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JOSB – Update

July 10, 2007 By Chuck

Yesterday JOSB reached my buy point. But I waited before establishing my position because the buy point was taking place at the time the broad markets were getting “nervous”. Like a good baseball player he waits for the right pitch to take the home run swing.

JOSB is still a good swing trade potential and my adjusted entry points are:

1/2 on the move over $43.40
1/2 on the move over 46.25

What this does is gets us in at the lower price (once we see additional commitment from buyers) and adds to our position once it turns into a rally (the move over $46.25). Remember swing trading is all about precise timing and waiting for the right pitch. A good swing trade can make big gains in a few days or they work out over a couple months. In either case our goal is to capitalize on the chart setups and let them play out. And all the time keeping our capital protected.

Someone on CNBC this morning (missed his name) said “Preservation of capital is job 1, appreciation of capital is job 2″. That is the absolute truth and the only way to survive the markets.

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The day that was – July 9th 2007

July 9, 2007 By Chuck
dentist The day that was July 9th 2007 You know how many people hate going to the dentist, they worry about going and have a bit of apprehension all the way to the door of the dentist office. Well the market action today reminded me of just that type of action. All day the market was trading like it was afraid of going somewhere. And one look at the charts it is easy to see where it was afraid to go. We were getting close to the top of our trading ranges again. And the market was apprehensive about it. Another way of thinking about today’s market action was how you feel when you walk down a dark and unknown street at night alone, a bit of looking over your shoulder every minute. And the market did that all day.
There was some news today that under normal conditions would send the bulls on a rampage. Bond yields pulled back and oil also came down some today. There was some good corporate activity today and overall the analysts were bullish. But all of that did not help the market, it still kept looking over the shoulder every minute and just would not move freely.

AMX+chart+7 9 07 The day that was July 9th 2007One of the RebelTrader portfolio holdings had some news today during the lunch hour which was the Mexican Government is looking into an anti-trust suit against some companies, and AMX was one of those named. While the news may end up being a mute point and have no affect in the long run a swing trader needs to always protect their capital. In light of that news I posted that I was going to change the stop loss point for AMX in order to protect capital. I raised the stop loss to $23.90. At that level it would give AMX a fair chance to stay alive while at the same time it would protect from a loss. And by the end of the day AMX had hit the stop point and my trade was closed automatically. See this simple chart from today to see how the price started to dive on the news.

After the close of the market Alcoa (AA) reported their earnings. While the numbers were about as expected the market was hoping for tiny bit more. In after hours AA was trading down to $41.90. So far it does not seem to be weighing on the other companies in the metals sector but tomorrow will be a better indication if there is an impact on the sector.

JOSB reached the buy point that I have noted on the chart in the public chart list. But the buy point was reached at about the same time the market started acting “nervous”. So I am going to wait until I see how the markets act tomorrow. If the markets act well tomorrow and JOSB continues going up then I’ll consider taking a position. 23257704 The day that was July 9th 2007

Remember, in swing trading we always want to get in close to the buy point but it is not the end of the world if we don’t. We never chase a stock to get a position, but we can certainly get on board at the next train station. If a stock ever gets away from us don’t worry, there will be many other plays that will come along the track.

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JOSB

July 9, 2007 By Chuck

JOSB has reached the buy point. But I am going to wait until I see how this closes. Market is too shaky today in my view. If JOSB closes over $43.40 then I will look to enter a position tomorrow based on how it trades at the open.

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7-1-07 New Watch List items

July 1, 2007 By Chuck

New watch list items:

AKS (updated setup)
BVF (updated setup)
ONT
JOSB
NGA
GRP
WDC

AKS and BVF are from the previous watch list but remain possible plays, charts have been updated.

Please see the public charts list for the explanation on each item. Some of the plays have split entries (1/2 at one price and 1/2 at another price): http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2147404

In the public charts list for Rebel Traders I will use the following format in the title of each stock:

Any chart preceded with ### is an index.
Any chart preceded with ## is a current open trade I am in.
Any chart preceded with # is a watch list item

With the events over the past two days in the United Kingdom we have to see how this will affect the markets. Because we are currently in a trading range in the major indices this may prolong this type of trading. We have to see.

You will notice that some of the new charts in the watch list are weekly charts instead of a daily chart. It is important to remember that all good traders will always check backwards to get the big picture of support and resistance levels. Looking at a daily chart for the past few months may give some clues about the current stock health but one always needs to look back in time much more to see what obstacles the stock will still need to challenge. Always study your own stock plays by looking at weekly and even monthly charts to get the big picture. Even swing traders need to do this. Just because we may hold a stock for a few days up to a few months does not mean we only need to concern ourselves with the daily charts. On the contrary, for us to benefit the most and have the best picks we need to see back in time where major events (support and resistance) are at.

More on this topic (What's this?)
AK Steel’s (AKS) Last Ditch Effort (The Wild Investor, 6/22/10)
Biovail Plans to Pursue Lawsuit Against Hedge Funds (Hedge Fund Blogs From HedgeCo.Net, 9/11/07)
The Oxen Report: Is It Just Me or Is This Market Starting to Look Toppy? (Phil’s Stock World - Members S..., 7/27/10)
Read more on Biovail, AK Steel Holding at Wikinvest
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