Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

The following is a guest post. I felt this article, submitted to me by James over at OilPrice.com, was significant in respect to the oil markets.

Iraqi Elections Likely To Fuel Ethnic Tensions, Further Delay Access To Kirkuk’s Reserves

Iraqi Elections Likely To Fuel Ethnic Tensions, Further Delay Access To Kirkuk’s Reserves

The elections in Iraq on March 7, 2010, are likely to serve as an important indicator of the prospects for a resolution of the long-running dispute over the administration of the ethnically mixed and resource-rich province of Kirkuk in the north of the country.

The Iraqi Kurds have repeatedly called for Kirkuk to be transferred to the control of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which already administers three provinces in the predominantly Kurdish north of Iraq. The other ethnic groups in Iraq – including the Arab-dominated government in Baghdad – are equally insistent that Kirkuk should remain under central control and that any oil or gas revenues should be divided between the entire population of the country rather than all going to the KRG.

The failure to resolve the issue of the eventual status of Kirkuk threatens not only prospects for permanent political stability in Iraq but also hopes of extracting the province’s huge reserves and building new oil and gas pipelines from Kirkuk to Turkey, and from there to energy-hungry Western markets.

“We are very interested in the oil and gas reserves in Kirkuk. Who wouldn’t be?” said one executive from a leading European energy company. “We would like to invest in the region, perhaps even become involved in building one of the pipelines. But we can’t do anything unless this issue is resolved. At the moment, the risk of political instability is just too great.”

The Iraqi Kurds have long maintained that, historically, Kirkuk is a Kurdish province but that it was subjected to a process of Arabization under former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who deported a significant proportion of its indigenous Kurds and replaced them with ethnic Arabs. No one doubts that such a campaign was launched, although the scale of the deportations is hotly disputed.

Since the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, the KRG has assumed de facto control of education and security in Kirkuk. Other ethnic groups have accused the KRG of resettling hundreds of thousands of ethnic Kurds in the province, including not only those who were originally from Kirkuk but also a large number of Kurds from other areas. They claim that the KRG’s ultimate aim is to change the demographic balance in the province in the run-up to a constitutionally required – but long overdue – referendum on the status of Kirkuk. They fear that, if a referendum results in a vote for union with the KRG, the Iraqi Kurds will attempt to use the revenue from the province’s oil and gas reserves as the economic foundations for their long-held dream of an independent Kurdish state. It is a prospect which alarms not only the Iraqi government in Baghdad but also several of the country’s neighbors. Syria, Iran and – particularly – Turkey all worry that the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq will further fuel secessionist tendencies amongst their own already restive Kurdish minorities.

The evidence on the ground in Kirkuk suggests that there is some truth to the allegations of demographic manipulation. In September 2009, local officials in Kirkuk estimated that the population of the province stood at 1.4 million, up from 850,000 at the time of the US invasion in March 2003. More significantly, the voter registry in Kirkuk has increased from 400,000 in 2004 to 900,000 for the March 7 elections. A dispute between Kurds and other ethnic groups over how many seats to allocate to Kirkuk to accommodate this huge increase in voters resulted in the entire election being put back two months after originally being scheduled for January 2010.

Although a compromise was eventually agreed, the real test is likely to come after the election itself. As happened at the last Iraqi general election, the two main Kurdish parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – are running on a joint ticket, the so-called Kurdistani Alliance, together with five minor parties. However, this time they will face a challenge from a new party called “Goran” (meaning “Change”), which is dominated by former members of the PUK who had become exasperated by the widespread corruption and misuse of resources in the three provinces under the KRG’s control.

In the July 2009 elections for the KRG, Goran picked up 23.5 percent of the vote. It is also expected to perform well in Kirkuk on March 7, 2010. But Goran has already declared that, however much it may be opposed to the KDP/PUK in other areas, it is in complete agreement with them on iconic issues such as the transfer or Kirkuk to KRG control. As a result, the predominance of ethnic Kurds in Kirkuk means that the main hope for those opposed to the transfer of Kirkuk to the KRG is that voters break with the pattern of previous elections in Iraq and vote across ethnic lines. If the Kurdish parties fail to win an overwhelming majority in the province, then it will be much more difficult for them to push for the inclusion of Kirkuk in the territory administered by the KRG and they may be more prepared to reach a compromise with other ethnic groups on the division of revenue from Kirkuk’s oil and gas. But, for the moment at least, the signs are that the Kurds of Kirkuk will again vote along ethnic lines – which is likely to encourage the Iraq Kurds to renew their calls for a referendum and the eventual transfer of both the province and its oil and gas to the KRG.

