stocks.

Closing AKS here is the smart thing to do. It would have been nice if it was able to have a good run up to this point but I’ll take the small gain anytime as opposed to risking it to a loss should their earnings have anything negative in it.

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Update

July 23, 2007 By Chuck

RebelTrader plays WWAT,WDC,BIG,NHWK, AKS all trading up. I expect to see GRP trading up soon.

WWAT already working on new highs again. NHWK running up quickly again this morning. Some good gains for the RebelTrader portfolio again.

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Mid day update

July 12, 2007 By Chuck

The big winner so far today in the rebeltrader portfolio is ONT. It is up over 10% today so far. A good bounce play this has become. That was why I changed the setup conditions for ONT from the original game plan. When I identified the pullback to a key level the play changed to a buy on signs of a bounce (remember, we don’t buy on the way down, we buy after it hit then catch it as it comes back up).

The metals sector is good today and AKS is slowly making upward movement. Oil Services GRP also doing nicely again today, BIG is another big winner today as the retail sector is hot today.

The only bad play in the book right now is JSDA. Has not been able to keep itself above water as the word of the CEO’s conversation on CNBC has made the rounds and has let the shorts take over control for now. Too bad, without the CEO this could have been a good trend reversal play. It still might but I won’t leave my money in there and risk it. Took my 1/2 position off the table when it hit the stop at $16.90.

The sectors that are doing bad today are biotech & restaurants.

Now, the biggest news of all is that the DJIA has broken out of the trading range (see the DJIA chart on my public chart list: Public charts.) Right now at this time we are above the top of the trading range. If we close above that trading range then we are one step away from returning to a bull mode.

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The Day that Was – July 11th 2007

July 11, 2007 By Chuck
Today the market was able to recover some of its big drop from yesterday. Yesterday the big driving force that made the already nervous market take a dive was that ugly word popped up again. That word is “sub prime”. Any time the market hears that word there is a fear that runs all the way down the spine of the markets. Personally I feel the sub prime issue is still looming over the economy and it will manifest itself into other areas over time. We are not done hearing about sub prime woes.

Today the market was helped by the M/A news of Chaparral Steel being purchased by Gerdau Ameristeel Corp. That boosted the metals sector today. And the rebeltrader portfolio holding A K Steel Holding Corp (AKS) got a boost from that today as well closing up 1.78%.

Portfolio holding Grant Prideco Inc. (GRP), an oil services sector play remains in play. I am still bullish on GRP. Yesterday Motley Fool mentioned that GRP is still on their 10 highest rated stocks list per their investors subscriber base of recommendations.

Yesterday I took a position in JSDA as it was advancing throughout the day after it had closed above a key support level ($17.00). The entry price was $17.85. Today JSDA sold down to $17.07 on a CEO interview that made it through the markets as being “not so hot”. I watched the interview and while the CEO was not well spoken he did not say anything in my view that warranted a sell off. But one always has to remember the market does not care about the old saying “what have you done for me lately”, but instead wants to hear more of what are you going to do for me tomorrow. The CEO addressed that by the end of the year they would be introducing some sort of new product. For me it does not matter what the CEO says or not. I’m playing the chart. And for now $17.00 is still a support line that if there is going to be a leg up it has to start from somewhere. And $17.00 is that starting point. Every swing trade has to have a plan. You can not just buy something you hear about or see flash by on a ticker window showing a big gain. You have think like a tiger, stalking your prey. A tiger waits for the right moment to attack. JSDA was a stock that ran from $14 to as high as $19 in the span of 3 days. It was a moving target in the middle of a freeway at rush hour. Trying to rush into traffic to catch it could either get you run over or when you caught it the stock could change direction and head for the off-ramp. Smart traders will wait for a setup. The setup was the formation of a base above $17.00. That we got, we made the kill on the move up out of the base (albeit a short time frame base) and we will play it by the book. If it fails the base then this stock is not ready for prime time yet.

Discipline is always the key. Never buy any stock that is being talked about in the news blindly without looking at it carefully, plan your attack, and wait for the conditions to establish and then you have your trade. Have a plan and trade the plan.

Today I entered ALGN on a very healthy advance. The volume was good and it closed up 5.23%. Today it set a new 52wk high. I did not enter the second 1/2 of my swing trade funds to this trade yet. Although it did clear the second buy point it did it at the end of the day and by only a couple cents so I will wait until tomorrow. If you had a pre programmed trade setup to grab it at the second buy point then that is fine, you may end up with a better entry than I will when I enter my second buy.

We are still in a place I don”t like being. We are still in this sideways trading range on the major indices and it’s makes swing trading difficult. But perseverance I have and I will keep looking for good trading ideas. For those of you that email me asking me what are some good trades I can only tell you that I have a list of stocks in my office up on the wall that I like, but I am stalking them and looking for the setups to establish themselves. Over the weekend I will post a picture of the RebelTrader ‘research department’ and you will see my wall of stock plays.. LOL

I hope all my fellow Rebels had a great day and to all I wish a wonderful good night.

p.s. – Today I was contacted by Lindsay, a wonderful lady at http://www.ino.com/ asking if I would be interested in providing some guest commentaries for their site. So from time to time I will provide her with some articles that I write and she will share with me some of their content in return. Thank you Lindsay for considering my market views as worthy for your site.

