Rebel Traders - Stock Market and Economic Analysis

Illinois is technically insolvent…

Illinois appears to meet classic definitions of insolvency: Its liabilities far exceed its assets, and it’s not generating enough cash to pay its bills. Private companies in similar circumstances often shut down or file for bankruptcy protection.

"I would describe bankruptcy as the inability to pay one’s bills," says Jim Nowlan, senior fellow at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs. "We’re close to de facto bankruptcy, if not de jure bankruptcy." […]

[…] While Illinois doesn’t have the option of shutting its doors or shedding debts in a bankruptcy reorganization, it seems powerless to avert the practical equivalent. Despite a budget shortfall estimated to be as high as $5.7 billion, state officials haven’t shown the political will to either raise taxes or cut spending sufficiently to close the gap.

As a result, fiscal paralysis is spreading through state government. Unpaid bills to suppliers are piling up. State employees, even legislators, are forced to pay their medical bills upfront because some doctors are tired of waiting to be paid by the state. The University of Illinois, owed $400 million, recently instituted furloughs, and there are fears it may not make payroll in March if the shortfall continues.

Without quick corrective action or a sharp economic upturn, Illinois is headed toward a governmental collapse. At some point, unpaid vendors will stop bidding on state contracts, investors will refuse to buy Illinois bonds and state employees will get paid in scrip, as California did last year.

"The crisis will come when you see state institutions shutting down because they can’t pay their employees," says David Merriman, head of the economics department at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

A record $5.1 billion in state bills was past due at yearend, almost doubling to 92 days from 48 days a year earlier the average amount of time it takes the state to pay vendors such as doctors, hospitals, non-profit service providers and other contractors. (source: Chicago Business)

What happens when state budgets are broke? Only one of two things can happen, cut services and employees or raise taxes. Anyone care to guess which way Illinois will go?

In my own state of New Jersey, Governor Christie takes over the helm from Governor Corzine tomorrow. First order of business will be the budget. New Jersey has serious problems as well and expectations are for deep cuts across the board. But I won’t rule out tax hikes down the road either.

Stay tuned, the budget problems facing the states is just beginning.