Even if the Kurdish parties sweep Kirkuk, there is still no indication that any of the other ethnic groups in Iraq or the central government in Baghdad is prepared to allow the KRG to take over Kirkuk. Consequently, the most likely outcome of the March 7 general election in Kirkuk appears to be an increase in political tensions; and, as long as the standoff remains unresolved, energy companies are likely to continue to be reluctant to make substantial investments in extracting the province’s hydrocarbons and transferring them to Western markets.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-iraqi-elections-likely-to-fuel-ethnic-tensions-further-delay-access-to-kirkuks-reserves.html

This article written by Gareth Jenkins for OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

Crude Oil Hits Ceiling in Week as Hedge Funds Attack Euro

Oil Market Summary for 02/22/2010 to 02/26/2010

Crude oil broke through the $80 a barrel ceiling repeatedly during the week but kept falling back as hedge funds placed big bets on the Euro’s decline.

The fiscal drama in Greece held global markets hostage much of the week as worries about the impact of the Greek crisis on the euro outweighed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke about continued low interest rates in the U.S., pushing the euro down against the dollar and damping crude prices.

The euro recovered some ground on Friday amid new reports of European aid for Greece after falling to a nine-month low of $1.3440 on Thursday. Germany’s state-owned bank KfW may take part in a planned Greek bond offering next week, according to market reports.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that a small group of elite hedge fund traders have concluded that the euro could be headed to parity with the dollar and their bearish bets are increasing the downward pressure on the 16-nation currency.

The Journal compared the situation to the hedge fund attack on the dollar in 2008. However, the trades are not expected to lead to a collapse of the currency as the attacks of George Soros on the British pound did in 1992, the paper said.

Positive U.S. economic data on Friday, including a revised fourth-quarter GDP annual growth rate of 5.9%, help crude oil futures claw back some of Thursday’s losses and near the $80 threshold again. Nymex’s benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled at $79.66 on Friday, after topping $80 earlier in the week.

In spite of crude’s difficulties in staying above $80, some analysts issued bullish prognoses for energy futures. Goldman Sachs forecast a new trading range of $85 to $95, up from the $70 to $80 of the past several months, amid supply disruptions from the North Sea and Venezuela and the impact of the Total refinery strike, which was resolved earlier this week.

Other analysts, too, looked for fundamental supply and demand considerations to reassert themselves amid the currency turmoil and lift crude oil futures into a higher trading range. Oil futures prices gained more than 9% in February but remained below January’s highs.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-crude-oil-hits-ceiling-in-week-as-hedge-funds-attack-euro.html

By Darrell Delamaide of OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

The week in oil:

OilPrice.com Oil Market Summary for 02/16/2010 to 02/20/2010

An easing of the crisis in Europe gave energy markets a firm tone last week that enabled crude oil futures to gain nearly 8% amid mixed economic news and some concerns about supply.

A strike at French oil refineries lifted prices to a five-week high Friday, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate finishing the week at $79.81. The French strike threatened to limit U.S. imports of refined products from Europe.

Earlier in the week, the show of solidarity by European Union governments regarding fiscal problems in Greece and other countries in the eurozone, eased concerns about the crisis there and downward pressure on the euro.

A move Thursday by the Federal Reserve to raise the discount rate – the rate it charges banks for emergency loans – did however propel the dollar higher against the euro. News on Friday that the core inflation rate in the U.S. actually fell 0.1% in January – the first decline since 1982 – dispelled worries that the Fed would need to tighten further interest rates to combat inflation and led to a lower dollar on Friday.

The weak consumer price index and another weekly increase in jobless claims provided further evidence that U.S. economic recovery continues to be weak.

The weekly report on oil inventories, coming a day late because of the Monday holiday in the U.S., showed increases in crude oil and gasoline stocks but a bigger-than-expected drop in distillates, which includes heating oil. This news buoyed crude oil prices.

A coup in African oil producer Niger on Thursday added to some supply concerns at the end of the week to support higher crude oil prices.

Hedge funds and other speculative traders sharply increased their net long positions in crude oil futures in the week ending Feb. 16, according to trading data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, after having reduced them in the previous week.