Updated ONT and ALGN charts:

ONT+7 11 07 The Day that Was July 11th 2007 ALGN+7 11 07 The Day that Was July 11th 2007

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Rebel Trader portfolio status

July 11, 2007 By Chuck

Today AKS is up nicely on the strong metals sector, NTGR is up on a breakout into new highs, ONT is accumulating here and is ticking up ever so slowly but looking good so far, BIG is still above the original buy point and is still collecting large buys going through the tape, GRP is also trading up and I am still bullish on the oil services sector, WDC is also holding on even after the big fall yesterday. The tech sector is doing fairly well considering the overall bearish worries of the markets right now.

Only holding not doing well this morning is JSDA. Down 3.7% on what I can assume is a lack of confidence in the company from comments the CEO made on CNBC last night. I was prepared to sell early and not wait for the stop loss point if I saw any panic selling on JSDA. It is down but I don’t see any panic, and it is holding above the stop loss point through the morning. So I am giving it a chance.

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Pre Market July 9th 2007

July 9, 2007 By Chuck

Asian stocks pick up steam, the Nikkei 255 rallies to a 7 year high. European markets up.

Analyst ‘ThinkEquity’ raises their price target for Google (GOOG) to $700.00.

I’m watching JSDA. After pulling back most of its gains on Friday on a steady drop all day Friday it is trading up again in pre market. $17.00 is a key pivot point for JSDA. A close above that point will add confidence that JSDA is reversing the trend. I may take a 1/3 position in JSDA today, but I will watch the trading pattern before I decide. JSDA so far has not shown a commitment to continue the rally. The trading on Friday was a huge signal of a possible failed rally. But today it looks as if it will make another try.

I’m seeing some potential for strength in the metals sector today. May have a boost for our open position AKS. Also seeing strength this morning in solar stocks. The solar plays have been volatile, fast runs then hard stops and some wild pullbacks.

The week ahead:

  • Monday: 10 year TIPS data (description of TIPS)
  • Tuesday: Redbook, Consumer credit
  • Wednesday: Wholesale inventories, Crude inventories
  • Thursday: Initial claims, Trade balance, Monthly budget statement
  • Friday: Export/Import price data, Retail sales, business inventories

On Tuesday Fed Chairman will be speaking about inflation in Massachusetts, on Wednesday Fed reserve governor Kevin Walsh will testify before the House financial Services Committee on hedge funds and systematic risk.

Futures are essentially flat, oil has dropped some but is still above $72. Note: If oil moves to $75 then we will start seeing more pullbacks in many sectors.

“May the bulls be with you”

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A wrap of the day – July 6th, 2007

July 6, 2007 By Chuck

The day started out with futures basically flat. Then the unemployment data was released and there were no surprises. It came in as expected. At first the market reacted a bit negative to the numbers. I believe for the most part the data was priced in the markets already.

Then by about 10am the mood turned positive and we had a smooth, somewhat uneventful day of lower than normal volume buying. Best sectors today were Gold,Coal,Housing (hard to believe!), Retail,Silver,Energy,Computer hardware,Internet,Semis,Steel, and Brokers

The ones that did poorly: Paper, Telecom, Biotech,Utilities,computer software

Rebeltrader plays did well today, all posting a move up except for AKS which was ended the day flat but still a stock I am bullish on. The speculative play on WWAT shook me out but I am going back in when the buy point is reached again. I stand committed that WWAT has some large gains possible once the volatility in it settles down. As stated in the previous posts on WWAT my plan is to scale into it (scaling into a trade further reduces your risk) as you only use a small piece of your swing trade slot funds to “test the water” and establish a position at the entry price. Then we wait, we wait for confirmation that the buyers will out number the sellers wanting to take profit on the news that there was a huge insider buy of the stock. You must keep in mind that the small and micro cap stocks there is some violent moves in the price (up or down). And a small move equals a large percentage due to the low price of the stock. So it is subject to more profit taking whenever there is news or anything that suggests the company is doing well causing the price to advance.

But WWAT has some longer term swing potential. We got thrown off the bull but this is one I am going to wrestle again.

Some were pointing out that Jones Soda (JSDA) was doing well coming off of a down trend. The chart established that there are two important resistance levels that the price has to close above (key word here is close, it has to have closed above $17.00 to show confirmation that the pattern was holding. The massive sell off today showed the pattern is not holding and not ready yet) first before we can consider it for a swing trade. And today JSDA failed that test again by not closing above a key milestone point. JSDA will become a watch list item for the RebelTrader portfolio and will have strict entry points. So far that point has not been reached. Potential swing trades must have unique chart conditions which have to be met. A sequence of events and a confirmation that it is ready to grab on the move. Those conditions have not occurred yet. But when they do we will trade it methodically and by the chart.

Watch the site over the weekend for some new watch list items and some more memebr requested charts.

Have a great weekend to all.

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