Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

Economic data and earnings scheduled for the week of March 15 to March 19 2010

(all times are US ET and are subject to change)

MONDAY

08:30 March Empire Manufacturing, Chile Feb Copper Exports

09:00 Jan Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Jan Total Net TIC Flows

09:15 Feb Industrial Production, Feb Capacity Utilization

13:00 March NAHB Housing Index

Earnings

Before the Open: AAON, AOB, GSOL, GTXI, HWCC, RDNT, SGK, STRL

After the Close: ATHN, ESC, GOK, HQS, SSW, SQNM, CLUB

TUESDAY

08:30 Feb Import Price Index, Feb Housing Starts, Feb Building Permits, Canada Jan Wholesale Sales

14:15 FOMC rate decision

16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before the Open: ARIA, CFSG, CYPB, DSW, EVEP, FDS, FTK, GSI, MDZ, NGPC, SCR, TBSI

After the Close: AIR, ABK, JRJC, NKBP, DFS, EM, KONG, RUE

WEDNESDAY

08:30 Feb PPI, Feb Feb PPI Ex Food & Energy

10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $21B 10-yr note auction

16:00 Fed’s Fisher to speak about learning from the crisis

Earnings

Before the Open: ATU, WNI, SMTS, TNP

After the Close: CLC, GES, MLHR, IHS, NKE, STRI

THURSDAY

07:30 Fed’s Duke speaks to bankers in Washington

08:30 Feb CPI, Feb CPI Ex Food & Energy, Feb CPI Core Index SA, Q4 Current Account Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims

10:00 February Leading Indicators, March Philadelphia Fed

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

11:00 Treasury note announcement

Earnings

Before the Open: CRAI, FDX, GME, MCS, NWY, ROST, SCVL, SMRT, VIP, WGO

After the Close: ADUS, CTAS, ICXT, PALM

FRIDAY

11:50 Former Fed Chairman Greenspan discusses the financial crisis

Earnings

Before the Open: PERY

Economic data and earnings scheduled for the week of March 8th to the 12th 2010

(all times are US ET, schedules are subject to change)

MONDAY

17:00 Fed’s Sack speaks to economists in Arlington

Earnings

Before the Open: COMV, DGW, FREE, PARD, YGE

After the Close: CAP, CPE, CASY, FRPT, HRB, MAKO, NCMI, RSCR, SNHY, TIVO, VVUS

TUESDAY

09:30 Fed’s Evans speaks to economists in Arlington

10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (last 46.8)

13:00 Treasury’s $40B 3-yr note auction

16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence (last –49)

Earnings

Before the Open: BRNC, CALP, CRIC, CODI, DKS, EJ, EXEL, GPOR, KR, LMIA, NXG, SSI, SWSI, TSTY

After the Close: AONE, AVAV, ALOG, BIDZ, SAM, PSS, DXCM, EXLS, FLOW, ICFI, JCG, SLXP, VRSK, ZIPR

WEDNESDAY

10:00 January Wholesale Inventories (last -0.8%)

10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $21B 10-yr note auction

14:00 February Monthly Budget Statement (last -$42.6B)

Earnings

Before the Open: CAS, AEO, BONT, BF.B, CRZO, PLCE, CWEI, CPIX, ESLT, ELMG, FSIN, HRBN, HWK, QLTI, SOL, TRK, RMIX, MTN

After the Close: AACC, BLDP, CLNE, FCEL, GYMB, HIL, HOTT, IDSY, IPAR, JAS, MW, MBLX, VITA, PRSC, SMTC, STAN, TTGT, WES

THURSDAY

08:30 January Trade Balance (last -$40.2B), Initial Jobless Claims (last 469K), Continuing Claims (last 4.50M)