Andrew Hall, the head of Phibro, is seeking new investors as he reorganizes his hedge fund operations in the wake of Phibro’s move from Citigroup to Occidental Petroleum. Hall, who specializes in energy trading, will manage the new Astenbeck Capital Management, named after a town in Germany where he owns a castle. According to the Financial Times, Astenbeck will take over management of two oil funds previously operating under Phibro’s aegis.

Hall was the energy trader who created a controversy while still working for Citi because of his $100 million bonus. The bonus was deemed politically unacceptable while the bank was receiving a taxpayer bailout and led to Citi selling Phibro to Oxy Pete.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-oil-prices-rise-amid-mixed-economic-data-as-euro-concerns-ebb.html

For similar articles please visit: http://www.oilprice.com or follow us on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/OilandEnergy

Once again I’m pleased to offer you the weekly oil market summary provided by the fine people at oilprice.com

OilPrice.com Oil Market Summary for 02/08/2010 – 02/12/2010

Crude oil prices took a dive on Friday after a week of gains from U.S. blizzards were undercut by another move in China to tighten monetary policy.

China’s central bank raised reserve requirements for its banks for the second time this year as it tries to curb lending and avoid asset bubbles from forming in an overheated economy. China is the world’s second-largest importer of oil, after the U.S., and one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, so energy markets are very sensitive to any change in conditions there.

Blizzard conditions in the U.S. Northeast had propelled West Texas Intermediate prices back up above $75 earlier in the week. But a decline of some 1.5% on Friday pushed prices down near $74 a barrel again. Still, oil was ahead about 4% on the week.

A revised forecast from the International Energy Agency raised expected demand for crude this year by 120,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million. However, the IEA said the increase was due to growth in emerging economies, with demand remaining flat in industrial countries, despite the unusually severe winter. The new moves in China raise question marks about that anticipated increase in demand.

U.S. data on inventories, which came out late due to snow-related government closures in Washington, showed gasoline inventories rising by 2.3 million barrels, about 1%, much more than expected. But analysts said that may be due to the simple fact that people aren’t able to drive in snowbound cities. Distillate inventories, including heating oil, fell less than expected despite the inclement weather.

A pledge by European Union leaders that they would do what it takes to keep Greece from sliding into default briefly took some of the pressure off the euro, but markets remained concerned at the lack of detail about any rescue plan. A weakening euro means a stronger dollar, which puts downward pressure on energy futures. The crisis in southern Europe threatens economic recovery in the EU and further dampens optimism for energy demand.

Bloomberg reported that Gary Gensler, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is proving to be a formidable adversary for hedge funds and other participants in derivatives trading as he pushes for reform, including restrictions in energy futures trading. Despite, or perhaps because of, his 18 years at Goldman Sachs, Gensler is insisting on position limits for energy trades and trying to close any loopholes that would let funds slip through on end-user exemptions, Bloomberg said.

Source: http://www.oilprice.com/article-chinas-monetary-moves-undercut-crude-oil-rally.html

By Darrell Delamaide for OilPrice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

From the fine folks over at oilprice.com…

OilPrice.com Oil Market Summary for 01/25/2010 – 01/29/2010

Crude oil futures slipped below $73 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate late Friday as a temporary boost from strong GDP figures failed to last and let prices sink to a one-month low.

Earlier in the week, China, weak refinery demand and slumping tech stocks all conspired to keep energy prices low, with prices oscillating around $73 a barrel.

U.S. gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted 5.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported on Friday, its fastest pace in six years. The previous quarter had registered growth of 2.2% and the year-ago period saw a downturn of 5.4%. For 2009 as a whole, GDP contracted by 2.4%, the worst record since 1946.

But analysts did not expect U.S. GDP growth to continue at the same pace in the current quarter, and concerns remained about China’s growth after authorities clamped down on bank lending.

Capacity utilization at U.S. refineries stayed near the 20-year low reached the previous week (not counting hurricane-related shutdowns), and inventories of distillates continued to rise.

The dollar, which had firmed earlier in the week after President Obama’s State of the Union message and the confirmation of Ben Bernanke for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, rose to a six-month high after the GDP news, keeping downward pressure on oil prices. The euro, hurt by Greece’s debt problems, dipped below $1.39 by Friday afternoon.

While most analysts remain cautious about economic prospects, Morgan Stanley put out an upbeat report on energy prices, forecasting that inventories would start to fall sharply in the second half of the year or OPEC would increase production on the back of stronger economic growth, particularly in emerging markets. The bank predicted a price of $95 a barrel for crude by the end of this year, $100 for 2011, and $105 for 2012, well ahead of consensus estimates.

