Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

BIG has hit the stop. This market pullback is nasty. BIG closed at $28.20

I was getting tired of waiting for BIG to make its move. So getting stopped out is not such a bad thing..

At lunch time the markets were in good shape. Even the financial sector was showing some signs of life!

The sectors doing poorly are housing, and Oil services/suppliers due to the drop in crude oil price today. Coal and Natural gas also down today.

Most of the other sectors are in the green at this time.

The big movers today in the Rebeltrader swing trades is WWAT, WDC, NHWK.

FEEC is pulling back on low volume so I have no worries about that. Does not need to jump up overnight (even though we would like all our plays to do that

I am patiently giving BIG some room to make a move. However if there is no significant movement by the middle of the week I will close the trade. Too many other moving stocks to play to just let this one sit and collect dust while it waits for the market to stop bouncing it around.

The Rebeltrader portfolio is making a nice gain today so far.

RebelTrader plays WWAT,WDC,BIG,NHWK, AKS all trading up. I expect to see GRP trading up soon.

WWAT already working on new highs again. NHWK running up quickly again this morning. Some good gains for the RebelTrader portfolio again.

A good day for the RebelTrader portfolio. This morning I entered a new swing trade on NightHawk Radiology (NHWK) at $19.40 (1/2 position to start with). NHWK continued upward throughout the day and closed the day up 7.4% ( up 3.9% from my entry point). I had NHWK on my watch list since Tuesday and today it performed very well and met my buy point. I will monitor NHWK for the next entry point for the remaining 1/2. With the big gain today I expect to see some pullback on profit taking but I don’t see that lasting too long before it continues up again.

Today I sold NetGear (NTGR) because I saw what was starting to look like it was topping out. That means that there just was not enough buyers left to out number the sellers and that we were going to end the day with a doji (doji: The name given to a chart pattern which signals indecision). With that trading pattern developing I decided to take the gains and close the trade. NTGR provided a 5.1% gain in 10 days. Remember that it is not important to squeeze every penny out of a trade, what is important is that you have more winners than you do losers. Don’t focus on how big the gain is, instead focus on keeping the losses small. The gains will add up.. Every gain is a winner!

SanDisk (SNDK) released good numbers and investors were happy as in after hours the trading was up 6.5%. This will help the PC hardware sector, and may even rub off a little on my Western Digital (WDC) trade..

Both posting additional gains for the Rebeltrader portfolio. BIG is trying to stay green. Not giving up on BIG just yet. GRP also posting more gains to the portfolio this morning.

Sub Prime made the headlines again after the market closed. It is being reported that a comment made by Bear Sterns is that two of their hedge funds with ties to the sub prime mortgage business are now essentially worthless. Reportedly now worth less than 10 cents on the dollar. I said last week that we have not heard the end of the sub prime woes and I’ll say it again here. The sub prime problem has yet to fully propagate into other areas/sectors. There will be more headlines concerning sub prime in the months to come.

The financial sector needs to be watched closely as it is a heavyweight in the markets. Where the financials go the rest of the market follows in time. We must get some good earnings reports from the big finance giants in the coming days and weeks to lift the sector. Today there was profit taking ahead of what I see to be apprehension on the part of the traders of more bad news on the financial sector front.

Today On2 Technologies (ONT) hit my stop and my trade was closed automatically. I sold my shares at $2.55. A shame too, because I am still bullish on ONT. But rules are rules, discipline in trading is the ONLY way you will survive and win the game for the long term. If you never set limits (stop loss) for your investments then you are on the road to a financial disaster, for you are relying on hope and not a plan. All winners on Wall Street will tell you the same thing, they have a plan on when they exit their trades/investments, no ifs, ands, or buts. Preservation of capital comes first.