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $13B 30-yr note auction

14:00 Fed’s Dudley speaks to London economists

Earnings

Before the Open: CSUN, DK, IMAX, JTX, MEA, PNY, SFD, STEI, SUI, BKE

After the Close: ARO, AIRM, CCO, GG, KOG, NSM, OMPI, OPTR, PSUN, PLL, POWR, ZQK, SEAC, SHFL, SWHC, ZUMZ

FRIDAY

08:30 February Advance Retail Sales (last 0.5%, ex auto 0.6%),

09:55 March preliminary University of Michigan confidence index (last 73.6)

10:00 December Business Inventories (last -0.2%)

– OKE to be added to S&P500, GHL to be added to S&P400, POWL to be added to S&P600 after the close

Earnings:

Before the Open: ANN, CTRN, HIBB, KIRK, PEI

(All times are US Eastern Time)

MONDAY

08:30 Jan Personal Income (last 0.4%), Jan Personal Spending (last 0.2%), Jan PCE Deflator y/y (last 2.1%), Jan PCE Core (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.5%), Canada Q4 GDP

08:45 Fed’s Lacker to speak to international bankers in Washington

10:00 Feb ISM Manufacturing (last 58.4), Feb ISM Prices Paid (last 70), Jan Construction Spending m/m (last -1.2%)

15:30 Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in San Francisco.

Earnings:

Before the Open: AMAG, AWI, CEDC, XTEX, DISH, SATS, EIX, EP, EPB, IART, IPI, ISIS, ME, OSG, PWRD, PSA, KGS, KWK, RGNC, RDC, SGMS, BID, SUG, NGLS, TWGP, USU

After the Close: ABM, AMCN, AMSF, CKEC, DL, FIX, DBRN, HVT, MWE, MBI, MDR, MR, NTRI, QCOR, SYKE, TNS, WRC

TUESDAY

13:00 Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks at Minneapolis Symposium

17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence (last –50)

16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

February vehicle sales – to be announced throughout the day

Earnings:

Before the Open: ALY, ARQL, AZO, WEL, BYD, BPI, CTB, CRYP, DPZ, FDP, HERO, SPLS, TECD, UNFI

After the Close: ALJ, APSG, ARCL, BGFV, BTUI, CWST, CHDN, EGLE, HOV, INAP, KCP, MATK, PDLI, RHB, URS, PAY, VISN

WEDNESDAY

07:30 Feb Challenger Job Cuts y/y (last -70.4%)

08:00 Fed’s Fisher Speaks on U.S. Recovery in New York

08:15 Feb ADP Employment Change (last -22K)

09:15 Fed’s Rosengren speaks at conference in Philadelphia

10:00 Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing (last 50.5)

10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

13:00 Fed’s Lockhart speaks in New York

14:00 Fed Beige Book

Same-store sales after the close

Earnings:

Before the Open: BIG, BJ, BWS, CSIQ, CMED, COST, DIN, JOYG, LINC, LOJN, MFB, NNI, NZ, RIMG

After the Close: AIMC, ARII, CBEY, CRA, CWTR, CCIX, CCRN, DAR, DPM, DIVX, DDMX, DAVE, FNSR, FL, FTEK, HMIN, JAZZ, LHCG, NGS, PETM, SIGM, SINA, SUNH, VOLC, WCAA, AUY

THURSDAY

Same-store sales before the open

07:00 BoE rate decision, Brazil Jan Industrial Production

07:45 ECB rate decision

08:30 Final Q4 Nonfarm Productivity (last 6.2%), Q4 Unit Labor Costs (last -4.4%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 496K), Continuing Claims (last 4.617M)

10:00 Jan Pending Home Sales (last m/m 1.0%, y/y 10.5%), Jan Factory Orders (last 1.0%), Canada Feb Ivey PMI, Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

11:00 Treasury note announcement

13:15 Fed’s Bullard to speak in St. Cloud, Minnesota

13:25 Fed’s Evans Speaks in Chicago on U.S. Economy

Earnings:

Before the Open: ECOL, FLY, BRLI, CIEN, CNSL, CRTX, DLM, FSYS, HEES, MEI, TYPE, BABY, ORN, OSTK, PPCO, PRFT, RBA, STP, SXCI, TK, USPH, URBN, WEN, WNR

