Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

The financial sector finally had some upward moves. That in addition to some good earnings pre market helped the market move into the green zone today. The DOW maintained the gain for most of the day however the S&P and the Nasdaq gave up some the of gains from the peak of the day around mid day. But at least it was an up day on all three of the major indices.

Also in the pre market was the news of the merger of Transocean (RIG) and Global SantaFe (GSF). A deal worth $53 Billion.

Today was just a taste of what is yet to come this week with many companies releasing their earnings. It will indeed be a busy week with companies reporting.

RebelTrader swing trades:

FEEC closed at $1.65, which is a gain of 5.7% from the entry price just this past Friday. When FEEC moves over $1.65 I will enter the second 1/2 of my swing trade.

WWAT continues to be a good mover. Closed today at $2.45 which is 33% up from my original entry point.

WDC closed up today at $22.89 and this swing trade stands at 12.3% gain from the original entry price.

NHWK closed up today at $21.36 and this swing trade is currently a 10.1% gain from the entry price.

I closed the AKS swing trade today because earnings are due tomorrow but the main reason is that there has been some recent earnings from other companies in this sector that had bearish outlook on the metals sector. I did not want to risk holding AKS through the earnings and possibly being exposed to bearish outlook from the company. AKS was closed at a break even (less than 1.0% gain).

The Rebeltrader portfolio continues to rack up good gains. Tomorrow I will continue to work on the new watch list items and more trade ideas.

“May the Bulls be with you” (yes, I’m a Star Wars fan!)

I’m closing the swing trade on AKS here now. Closing trade at $38.69. There is some bearish sentiment in the metals industry of late and AKS will provide their earnings release tomorrow. I don’t want to risk a possible negative surprise from AKS should they have any bad news on the sector as a whole. They could release good earnings numbers but any comment on the sector being weak will send AKS down as well as other steel/metal sector stocks.

Closing AKS here is the smart thing to do. It would have been nice if it was able to have a good run up to this point but I’ll take the small gain anytime as opposed to risking it to a loss should their earnings have anything negative in it.

RebelTrader plays WWAT,WDC,BIG,NHWK, AKS all trading up. I expect to see GRP trading up soon.

WWAT already working on new highs again. NHWK running up quickly again this morning. Some good gains for the RebelTrader portfolio again.

The big winner so far today in the rebeltrader portfolio is ONT. It is up over 10% today so far. A good bounce play this has become. That was why I changed the setup conditions for ONT from the original game plan. When I identified the pullback to a key level the play changed to a buy on signs of a bounce (remember, we don’t buy on the way down, we buy after it hit then catch it as it comes back up).

The metals sector is good today and AKS is slowly making upward movement. Oil Services GRP also doing nicely again today, BIG is another big winner today as the retail sector is hot today.

The only bad play in the book right now is JSDA. Has not been able to keep itself above water as the word of the CEO’s conversation on CNBC has made the rounds and has let the shorts take over control for now. Too bad, without the CEO this could have been a good trend reversal play. It still might but I won’t leave my money in there and risk it. Took my 1/2 position off the table when it hit the stop at $16.90.

The sectors that are doing bad today are biotech & restaurants.

Now, the biggest news of all is that the DJIA has broken out of the trading range (see the DJIA chart on my public chart list: Public charts.) Right now at this time we are above the top of the trading range. If we close above that trading range then we are one step away from returning to a bull mode.

Today AKS is up nicely on the strong metals sector, NTGR is up on a breakout into new highs, ONT is accumulating here and is ticking up ever so slowly but looking good so far, BIG is still above the original buy point and is still collecting large buys going through the tape, GRP is also trading up and I am still bullish on the oil services sector, WDC is also holding on even after the big fall yesterday. The tech sector is doing fairly well considering the overall bearish worries of the markets right now.

Only holding not doing well this morning is JSDA. Down 3.7% on what I can assume is a lack of confidence in the company from comments the CEO made on CNBC last night. I was prepared to sell early and not wait for the stop loss point if I saw any panic selling on JSDA. It is down but I don’t see any panic, and it is holding above the stop loss point through the morning. So I am giving it a chance.

Asian stocks pick up steam, the Nikkei 255 rallies to a 7 year high. European markets up.

Analyst ‘ThinkEquity’ raises their price target for Google (GOOG) to $700.00.

I’m watching JSDA. After pulling back most of its gains on Friday on a steady drop all day Friday it is trading up again in pre market. $17.00 is a key pivot point for JSDA. A close above that point will add confidence that JSDA is reversing the trend. I may take a 1/3 position in JSDA today, but I will watch the trading pattern before I decide. JSDA so far has not shown a commitment to continue the rally. The trading on Friday was a huge signal of a possible failed rally. But today it looks as if it will make another try.

I’m seeing some potential for strength in the metals sector today. May have a boost for our open position AKS. Also seeing strength this morning in solar stocks. The solar plays have been volatile, fast runs then hard stops and some wild pullbacks.

