Today’s leader in the Dow 30 was IBM. Tomorrow it could be the biggest loser.
IBM announced Q1 2010 earnings after the markets closed this afternoon.
International Business Machines Corp Reports Q1 $1.97 v $1.93e, R$22.9B v $22.8Be
- Guides FY10 EPS at least $11.20 v $11.12e
- Q1 gross margin 43.6% v 48.3% q/q, v 43.4% y/y
- Q1 global business services gross margin: 27.3% v 26.5% y/y
- Q1 software gross margin: 84.6% v 84.2% y/y
- Q1 global services revenue +4% y/y
- Q1 software revenue +11% (+5% adjusting for currency) to $5B
- Q1 Americas revenue +2% (flat adjusting for currency) to $9.5B
- Q1 Websphere revenue +13% y/y
- Q1 services backlog +6.3% y/y and -2.2% q/q to $134B
Looks great, on the surface that is. The problem is, and why IBM is selling down in after hours, is that the gross margins are contracting and the services backlog actually declined from last quarter and American revenue show flat to little growth.
Backlog is essentially “booked business”. If a companies backlog of work declines than it means that future revenues will be lower as there is less work in the pipeline. And it is the services division that is a big revenue source for IBM.
It is very interesting how IBM can raise forward guidance, albeit slightly, with a drop in q/q backlog.
With the drop in gross margins, this suggests that IBM is sacrificing profit in order meet the numbers. A little like stretching the soup by adding more water.
As stated above, the after hours reaction to IBM’s earnings is poor.
Unless IBM says something in the conference call that is very bullish, the action in the afterhours trading suggest further weakness for IBM ahead.