After the Close: AHS, ARST, COO, DEPO, BOOM, EBS, ERII, EQY, GA, MRVL, MDSO, MENT, MOVE, PCTI, SONE, SLW, UDRL

FRIDAY

08:30 Feb Nonfarm Payrolls (last -20K), Feb Unemployment Rate (last 9.7%), Feb Manufacturing Payrolls (last 11K), Feb Average Hourly Earnings (last m/m 0.2%, y/y 2.0%)

15:00 Jan Consumer Credit (last -$1.7B)

Earnings:

Before the Open: ALC, SOLF

The technical analysis summary for Thursday evening, February 25th is now available on the ‘market videos’ page.

Friday Schedule:

(all times are US ET)

08:30 Preliminary Q4 GDP q/q (last 5.7%), Q4 GDP Price Index (last 0.6%), Q4 Personal Consumption (last 2.0%), Q4 Core PCE q/q (last 1.4%)

09:45 Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (last 61.5)

09:55 Feb Final University of Michigan Confidence (last 73.7)

10:00 Jan Existing Home Sales (last 5.45M, m/m -16.7%), Feb NAPM-Milwaukee (last 56)

10:45 Fed’s Dudley and Kocherlakota to speak at US Monetary Policy Forum

13:30 Fed’s Tarullo, Evans to speak at US Monetary Policy Forum

Earnings

Before the Open: CAS, BIOS, CNP, DRH, FCN, ZINC, IPG, JRCC, MGLN, MCCC, MPR, MSA, MIR, NWN, POM, SUSS, TTI, TREX

No time for the video this evening folks, so I’ll have to do a quick written analysis here for you.

On Wednesday the S&P 500 E-Mini’s retraced back to the area around 1105 which I highlighted in the February 23rd video. That resistance level held during the Wednesday retracement upward.

At this time the futures have declined quite significantly on the heels of more warnings coming in regarding Greece, and some new concerns over the China housing market.

Moody’s: Greece fiscal position is unchanged. Reiterates it may cut sovereign rating further if Greece deviates from fiscal reform — Note that Greece’s sovereign debt carries an A2 rating at Moody’s, two notches above the equivalent ratings at Fitch and S&P (BBB+). If Moody’s were to recalibrate its rating in line with its peers, it would render Greece’s sovereign debt ineligible for ECB repo operations when collateral criteria reverts to the normal minimum thresholds (A3/A- or above) at the end of 2010.

On the back of the growing concerns over Greece the Euro/USD is moving downward, and as expected, the US dollar futures are moving upward, currently sitting at 81.13 at the time of this writing. The S&P futures are down nearly 8 points at this time.

The chart shown below is that of the S&P 500 E-mini futures (hourly scale). Observe the white channel lines that I have discussed over the past week in the market videos. On Tuesday the E-mini’s tested the lower channel twice, one of those occurrences taking place in the overnight session. At this time the futures are once again testing the lower channel boundary. This is a critical spot for the market. If the futures break below the channel on this hourly chart, then our first support level is a pivot point, and that level is 1088.

(click image for full size)

All eyes are on the lower channel line. A failure to bounce here would be bearish, a break below the 1088 level would be very bearish for the near term. If the channel holds, and the market bounces from here, then I will be looking at the area of 1105 to 1108 for the first resistance level. That is how the charts look at this time.

Sorry for no video this evening folks. I hope this quick analysis will suffice until the Thursday evening video update.