The week ahead:

• Monday: 10 year TIPS data (description of TIPS)
• Tuesday: Redbook, Consumer credit
• Wednesday: Wholesale inventories, Crude inventories
• Thursday: Initial claims, Trade balance, Monthly budget statement
• Friday: Export/Import price data, Retail sales, business inventories

On Tuesday Fed Chairman will be speaking about inflation in Massachusetts, on Wednesday Fed reserve governor Kevin Walsh will testify before the House financial Services Committee on hedge funds and systematic risk.

Futures are essentially flat, oil has dropped some but is still above $72. Note: If oil moves to $75 then we will start seeing more pullbacks in many sectors.

“May the bulls be with you”

The day started out with futures basically flat. Then the unemployment data was released and there were no surprises. It came in as expected. At first the market reacted a bit negative to the numbers. I believe for the most part the data was priced in the markets already.

Then by about 10am the mood turned positive and we had a smooth, somewhat uneventful day of lower than normal volume buying. Best sectors today were Gold,Coal,Housing (hard to believe!), Retail,Silver,Energy,Computer hardware,Internet,Semis,Steel, and Brokers

The ones that did poorly: Paper, Telecom, Biotech,Utilities,computer software

Rebeltrader plays did well today, all posting a move up except for AKS which was ended the day flat but still a stock I am bullish on. The speculative play on WWAT shook me out but I am going back in when the buy point is reached again. I stand committed that WWAT has some large gains possible once the volatility in it settles down. As stated in the previous posts on WWAT my plan is to scale into it (scaling into a trade further reduces your risk) as you only use a small piece of your swing trade slot funds to “test the water” and establish a position at the entry price. Then we wait, we wait for confirmation that the buyers will out number the sellers wanting to take profit on the news that there was a huge insider buy of the stock. You must keep in mind that the small and micro cap stocks there is some violent moves in the price (up or down). And a small move equals a large percentage due to the low price of the stock. So it is subject to more profit taking whenever there is news or anything that suggests the company is doing well causing the price to advance.

But WWAT has some longer term swing potential. We got thrown off the bull but this is one I am going to wrestle again.

Some were pointing out that Jones Soda (JSDA) was doing well coming off of a down trend. The chart established that there are two important resistance levels that the price has to close above (key word here is close, it has to have closed above $17.00 to show confirmation that the pattern was holding. The massive sell off today showed the pattern is not holding and not ready yet) first before we can consider it for a swing trade. And today JSDA failed that test again by not closing above a key milestone point. JSDA will become a watch list item for the RebelTrader portfolio and will have strict entry points. So far that point has not been reached. Potential swing trades must have unique chart conditions which have to be met. A sequence of events and a confirmation that it is ready to grab on the move. Those conditions have not occurred yet. But when they do we will trade it methodically and by the chart.

Watch the site over the weekend for some new watch list items and some more memebr requested charts.

Have a great weekend to all.

Market volatility (VIX) is increasing this morning and has us once again in a bearish stance. Up and down, up and down, and up and down we go within this trading range. This see saw action is getting tiring.

At 10 am US east coast time the E.I.A. energy statistics were released and they were bearish for the energy sector. Oil fell back some and some of the energy sector stocks are taking some punishment this morning.

AMX is doing super here and is soaring on good volume. Were up almost 5% from my original buy point just a few days ago.

AKS is consolidating around the original buy point. Still bullish on this metal sector play.

BIG has pulled back but still remains above the original buy point of $29.20. Some consolidation taking place but still seeing some large uptick trades going through so other people are also playing BIG for a move up soon.

WDC posting gains this morning and holding up well in the market volatility so far.

The only real notable event today was the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) released their June manufacturing index. The index was 56% which was a bit higher than the market was expecting. This eased the minds of some in that it suggests a lighter inflation picture. Remember that the markets are all about greed and fear. The bulls and bears will jump all over any news that feeds them. While there was food for the bulls today it only takes something else to turn the table and get the bears hungry.

The market advance today brought AKS up to my buy point. AKS was entered long @ $38.58.

Current open position BIG also advanced well today and got close to the second buy point for adding the next 1/3 of the swing trade funds.

Watch list item WDC also advanced fairly well today and if the upward move continues then we will reach the buy point.

Some subscribers to RebelTraders knows I am long on FRPT as a long term play. The close on Friday was a great price for any new investors. Today that proved to be correct. FRPT rallied almost 10% today. And after the close of the market today there was news that Congress may be adding additional funds to purchase 4 times more vehicles, the type that FRPT builds. This will most likely add to the momentum in FRPT.

On the DOW index we are still stuck inside this trading range that we have been in for a month now. We really need to see a move out of this range in order to see the market regain some composure and get the volatility back down and stable.

Fp80

Just nothing going on in the afternoon to bring investors and traders to the tables. We had good buying in the morning session as the 3rd quarter kicks off. But being the holiday week the volume is low. And in the afternoon it became evident. One good thing is that there seems to be no rush to be selling anything so that is why I took the position in AKS earlier.

Most sectors with the exception of Paper, Comp Hardware, Software, and Housing are doing good.

After some early morning buying volume it had tapered off and fell back slightly. It is picking up again and now I’m going to take a position in AKS here at $38.58

Long AKS @ 38.58