Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

This morning the Q3 GDP was revised lower to 2.8% (from 3.5%) and personal consumption was also revised lower to 2.9% (from 3.2%).

The mortgage industry is still falling apart from within. Consider this news out of Freddie Mac (FRE) this morning:

Freddie Mac Reports Oct monthly metrics; Single Family delinquency rate 3.54% v 3.33% m/m

Until there is a significant improvement in delinquencies this data still suggests much steeper losses lay ahead of us in the financial sector.

S&P Case Shiller Price Index came in ‘not so hot’:

SEPT S&P/CASESHILLER-20 Y/Y: -9.36% V -9.10%E;   HOME PRICE INDEX: 146.5 V 146.9E

It had been showing the slightest sign of stabilization in recent reports, now it is headed back down again.

During the overnight hours we got confirmation of the channel on the S&P E-mini’s with the /ES trading down to 1098, right at the channel support line.

Watch this channel carefully, a move below the channel is the dynamic change needed to set this market into a new downward path. The range of the channel is 1100 on the bottom and 1120 on the high side.

S&P Futures

DECEMBER CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX: 150.66 V 154.59 PRIOR

COMPOSITE 20 INDEX: -18.55% V -18.20% PRIOR

- For the fourth consecutive month all 20 regions experienced price declines

From the WSJ:

Home prices continued their multiyear slide in December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as both the 10-city and 20-city index posted record declines, making 2008 the second-straight full year of declining home prices.

The Sun Belt continues to be hit hardest, and nationally, home prices are at levels similar to late 2003.

The U.S. National Home Price index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, fell 18% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the largest decline in the measure’s 21-year history.

“There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. “Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and eight of those [areas] now with negative rates exceeding 20%.”

The Case-Shiller home price index for November reveals home prices continue to decline, and by record amounts again.

NOVEMBER CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX: 154.59 V 158.12 PRIOR; COMPOSITE 20 INDEX: -18.18%

All 20 regions tracked by the Case-Shiller Index recorded monthly declines with Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, New York, Portland, and Seattle posting record monthly declines.

This mornings S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (October data release) shows housing prices continue to slide downward.

The Case-Shiller index of the top 20 metropolitan areas reports new record declines. From the peak in the Summer of 2006 prices have now fallen nearly 25%. The drop in prices from September to October was an additional 2.2%.

(read more…)