Thursday Schedule:

(all times are US ET)

08:30 Jan Durable Goods Orders (last 1.0%, ex-transport 1.4%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 473K), Continuing Claims (last 4.563M)

09:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify before Senate Banking Committee

10:00 Dec House Price Index (last 0.7%)

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $32B 7-yr note auction

13:15 Fed’s Bullard to speak on US economic outlook

Earnings

Before the Open: ACIW, CRMT, ANSS, WTR, ARCC, ARIA, ABG, BRY, BVF, CSE, CTL, CDE, CCOI, CLR, DT, DLR, DPS, DYN, EMCI, EME, ESV, EXH, FAF, FIG, FWLT, FTO, GLS, GNA, GLF, HNZ, HOC, H, ICLR, IRM, KDN, KBR, KG, KSS, LAMP, LINE, LKQX, MIC, MGA, PCS, MYL, NEM, NIHD, NRF, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, PKD, PXP, TUTR, POR, RRI, REV, SWY, SIRI, SMBL, FIRE, SPW, STXS, SHOO, SCMR, SMA, TTES, TDS, SNAK, THI, TRW, USM, VIT, WTI

After the Close: AGO, ATHN, BVN, CEC, CNL, CSA, COGT, CPNO, CROX, DECK, DRYS, ERES, ESL, FLR, GPS, GXDX, GXP, HANS, INSU, TEG, LHO, LEAP, LYV, MHK, MCRI, NAVG, NVTL, NOVL, NUVA, OVTI, ORCC, PSB, RST, SD, SVNT, SBAC, SURW, SWN, TAL, UHS, YSI, VLCM, WTW, WR, INT, WYNN

The technical analysis summary for February 23 is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Wednesday Schedule:

(times are US ET)

10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify before House Financial Services Committee

10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner to testify before House Budget Committee

10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

10:00 Jan New Home Sales (last 342K, m/m -7.6%), Mexico Q4 GDP

13:00 Treasury’s $45B 5-yr note auction

Earnings

Before the Open: AER, ALD, AFAM, AMT, AAWW, CFL, GTLS, CHS, CLH, CLWR, COT, DXYN, DLTR, RRD, EV, FSRV, FTR, GRMN, GEL, WOLF, HPT, VTIV, SJM, JMP, LXP, GAS, PRX, PQ, SKS, SJI, SYNO, TFX, TRI, TJX, TOL, RIG, TA, TSL, VPHM

After the Close: TDSC, ANW, ALNY, AEL, AMSG, AVGO, BIO, BBI, BDN, BEXP, CWT, CBOU, TAST, CDCS, CHDN, CIR, CXO, CSGP, DGI, DCI, DRCO, EXM, ESRX, FCH, FLS, GNK, GMR, ROCK, GLBL, GDP, GVA, GEF, HCN, HEI, HLX, IDCC, KNDL, LTD, LAD, MANT, NTES, PPO, PRA, RA, RJET, CRM, SENO, SCI, SMSI, STNR, SPN, TLGD, TQNT, TRLG, TYL, WRI, WLL

The latest analysis is available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Tuesday Schedule:

(times are US ET)

09:00 Dec S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 146.3), Dec S&P/CS Composite-20 (last -5.3%)

10:00 Feb Consumer Confidence (last 55.9), Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing (last -2)

13:00 Treasury’s $44B 2-yr note auction

04:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

17:05 Fed’s Bullard to speak on regulatory reform

Earnings:

Before the Open: ACOR, AMED, ASTE, BKS, BBG, BPHX, CDI, CRDN, CKP, CBRL, DAKT, DNR, DSX, EE, SSP, EXPD, FSS, GTI, HSII, HSIC, HD, HRP, HURN, ICON, IDA, IDC, IPGP, ISLE, KNOL, LIZ, M, MHS, MDT, MINI, NM, ODP, HK, RDN, SAFM, SHLD, SAH, JOE, TGT, THC, TNC, UNT, VNO, WAB, WPI, WLK

After the Close: ACAS, ARP, ARI, ADSK, AXTI, BAS, BGCP, BMRN, BCSI, CHSI, CENX, CQB, CPTS, TRAK, DM, DWA, DUF, DY, EDR, EPIQ, XCO, FR, GCA, GTEC, HNSN, HLF, HT, HTZ, ISTA, KALU, LLNW, NU, ONXX, OEH, ORA, OSIP, PZZA, PLLL, PGI, PSYS, RADS, RRC, SRSL, STEC, SGY, SHO, TX, VRGY, WSII, GB

