Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

An interesting number this time… 99 banks to fail this year in the US. After a quiet couple of weeks with no bank failures, here we go again. An article suggests even that 100 could only be 10 % of the number of total bank failures through to 2011, thus topping Meredith Whitney’s prediction of 300 bank failures by year’s end.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 16, 2009

San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Citizens Business Bank, Ontario, California, to assume all of the deposits of San Joaquin Bank.

The five branches of San Joaquin Bank will reopen on Monday as branches of Citizens Business Bank. Depositors of San Joaquin Bank will automatically become depositors of Citizens Business Bank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice from Citizens Business Bank that it has completed systems changes to allow other Citizens Business Bank branches to process their accounts as well.

This evening and over the weekend, depositors of San Joaquin Bank can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of September 29, 2009, San Joaquin Bank had total assets of $775 million and total deposits of approximately $631 million. Citizens Business Bank did not pay the FDIC a premium for the deposits of San Joaquin Bank. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, Citizens Business Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and Citizens Business Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $683 million of San Joaquin Bank’s assets. Citizens Business Bank will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-share arrangement is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The agreement also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers. For more information on loss share, please visit: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/lossshare/index.html.

Customers who have questions about today’s transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-800-423-6395. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Pacific Daylight Time (PDT); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., PDT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., PDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., PDT. Interested parties also can visit the FDIC’s Web site at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/sanjoaquin.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $103 million. Citizens Business Bank’s acquisition of all the deposits was the “least costly” resolution for the FDIC’s DIF compared to alternatives. San Joaquin Bank is the 99th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the tenth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Affinity Bank, Ventura, on August 28, 2009.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 28, 2009

Affinity Bank, Ventura, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Pacific Western Bank, San Diego, California, to assume all of the deposits of Affinity Bank.

Affinity Bank had ten branches. The former Affinity Bank branches located in San Francisco and San Mateo will reopen starting tomorrow and the remaining branches will reopen on Monday as branches of Pacific Western Bank. Depositors of Affinity Bank will automatically become depositors of Pacific Western Bank. Depositors will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers should continue to use their existing branches until Pacific Western Bank can fully integrate the deposit records of Affinity Bank.

This evening and over the weekend, depositors of Affinity Bank can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of July 10, 2009, Affinity Bank had total assets of $1 billion and total deposits of approximately $922 million. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, Pacific Western Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and Pacific Western Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $934 million of Affinity Bank’s assets. Pacific Western Bank will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-sharing arrangement is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The agreement also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers.

Customers who have questions about today’s transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-800-640-2631. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Pacific Daylight Time (PDT); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., PDT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., PDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., PDT. Interested parties can also visit the FDIC’s Web site at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/affinity-ca.html. The FDIC will make available Chinese-speaking representatives in the following branches: Sunset and Richmond in San Francisco, and San Mateo.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $254 million. Pacific Western Bank’s acquisition of all the deposits was the “least costly” resolution for the FDIC’s DIF compared to alternatives. Affinity Bank is the 84th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the ninth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Vineyard Bank, National Association, Rancho Cucamonga, on July 17, 2009.

Recent reports in the media have been jumping at statistics provided by the Realtors Association in California that showed home sales were improving ’significantly’.

But, today the California Association of Realtors disclosed they made a mistake. The numbers they reported for home sales in the San Diego area were sharply ‘overstated’.

The California Association of Realtors expects to make sharp downward revisions in its recent monthly reports of soaring home sales in the San Diego area, Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the trade group, said in an interview.

The revisions are likely to be announced in late July, when
the Realtor group reports home sales for June.  The problem resulted from a glitch in data from a multiple-listing service in San Diego, Mr. Kleinhenz said. He said a change in computer systems used there resulted in incorrect data being sent to the Realtor association over the past year or so.[...]

The California Realtors have reported that San Diego sales in April were up about 63% from a year earlier. Mr. Kleinhenz said that is expected to be revised downward to a gain of about 20%. For May, the group reported an 89% increase in sales in San Diego; that will be slashed to about 6.5%, the economist said.[...] (WSJ)

I still argue that many of the homes being purchased in California (and in other states) are foreclosure properties, and this is distorting the ‘organic‘ sales figures drastically . Let us not forget the shadow inventory of homes that has yet to appear on the market as banks and other financial institutions are holding back on dumping homes onto the market place.

Today California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued an executive order in an attempt to address the serious financial issues facing the state.