The Morgan Stanley analysts noted that demand for gasoline alone in China and India continues to grow despite economic sluggishness.

In Davos, too, oil executives talked their book, making the case that there is simply no substitute for oil and the world economy needs more energy.

Oil prices emerged from the week somewhat battle-tested, analysts said, having withstood a sharp drop in prices of copper and other base metals on Thursday, as well as weak equities and a strengthening dollar. But weak demand continued to weigh on the market.

Originally Published at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-energy-prices-sink-lower-despite-strong-gdp-growth.html

This article was written by Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil Prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

OilPrice.com Oil Market – Summary for 01/18/2010 – 01/22/2010

New measures by Chinese authorities to curb bank lending reversed a rally in energy prices early in the week, bringing West Texas Intermediate futures down more than 4% in the second half of the week to below $75 a barrel by Friday.

China continued its efforts to slow down its economy and prevent overheating, and told some banks to stop making certain kinds of loans. The Chinese move on Wednesday hit all commodities across the board, from gold to lead, with the prospect of slower economic growth in the country.

Not even the news that China’s oil imports in December exceeded 5 million barrels of oil a day for the first time could stop the decline.

U.S. data, meanwhile, showed that demand for oil had slipped 1.8% in the four weeks leading to Jan. 15 from the like period a year ago, when the U.S. economy was in the grip of a recession. Crude inventories declined in the week, against expectations, but gasoline inventories rose. Continued milder weather in the Northeast further dampened heating oil prices.

News that utilization of U.S. refinery capacity fell to its lowest levels since the 1980s drove home the point that demand for distillates was lagging. Refinery utilization in the previous week dropped 2.9 percentage points to 78.4% of the 17.6 million barrels per day total capacity, the lowest level in two decades except for periods when hurricanes shut down refinery operations.

The U.S. and China are the world’s top two oil-consuming countries, so the signs of weakening demand in both were bearish for energy prices.

As if all that wasn’t enough, the announcement by the White House on Thursday of tough new measures to limit banks’ proprietary trading threw a double whammy in energy markets. There were concerns that Wall Street banks, among the biggest energy traders, would have to cut back their activities. Plus, the news sent equities into a tailspin, and dragged down commodities prices.

The uncertainty about U.S. bank restructuring reversed the dollar’s climb against the euro, which had also weighed on crude oil prices. After dropping below $1.41, the euro bounced back up above that level at the end of the week.

But continuing concerns about Greece’s debt and new uncertainty about whether Ben Bernanke will be confirmed for a second term as Federal Reserve chairman supported the dollar and were likely to dampen any strong rise for the euro, analysts said.

Originally published at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-crude-oil-prices-fall-victim-to-china-syndrome.html

By Darrell Delamaide for OilPrice.com who have recently launched a Free Market Intelligence Report which focuses on unique Geopolitical and Investment News which enables readers to spot trends and events in the marketplace and reduce investment risk. To find out more visit: http://www.oilprice.com

Regulators Seek to Throw Light on Hedge Fund Impact in Energy Trading

Do hedge funds have an impact on energy trading?

While the answer might seem intuitive, the debate as to whether they actually do has come to resemble the medieval theological dispute about how many angels can dance on the head of the pin.

Because, like angels, many trades in energy futures are invisible, and it is often not possible to pinpoint where they take place.

And yet, for most of us, including lawmakers on Capitol Hill, it seems obvious that when hedge funds buy and sell billions of dollars worth of oil and gas futures, it must be having an impact on energy prices. While hedge funds and other speculative traders would never dream of taking delivery of a barrel of oil, their trading activity affects the prices for actual consumers of oil and gas and their downstream customers – or so it would seem.

When Gary Gensler, a former Goldman Sachs banker and Treasury Department official, was nominated last year as chairman of the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission – the chief regulator for energy futures trading – he reversed the CFTC party line that speculators don’t have an impact on energy trading.

“I believe that excessive speculation in commodity futures can cause sudden or unreasonable fluctuations or unwarranted changes in commodity prices,” Gensler said in a written response to lawmakers’ questions ahead of his nomination hearing.

Gensler went on to pledge that if confirmed, he would have the CFTC guard against such speculation.

While he stopped short of saying that excessive speculation had taken place in the run-up of energy prices in 2008, he did express the opinion that the rapid growth of commodity index funds and increased hedge fund allocation to commodity assets contributed to the “bubble in commodities prices that peaked in mid-2008.”