The weekend technical analysis summary is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Monday Schedule:

(times are US ET)

10:00 Jan Chicago Fed Activity (last -0.61)

10:30 Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 8.3%)

11:00 Fed’s Yellen speaks on US economy

13:00 Treasury’s $8B 30-yr TIPS auction

Earnings

Before the Open: COG, CPB, CEG, CEP, ENDP, GEO, LECO, LOW, MDAS, OIS, ORBK, PWR, VCI, VRX

After the Close: APEI, BRCD, CBI, CBR, CTV, CVA, DTE, DTSI, DCO, ECHO, EXAC, EXR, FST, HMA, HR, HLS, IPCM, KND, MELI, NATL, NDSN, JWN, OKE, OKS, OWW, RSH, SM, TTEC, TXRH, XNPT

The technical analysis summary for February 18th is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Friday Schedule:

(all times are US ET)

08:00 Fed’s Dudley to speak

08:30 Jan CPI (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.7%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.8%), Jan CPI Core Index SA (last 220.774)

Earnings

Before the Open: AMWD, AGP, BRC, BAM, HMSY, HUN, IBI, JCP, LPNT, PAG, PCG, PNW, SHPGY, SRT

The latest market summary video is available on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Wednesday Schedule:

08:30 Jan Import Price Index (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 8.6%), Jan Housing Starts (last 557K), Jan Building Permits (last 653K), Canada Dec Wholesale Sales

09:15 Jan Industrial Production (last 0.6%), Jan Capacity Utilization (last 72%)

14:00 FOMC minutes; Jan Monthly Budget Statement (last -$63.5B)

16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Earnings

Before the Open: AUXL, BW, XEC, DE, DVN, DTG, ENZN, EEFT, FELE, FNDT, GENZ, HGRD, HL, HST, IAG, ITRN, KOP, MSO, NEWS, NICE, OMX, OC, PFCB, ROC, SBGI, SSYS, VSI, WSO

After the Close: AEA, AAP, AEM, ADI, AMAT, CAR, BEAT, CECO, CRA, CHK, CLF, CYH, CYBX, DENN, DYP, ENH, FRT, GUID, HPQ, IPHS, IRBT, ITRI, KEG, KGC, KRG, LVS, LOGM, NHP, NCIT, NTAP, NHWK, NVDA, OII, ODSY, ORLY, OFIX, PEET, PTP, PCLN, STR, SKX, SNPS, TEX, TRMA, TRN, UNTD, VTAL

Market summary for February 15 is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Tuesday Schedule:

08:30 Feb Empire Manufacturing (last 15.92)

09:00 Dec Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $126.8B), Dec Total Net TIC Flows (last $26.6B)

12:00 Fed’s Hoenig speaks on budget policy

12:45 Fed’s Kocherlakota to speak on the economic outlook

13:00 Feb NAHB Housing Index (last 15)

14:00 Jan Monthly Budget Statement (last -$63.5B)

ABC Consumer Confidence (last -48)

Earnings

Before the Open: ANF, AEIS, AGAM, CPLA, CBZ, CF, DGIT, DW, FOSL, GPC, KFT, MRK, TNDM, PDC, Q, SRI, TEVA, UTHR, VAL

After the Close: AAN, ACC, AMMD, CRAY, FTI, GIVN, GLBC, HWAY, INWK, JAH, LZB, XPRT, MASI, MIG, MRH, NBR, NFX, PACR, RAX, RRR, SDXC, VCLK, WTS, WFMI, WINN

Market summary video is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Friday Schedule:

09:55 February preliminary University of Michigan confidence (last 74.4)

Earnings

Before the Open: ALE, HCP, IR, PAS, UPL

After the Close: DUK