Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

Weekly jobless claims:

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 608K V 604KE;

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 6.687M V 6.840ME

Prior Jobless Claims revised from 601K to 605K
Prior Continuing Claims revised from 6.816M to 6.835M

Pre market chart update:

The weekly jobless claims came in at yet another record level.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 667,000  (Highest initial claims since Oct 1982)

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5,112,000 (Highest Continuing claims on record)

The weekly jobless claims (individuals applying for unemployment insurance for the first time) continues to rise. Continuing claims is now nearly 5 million people.

Another metric used to gauge the unemployment situation is the 4 week moving average applied to the continuing claims data. Using this moving average we can determine the rate of deterioration. And using this measurement technique the amount of people going back to the unemployment line week after week has escalated to another record high, surpassing the rate of increase of the 1982 recession.

INITIAL WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS: 627,000

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4,987,000 – this highest continuing claims on record.

Prior jobless claims revised from 623K to 627K
Prior Continuing Claims revised from 4.810M to 4.817M

The number of people lining up for unemployment benefits continues to rise. These numbers are not good.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 623,000

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4,810,000

Prior jobless claims revised from 626,000 to 631,000 -  the highest since the week ending Oct. 30, 1982.

The weekly jobless claims (the number of people applying for unemployment insurance) continues to rise at an accelerated rate.

Initial Jobless Claims: 626,000

Continuing Claims: 4,788,000

Retails sales (same store sales) data arriving over the news wires here this morning have been for the most part horrible.

Pre market S&P 500 futures have declined significantly on the news of the rising jobless claims. As discussed in the technical analysis video last night I am watching 820 as a support level. Futures have fallen to that level in the pre market.

S&P 500 Futures - Overnight and Pre Market

Recap of support / resistance levels to watch today:

Support:

820

815

810

Resistance:

823 (overnight base)

828-830

835

840

850-855

How is that for a headline! Well that headline is a preview of an article that I will post over the weekend. I started writing it this morning and I expect to have it completed this weekend. If you are the CEO of a bank or investment firm then you will not like what I’m writing.

Jobless claims continues to accelerate as evidenced by the data released this morning.

(Click on image for a sharper view)

Weekly Jobless Claims (Courtesy of Economagic.com)

Every day brings more announcements of companies cutting employment levels, and in many instances the number of job cuts is significant. Companies do not cut their employment levels unless they actually foresee a continued decline in future demand for their products or services. I am expecting to see the U.S. unemployment rate reach 9.0% in the coming months, and 11% would not surprise me. If we use what is called the U-6 data I expect that to reach nearly 20%.

(read more…)

Continuing deterioration in both…

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 588K V 575K expected

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.776M V 4.620M Expected

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DECEMBER DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -2.6% V -2.0%E;

DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: -3.6% V -2.7%E-

Prior Durables revised from -1.5 to -3.7% (2nd revision)
- Prior Durables Ex Transportation revised from +0.6% to -1.7% (2nd revision)

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A surprise announcement from Microsoft (MSFT) who was originally scheduled to release earnings after the close today.

Microsoft (MSFT):

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 524K V 503KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.497M V 4.611ME
- Prior jobless claims revised from 467K to 470K

The first full week of January shows the weekly jobless claims is returning to its dismal trend.

JP Morgan (JPM) reported early this morning and it was a wash. They benefited on the bottom line with some carry over reserve benefits from Washington Mutual. Other than that JP Morgan saw losses in the credit card division where they were a profit just 3 months ago. The JPM report had little impact on the pre market futures with their report being a ‘wash’.

Weakness in the financial sector continues with Citigroup down significantly yet again. S&P 500 futures have been on a wild ride in the pre market and are now showing signs of weakening further. Still too early to gauge any trend for today.

S&P 500 Futures - Pre Market - 5 Minute Scale

Santa has a LOT of work to do in today’s shortened trading day if he is to come through. The S&P 500 chart posted last night remains the one to watch for the short term support/resistance levels.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 586K CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.37M V 4.410ME
This is the highest Initial Claims since 1982 recession, a 26 year high

NOVEMBER DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.0% V -3.0%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: 1.2% V -3.0%E
- Prior Durables revised from prior revision of -6.9% to -8.4%
- Prior Durables Ex Transportation revised from prior revision of -5.4% to  -6.8%

NOVEMBER PCE CORE M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%E; PCE CORE Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.0%E; PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.5%E
- Prior PCE Core year over year revised from 2.1% to 2.0%

Economic data this morning still says ‘Bah Humbug’ on the economy. Remember that the US markets close today at 1:00pm (US EST)

Time for the weekly jobless claims numbers…

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 554K V 558KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.384M V 4.375ME

- prior jobless claims revised from 573K to 575K
- prior continuing claims revised from 4.429M to 4.431M

Federal Express (FDX) report:

REPORTS Q2 $1.58 V $1.57E, R $9.54B V $9.87BE; CUTS EXECUTIVE SALARIES, IMPOSES HIRING FREEZE, CUTS JOBS AT FEDEX FREIGHT AND FEDEX OFFICE
- FedEx will Not provide third quarter guidance due to significant economic uncertainty and the difficulty in forecasting the impact of recently acquired DHL customers
- Reaffirms FY09 EPS $3.50-4.75 v $4.15e (as given on 12/08)

- Fedex Express Segment Operating Margin 8.9% v 8.8% y/y
- Fedex Ground Segment Operating Margin 11.9% v 10.2% y/y
- Fedex Freight Segment Operating Margin 2.7% v 6.4% y/y

- Base salary decreases, effective January 1, 2009:
- 20% reduction for FedEx Corp. CEO Frederick W. Smith
- 7.5%-10.0% reduction for other senior FedEx executives
- 5.0% reduction for remaining U.S. salaried exempt personnel
- Elimination of calendar 2009 merit-based salary increases for U.S.salaried exempt personnel
- Suspension of 401(k) company matching contributions for a minimum of one year, effective February 1, 2009

December 11, 2008 8:30AM

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 573K V 525KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.429M V 4.100ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised from 509K to 515K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised from 4.087M to 4.091M

Weekly jobless claims is a 26 year high