Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

Claiming a ‘processing error’, another statistic of economic data has been revised lower.

Census Bureau statement: January 27:

US Census Bureau: Nov Factory Orders revised to +0.6% from +1.1%
- cites processing errors
- Nov non defense orders (ex aircraft) revised lower to +2.7% from +3.6%

It was just days ago when another ‘processing error’ was revealed:

January 22, 2010:

US Commerce Dept revises Nov Durable Goods orders to -0.7% from +0.2% previously reported – cites a ‘processing error’

Things that make one say ‘hmmmmmm’

JUNE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS:  -2.5% Vs -0.6% Expected

DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: 1.1% Vs 0.0%Expected

(Prior Durables revised from +1.8% to 1.3%)
(Prior Durables Ex Transportation revised from +1.1% to 0.8%)

FEBRUARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: +3.4% V -2.5%E;

DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: +3.9% V -2.0%-

Prior Durables revised from -4.5% to -7.3% (second revision)
Prior Durables Ex Transportation revised from -3.0% to -5.9% (second revision)

Expect this months data to be revised downward significantly next month.

.                                                       FEB                         JAN                     DEC
(Dollar Amounts In Billions)

New Orders for Durables            165.56                   160.06                    172.74
Percent Change                                3.4                       -7.3                      -4.6
New Orders, Ex-Defense             153.30                  150.67                    157.00
Percent Change                                1.7                       -4.0                       -7.6
New Orders, Ex-Trans.                127.29                   122.56                    130.18
Percent Change                              3.9                         -5.9                        -5.7
Primary Metals                             13.11                      13.19                     14.10
Percent Change                            -0.6                        -6.4                      -11.7
Fabricated Metals                         23.85                     23.49                     24.80
Percent Change                              1.5                        -5.3                        -4.8
Machinery                                   24.44                       21.53                     23.93
Percent Change                             13.5                       -10.0                      -9.5
Computers/Electronics                24.25                     22.96                       24.83
Percent Change                             5.6                         -7.6                        -6.8
Electrical/Appliances                   8.57                        8.43                         9.25
Percent Change                             1.6                        -8.9                          6.8
Transportation Equipment          38.26                     37.50                       42.57
Percent Change                             2.0                       -11.9                        -1.2
Nondefense Cap. Goods             52.77                      49.15                       53.96
Percent Change                             7.4                         -8.9                       -10.3
Defense Capital Goods                 9.96                       7.37                        12.39
Percent Change                             35.3                    -40.6                         45.6
Durable Goods Shipped               179.12                  179.99                     189.91
Percent Change                            -0.5                      -5.2                           -1.5
Unfilled Orders                           773.73                 784.27                        800.36
Percent Change                           -1.3                      -2.0                             -1.5

Continuing deterioration in both…

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 588K V 575K expected

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.776M V 4.620M Expected

—–

DECEMBER DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -2.6% V -2.0%E;

DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: -3.6% V -2.7%E-

Prior Durables revised from -1.5 to -3.7% (2nd revision)
- Prior Durables Ex Transportation revised from +0.6% to -1.7% (2nd revision)

Sphere: Related Content

Santa has a LOT of work to do in today’s shortened trading day if he is to come through. The S&P 500 chart posted last night remains the one to watch for the short term support/resistance levels.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 586K CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.37M V 4.410ME
This is the highest Initial Claims since 1982 recession, a 26 year high

NOVEMBER DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.0% V -3.0%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: 1.2% V -3.0%E
- Prior Durables revised from prior revision of -6.9% to -8.4%
- Prior Durables Ex Transportation revised from prior revision of -5.4% to  -6.8%

NOVEMBER PCE CORE M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E; PCE CORE Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.0%E; PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.5%E
- Prior PCE Core year over year revised from 2.1% to 2.0%

Economic data this morning still says ‘Bah Humbug’ on the economy. Remember that the US markets close today at 1:00pm (US EST)