Remember that you have to earn more gains to make up for your losses. Lets say you have a stock that you bought at $20 a share last year, and the current price is $10 a share. You have lost 50% of your money on that investment. Now in order to get your money back (break even) that stock now has to increase 100%. That is why the experts and pros always cut their losses quickly and within a set limit. It is easier to make up for the loss if your losses are kept small.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade BIG (retail sector) is lagging. But looking at the sector chart I’m seeing what is looking like a bounce coming soon. So I’m still bullish on BIG as long as the sector is still bullish which it is, just in a pullback currently. The $RLX chart is telling me a rebound is near.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade Western Digital (WDC) is in a good spot right now as that sector is in a breakout mode. Will keep WDC for as long as I can squeeze a gain out of it. NetGear (NTGR)is also on a good run and will keep an eye on it so as to not let the gains slip away if the broad markets turn sour.

GRP, the oil service sector company is set to rebound according to the oil services sector chart. I’m watching the $OSX and I see a bounce from the moving average to be the most likely event to happen.

The remainder of this week will be wild in the markets I anticipate. Be sure to have a seat belt on! Any bad earnings reports from large companies are going to be felt in the markets more than usual.

Most of my open swing trades have opened to the upside this morning. NTGR is performing very well.

BIG has been basing around the original buy point. This stock is not catching the retail wave yet. I’m sticking with it until I see a signal that says it is not going to make it.

ONT has pulled back to the support range. Each time ONT pulls back to around the $2.60 area then some big trades go through on an uptick. Other traders are seeing this $2.60 area as a key support as well. I’m holding onto ONT

WDC is catching the beginning of a tech rally (albeit still weak). My entry on WDC could not be more perfect to take advantage of a tech rally. If Intel reports good numbers when they release their quarterly numbers then expect to see WDC and NTGR to be lifted up as well.

ONT has pulled back to the support level. There are many whipsaws going on this morning in many stocks. I am not concerned with ONT’s pullback at this time. Watching the tape I see large block trades with an uptick going through so others out there are seeing this as the buying opportunity. I am holding my ONT position.

BIG – the retail sector is weak so far this morning. BIG is consolidating again just above the original buy point. Seems to be some confusion in the market as to which sectors the large money want to tackle. I watch some oil plays go from red to green and back to red again this morning. Seems as if the large money is re-adjusting their underwear to get ready for the next rally if it comes.

The big winner so far today in the rebeltrader portfolio is ONT. It is up over 10% today so far. A good bounce play this has become. That was why I changed the setup conditions for ONT from the original game plan. When I identified the pullback to a key level the play changed to a buy on signs of a bounce (remember, we don’t buy on the way down, we buy after it hit then catch it as it comes back up).

The metals sector is good today and AKS is slowly making upward movement. Oil Services GRP also doing nicely again today, BIG is another big winner today as the retail sector is hot today.

The only bad play in the book right now is JSDA. Has not been able to keep itself above water as the word of the CEO’s conversation on CNBC has made the rounds and has let the shorts take over control for now. Too bad, without the CEO this could have been a good trend reversal play. It still might but I won’t leave my money in there and risk it. Took my 1/2 position off the table when it hit the stop at $16.90.

The sectors that are doing bad today are biotech & restaurants.

Now, the biggest news of all is that the DJIA has broken out of the trading range (see the DJIA chart on my public chart list: Public charts.) Right now at this time we are above the top of the trading range. If we close above that trading range then we are one step away from returning to a bull mode.

Today AKS is up nicely on the strong metals sector, NTGR is up on a breakout into new highs, ONT is accumulating here and is ticking up ever so slowly but looking good so far, BIG is still above the original buy point and is still collecting large buys going through the tape, GRP is also trading up and I am still bullish on the oil services sector, WDC is also holding on even after the big fall yesterday. The tech sector is doing fairly well considering the overall bearish worries of the markets right now.

Only holding not doing well this morning is JSDA. Down 3.7% on what I can assume is a lack of confidence in the company from comments the CEO made on CNBC last night. I was prepared to sell early and not wait for the stop loss point if I saw any panic selling on JSDA. It is down but I don’t see any panic, and it is holding above the stop loss point through the morning. So I am giving it a chance.

Watch WDC for the next entry point