Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

The big winner so far today in the rebeltrader portfolio is ONT. It is up over 10% today so far. A good bounce play this has become. That was why I changed the setup conditions for ONT from the original game plan. When I identified the pullback to a key level the play changed to a buy on signs of a bounce (remember, we don’t buy on the way down, we buy after it hit then catch it as it comes back up).

The metals sector is good today and AKS is slowly making upward movement. Oil Services GRP also doing nicely again today, BIG is another big winner today as the retail sector is hot today.

The only bad play in the book right now is JSDA. Has not been able to keep itself above water as the word of the CEO’s conversation on CNBC has made the rounds and has let the shorts take over control for now. Too bad, without the CEO this could have been a good trend reversal play. It still might but I won’t leave my money in there and risk it. Took my 1/2 position off the table when it hit the stop at $16.90.

The sectors that are doing bad today are biotech & restaurants.

Now, the biggest news of all is that the DJIA has broken out of the trading range (see the DJIA chart on my public chart list: Public charts.) Right now at this time we are above the top of the trading range. If we close above that trading range then we are one step away from returning to a bull mode.

Today AKS is up nicely on the strong metals sector, NTGR is up on a breakout into new highs, ONT is accumulating here and is ticking up ever so slowly but looking good so far, BIG is still above the original buy point and is still collecting large buys going through the tape, GRP is also trading up and I am still bullish on the oil services sector, WDC is also holding on even after the big fall yesterday. The tech sector is doing fairly well considering the overall bearish worries of the markets right now.

Only holding not doing well this morning is JSDA. Down 3.7% on what I can assume is a lack of confidence in the company from comments the CEO made on CNBC last night. I was prepared to sell early and not wait for the stop loss point if I saw any panic selling on JSDA. It is down but I don’t see any panic, and it is holding above the stop loss point through the morning. So I am giving it a chance.

An email from a subscriber asked why I was so concerned with $17.00. Why I was watching that price level was due to the gap up that took place back in March of this year. During that time Jones Soda broke out on high volume. The high volume is an indicator of a significant increase in money coming into JSDA. And in that increased money was many new investors.

Broad market is still “sluggish”. Keep in mind that the DOW is coming close to resistance again. see the DOW chart in the public charts list:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2147404

Today kicks off the earnings period. If we can get some big names to report better than expected numbers this may give us the extra boost we need to climb above our trading range and get the markets moving again.

JSDA is above $17.00 but I am not going to do anything with it until I see it “close” above that point.

I like Netgear (NTGR) and may take a 1/3 position on the move above today’s resistance which is $38.56. If it moves up beyond that point I will scale in with a 1/3. I’m being a little extra cautious only because the broad markets seem to be undecided here. And the fact that we are getting close to resistance again on the indices.

In pre market trading JSDA had run up a bit but has now pulled back again in pre market. JSDA struggles to keep it’s gains.

I will still watch it to see if the health of it looks good enough to begin an entry with a 1/3 position.

Asian stocks pick up steam, the Nikkei 255 rallies to a 7 year high. European markets up.

Analyst ‘ThinkEquity’ raises their price target for Google (GOOG) to $700.00.

I’m watching JSDA. After pulling back most of its gains on Friday on a steady drop all day Friday it is trading up again in pre market. $17.00 is a key pivot point for JSDA. A close above that point will add confidence that JSDA is reversing the trend. I may take a 1/3 position in JSDA today, but I will watch the trading pattern before I decide. JSDA so far has not shown a commitment to continue the rally. The trading on Friday was a huge signal of a possible failed rally. But today it looks as if it will make another try.

I’m seeing some potential for strength in the metals sector today. May have a boost for our open position AKS. Also seeing strength this morning in solar stocks. The solar plays have been volatile, fast runs then hard stops and some wild pullbacks.