He noted that non-commercial investors sometimes account for up to 90% of open interest in a contract. (Open interest is a calculation of the number of active trades for a particular market, and is used as an indicator whether trading is becoming more or less active.)

Gensler’s answer, enshrined in draft legislation currently before Congress, is to make trades more visible by requiring all over-the-counter derivatives to trade through an approved clearing house. While the thrust of new legislation is to get a better handle on financial derivatives such as credit default swaps, it will give regulators a better picture of all derivatives trading, including energy contracts.

At the same time, the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission both are beefing up their ability to monitor hedge fund activity. The SEC for the first time will require hedge funds to register as investment advisors, and Gensler has pledged closer oversight of the funds that it supervises as commodity pool operators.

The industry, predictably, is pushing back. In congressional testimony on the new legislation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest futures exchange in the world, and other exchange operators presented studies based on CFTC data to show that large positions held by index funds and other managed money were not “routinely detrimental” to the commodity markets in the period January 2005 to June 2008.

“All of the trader groups displayed instances of non-optimal behavior (including small traders), but none were consistently harmful to the studied markets,” they said.

A task force of the International Organization of Securities Regulators (IOSCO) released a report last March that came to a similar conclusion.

“While reports reviewed by the task force concluded that fundamentals rather than speculative activity was the plausible explanation for price changes, the task force has made a number of recommendations to improve the transparency and supervision of these markets,” IOSCO said.

These included suggestions regarding information about the underlying commodities, access to and sharing of information about trading positions, beefing up enforcement powers, and improving global coordination.

The spectacular collapse of the Amaranth Advisors hedge fund in 2006 when it lost $6 billion on natural gas futures did pull back the veil on hedge fund activity in energy markets. Amaranth built up its huge position in natural gas futures through OTC contracts that exactly mirrored the contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange but remained hidden from regulators, who were unable to enforce position limits designed to rein in speculative trading.

In hearings about Amaranth before various House and Senate committees as well as at the CFTC itself, it became clear, at least to many lawmakers, that contracts on unregulated trading venues can influence prices.

The case was so straightforward that it prompted the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to flex its new post-Enron mandate to stop manipulation of energy prices by pursuing disciplinary action against Amaranth.

This led to a turf war with the CFTC, which claimed exclusive jurisdiction over futures trading and argued that FERC’s mandate extended only to spot trading. FERC countered that when activity in the futures market affected spot prices, it was authorized to act.

Those proceedings ended in a joint settlement last August, before either CFTC or FERC held their administrative hearings and before an appellate court could decide the jurisdictional issue.

But the Amaranth case remains as a reminder of what a hedge fund can do in energy markets if these trades are not more transparent. Legislation bringing more visibility to the market and strengthening the hand of regulators will ensure that hedge fund activity in the energy markets will be more closely monitored and limited.

This article was written by Darrell Delamaide for OilPrice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil Prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

Chart for ‘dj’

A chart analysis of this double ETN (symbol: DTO) reveals a tightening trading range (triangle). Tough call right here on which direction it will break (upwards or downwards). If this triangle plays ‘by the book’ then it should represent a continuation pattern, in other words if it breaks to the downside then the down trend in DTO will resume.

Normally I don’t like doing chart analysis on double and/or triple ETF’s. But in this case the chart is rather clean and the triangle is pronounced. This one comes down to watching to see which way it will break.

DTO - PowerShares - Double Short Oil - Daily Chart

According to London’s Independent News meetings have already been taking place on just how some countries will break ties with the once old faithful U.S. dollar.

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years. [...]

[...] This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region’s conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.ing P

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. “One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations,” he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China’s extraordinary new financial power – along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America’s power to interfere in the international financial system – which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states. [...] Source: UK Independent

It appears clear that with each passing day there is less and less confidence in the American economy and/or the United States currency.

This chart of Crude Oil Futures shows that the black gold is still within a trading channel. But at this time the run up recently in crude prices is stuck at a short term resistance level (gap between July 1st and 2nd).

(click image for larger view)

crude oil futures chart

Crude Oil Futures (/CL) are moving up within a channel. There is a potential road block for crude oil in the short term. See gap resistance on the chart below.

If crude oil falls below the channel (white lines) then deflationary concerns will grow substantially.

(click image for full view)

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Just as with the chart of the crude oil futures shown in the previous post, we can see a similar situation with the USO ETF. Two charts are shown below, longer view, and a short term view.

(Click images for larger view)

USO ETF Chart

USO ETF Chart Daily