EXECUTIVE ORDER S-09-09

by the

Governor of the State of California

WHEREAS due to developments in the worldwide and national financial markets, and continuing weak performance in the California economy, the General Fund deficit for the 2009-2010 fiscal year is estimated to grow to $24.3 billion; and

WHEREAS the State Controller projects that as of July 29, 2009, California will not have the cash needed to meet all of its payment obligations; and

WHEREAS the projected budget deficit will require critical cuts to State programs and services, and additional borrowing from local governments; and

WHEREAS immediate action is needed to address the budget and cash crisis facing the State of California; and

WHEREAS immediate action to reduce current spending must be taken to ensure, to the maximum extent possible, that the essential services of the State are not jeopardized and the public health and safety is preserved; and

WHEREAS State agencies and departments under my direct executive authority must take all available steps to reduce their expenses to achieve budget and cash savings.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor of the State of California, in accordance with the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the statutes of the State of California, do hereby issue the following orders to become effective immediately:

IT IS ORDERED that except for projects funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, or projects funded by bonds, grants or projects specifically mandated by court orders, or public-private partnerships that require no direct state expenditures, any funds encumbered on or after March 1, 2009, for contracts entered into for which goods or services have not been provided or for contracts proposed to be entered into during the 2008-2009 fiscal year by State agencies and departments, regardless of funding source, are hereby disencumbered and the funds will revert to their original funding source if no legal liability will be incurred by the State.  If a legal liability will be incurred by the State, approval to continue encumbering the funds must be obtained from the Agency Secretary and the Director of the Department of Finance.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that by 30 days after the passage of a revised budget for fiscal year 2009-2010, all State departments, regardless of funding source, shall submit a plan to their Agency Secretary that provides for a reduction of the amount of the department’s appropriation to be encumbered by new contracts, extended contracts or purchases from statewide master contracts in the 2009-2010 fiscal year by at least 15 percent, whether the reduction results from cancellation, suspension, renegotiation or otherwise.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that effective immediately and until a State department’s plan is approved by the Agency Secretary, a State department is prohibited from entering into any new contracts, amending existing contracts, issuing purchase orders for goods or services, or making purchases from statewide master agreements or leveraged procurement agreements for goods or services.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the Director of the Department of Finance shall establish an exemption process regarding all contract cost reduction measures contained in this Order that Agency Secretaries and Cabinet-level Directors shall utilize to determine if an exemption is justified based on an emergent situation to preserve and protect human life and safety; avoiding significant revenue loss; achieving significant net cost savings; maintaining multi-year IT system and service contracts approved by the Office of the Chief Information Officer; or providing critical services and functions.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the services and functions of state government directly related to the preservation and protection of human life and safety, including but not limited to emergency and disaster response activities and the provision of 24-hour medical care, shall be deemed critical and exempt from this Order.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that all Agency Secretaries and Department Directors shall take immediate action to implement this Order to reduce state expenditures.

IT IS REQUESTED that other entities of State government not under my direct executive authority, including the California Public Utilities Commission, the University of California, the California State University, California Community Colleges, the legislative branch (including the Legislative Counsel Bureau), and judicial branch, implement similar or other mitigation measures to achieve budget and cash savings and additional transparency in state government.

This Order is not intended to create, and does not create, any rights or benefits, whether substantive or procedural, or enforceable at law or in equity, against the State of California or its agencies, departments, entities, officers, employees, or any other person.

I FURTHER ORDER that, as soon as hereafter possible, this Order shall be filed in the Office of the Secretary of State and that widespread publicity and notice be given to this Order.

The UPI reports the following…

A flood of telephone calls, an antiquated computer system and dwindling funds are overwhelming California’s jobless benefits delivery system, officials say.

At the same time as the state’s unemployment insurance fund is running low, California’s unemployment rate is approaching a 15-year high, the Los Angeles Times reported Sunday. The jobless rate hit 8.4 percent in November, up from 8.2 percent in October.

(read more…)

The state of California may very well be first on the list of states to be ‘bailed out’ by the new Obama administration. And it will very likely NOT be the last either.

From the Los Angeles Times:

California controller to suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants…

John Chiang announces that his office will suspend $3.7 billion in payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, because with no budget in place the state lacks sufficient cash to pay its bills.[...]

[...]The state will suspend tax refunds, welfare checks, student grants and other payments owed to Californians starting Feb. 1, Controller John Chiang announced Friday.

(read more…)