The week ahead:

• Monday: 10 year TIPS data (description of TIPS)
• Tuesday: Redbook, Consumer credit
• Wednesday: Wholesale inventories, Crude inventories
• Thursday: Initial claims, Trade balance, Monthly budget statement
• Friday: Export/Import price data, Retail sales, business inventories

On Tuesday Fed Chairman will be speaking about inflation in Massachusetts, on Wednesday Fed reserve governor Kevin Walsh will testify before the House financial Services Committee on hedge funds and systematic risk.

Futures are essentially flat, oil has dropped some but is still above $72. Note: If oil moves to $75 then we will start seeing more pullbacks in many sectors.

“May the bulls be with you”

The day started out with futures basically flat. Then the unemployment data was released and there were no surprises. It came in as expected. At first the market reacted a bit negative to the numbers. I believe for the most part the data was priced in the markets already.

Then by about 10am the mood turned positive and we had a smooth, somewhat uneventful day of lower than normal volume buying. Best sectors today were Gold,Coal,Housing (hard to believe!), Retail,Silver,Energy,Computer hardware,Internet,Semis,Steel, and Brokers

The ones that did poorly: Paper, Telecom, Biotech,Utilities,computer software

Rebeltrader plays did well today, all posting a move up except for AKS which was ended the day flat but still a stock I am bullish on. The speculative play on WWAT shook me out but I am going back in when the buy point is reached again. I stand committed that WWAT has some large gains possible once the volatility in it settles down. As stated in the previous posts on WWAT my plan is to scale into it (scaling into a trade further reduces your risk) as you only use a small piece of your swing trade slot funds to “test the water” and establish a position at the entry price. Then we wait, we wait for confirmation that the buyers will out number the sellers wanting to take profit on the news that there was a huge insider buy of the stock. You must keep in mind that the small and micro cap stocks there is some violent moves in the price (up or down). And a small move equals a large percentage due to the low price of the stock. So it is subject to more profit taking whenever there is news or anything that suggests the company is doing well causing the price to advance.

But WWAT has some longer term swing potential. We got thrown off the bull but this is one I am going to wrestle again.

Some were pointing out that Jones Soda (JSDA) was doing well coming off of a down trend. The chart established that there are two important resistance levels that the price has to close above (key word here is close, it has to have closed above $17.00 to show confirmation that the pattern was holding. The massive sell off today showed the pattern is not holding and not ready yet) first before we can consider it for a swing trade. And today JSDA failed that test again by not closing above a key milestone point. JSDA will become a watch list item for the RebelTrader portfolio and will have strict entry points. So far that point has not been reached. Potential swing trades must have unique chart conditions which have to be met. A sequence of events and a confirmation that it is ready to grab on the move. Those conditions have not occurred yet. But when they do we will trade it methodically and by the chart.

Watch the site over the weekend for some new watch list items and some more memebr requested charts.

Have a great weekend to all.

JSDA’s big pop is turning into poop like I said.

One should never jump onto a ship that is revving up it’s engines and leaving port at a hig speed. There is no need to chase it and get caught up in the excitement of the big move up yesterday and then this morning again. Without waiting and having patience you may be just getting on the USS Minnow for a 3 hour tour that ends on a deserted island!

JSDA is tanking here. Don’t know if it will hold but may end in the red. This is why I did not take an entry. Will watch for a setup that is safe. Have a plan and trade the plan. And there is no plan yet for JSDA.

Someone shook up the bottle enough for the intraday price movement to move it above resistance on the 25% short covering. If JSDA can hold on to this momentum and can close above $17.00 then this will be a setup in the making for a longer term swing trade. A 7% one day gain will be nothing compared to a many week swing trade that reverses this trend and brings JSDA back into an up trend for gains in the double digits.

Beware of panic short covering. If the company is still “out of flavor” with the big money then the one day pop turns into a many day poop. That is why we establish a setup to determine the longer term movements.

JSDA has pre market trading activity. Once again it has not been able to break resistance and the BxA has been pulling back.

For JSDA to be considered a possible swing trade going forward it must close above $17.00. Then we will set some guidelines for an entry after that. But right now resistance is keeping Jones Soda (JSDA) flat… no fizz yet.