Rebel Traders - Stock Market and Economic Analysis

The technical analysis summary for Thursday evening, February 25th is now available on the ‘market videos’ page.

Friday Schedule:

(all times are US ET)

08:30 Preliminary Q4 GDP q/q (last 5.7%), Q4 GDP Price Index (last 0.6%), Q4 Personal Consumption (last 2.0%), Q4 Core PCE q/q (last 1.4%)

09:45 Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (last 61.5)

09:55 Feb Final University of Michigan Confidence (last 73.7)

10:00 Jan Existing Home Sales (last 5.45M, m/m -16.7%), Feb NAPM-Milwaukee (last 56)

10:45 Fed’s Dudley and Kocherlakota to speak at US Monetary Policy Forum

13:30 Fed’s Tarullo, Evans to speak at US Monetary Policy Forum

Earnings

Before the Open: CAS, BIOS, CNP, DRH, FCN, ZINC, IPG, JRCC, MGLN, MCCC, MPR, MSA, MIR, NWN, POM, SUSS, TTI, TREX

No time for the video this evening folks, so I’ll have to do a quick written analysis here for you.

On Wednesday the S&P 500 E-Mini’s retraced back to the area around 1105 which I highlighted in the February 23rd video. That resistance level held during the Wednesday retracement upward.

At this time the futures have declined quite significantly on the heels of more warnings coming in regarding Greece, and some new concerns over the China housing market.

Moody’s: Greece fiscal position is unchanged. Reiterates it may cut sovereign rating further if Greece deviates from fiscal reform — Note that Greece’s sovereign debt carries an A2 rating at Moody’s, two notches above the equivalent ratings at Fitch and S&P (BBB+). If Moody’s were to recalibrate its rating in line with its peers, it would render Greece’s sovereign debt ineligible for ECB repo operations when collateral criteria reverts to the normal minimum thresholds (A3/A- or above) at the end of 2010.

On the back of the growing concerns over Greece the Euro/USD is moving downward, and as expected, the US dollar futures are moving upward, currently sitting at 81.13 at the time of this writing. The S&P futures are down nearly 8 points at this time.

The chart shown below is that of the S&P 500 E-mini futures (hourly scale). Observe the white channel lines that I have discussed over the past week in the market videos. On Tuesday the E-mini’s tested the lower channel twice, one of those occurrences taking place in the overnight session. At this time the futures are once again testing the lower channel boundary. This is a critical spot for the market. If the futures break below the channel on this hourly chart, then our first support level is a pivot point, and that level is 1088.

(click image for full size)

All eyes are on the lower channel line. A failure to bounce here would be bearish, a break below the 1088 level would be very bearish for the near term. If the channel holds, and the market bounces from here, then I will be looking at the area of 1105 to 1108 for the first resistance level. That is how the charts look at this time.

Sorry for no video this evening folks. I hope this quick analysis will suffice until the Thursday evening video update.

Thursday Schedule:

(all times are US ET)

08:30 Jan Durable Goods Orders (last 1.0%, ex-transport 1.4%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 473K), Continuing Claims (last 4.563M)

09:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify before Senate Banking Committee

10:00 Dec House Price Index (last 0.7%)

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

13:00 Treasury’s $32B 7-yr note auction

13:15 Fed’s Bullard to speak on US economic outlook

Earnings

Before the Open: ACIW, CRMT, ANSS, WTR, ARCC, ARIA, ABG, BRY, BVF, CSE, CTL, CDE, CCOI, CLR, DT, DLR, DPS, DYN, EMCI, EME, ESV, EXH, FAF, FIG, FWLT, FTO, GLS, GNA, GLF, HNZ, HOC, H, ICLR, IRM, KDN, KBR, KG, KSS, LAMP, LINE, LKQX, MIC, MGA, PCS, MYL, NEM, NIHD, NRF, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, PKD, PXP, TUTR, POR, RRI, REV, SWY, SIRI, SMBL, FIRE, SPW, STXS, SHOO, SCMR, SMA, TTES, TDS, SNAK, THI, TRW, USM, VIT, WTI

After the Close: AGO, ATHN, BVN, CEC, CNL, CSA, COGT, CPNO, CROX, DECK, DRYS, ERES, ESL, FLR, GPS, GXDX, GXP, HANS, INSU, TEG, LHO, LEAP, LYV, MHK, MCRI, NAVG, NVTL, NOVL, NUVA, OVTI, ORCC, PSB, RST, SD, SVNT, SBAC, SURW, SWN, TAL, UHS, YSI, VLCM, WTW, WR, INT, WYNN

The technical analysis summary for February 23 is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Wednesday Schedule:

(times are US ET)

10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify before House Financial Services Committee

10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner to testify before House Budget Committee

10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

10:00 Jan New Home Sales (last 342K, m/m -7.6%), Mexico Q4 GDP

13:00 Treasury’s $45B 5-yr note auction

Earnings

Before the Open: AER, ALD, AFAM, AMT, AAWW, CFL, GTLS, CHS, CLH, CLWR, COT, DXYN, DLTR, RRD, EV, FSRV, FTR, GRMN, GEL, WOLF, HPT, VTIV, SJM, JMP, LXP, GAS, PRX, PQ, SKS, SJI, SYNO, TFX, TRI, TJX, TOL, RIG, TA, TSL, VPHM

After the Close: TDSC, ANW, ALNY, AEL, AMSG, AVGO, BIO, BBI, BDN, BEXP, CWT, CBOU, TAST, CDCS, CHDN, CIR, CXO, CSGP, DGI, DCI, DRCO, EXM, ESRX, FCH, FLS, GNK, GMR, ROCK, GLBL, GDP, GVA, GEF, HCN, HEI, HLX, IDCC, KNDL, LTD, LAD, MANT, NTES, PPO, PRA, RA, RJET, CRM, SENO, SCI, SMSI, STNR, SPN, TLGD, TQNT, TRLG, TYL, WRI, WLL

The latest analysis is available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Tuesday Schedule:

(times are US ET)

09:00 Dec S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 146.3), Dec S&P/CS Composite-20 (last -5.3%)

10:00 Feb Consumer Confidence (last 55.9), Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing (last -2)

13:00 Treasury’s $44B 2-yr note auction

04:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

17:05 Fed’s Bullard to speak on regulatory reform

Earnings:

Before the Open: ACOR, AMED, ASTE, BKS, BBG, BPHX, CDI, CRDN, CKP, CBRL, DAKT, DNR, DSX, EE, SSP, EXPD, FSS, GTI, HSII, HSIC, HD, HRP, HURN, ICON, IDA, IDC, IPGP, ISLE, KNOL, LIZ, M, MHS, MDT, MINI, NM, ODP, HK, RDN, SAFM, SHLD, SAH, JOE, TGT, THC, TNC, UNT, VNO, WAB, WPI, WLK

After the Close: ACAS, ARP, ARI, ADSK, AXTI, BAS, BGCP, BMRN, BCSI, CHSI, CENX, CQB, CPTS, TRAK, DM, DWA, DUF, DY, EDR, EPIQ, XCO, FR, GCA, GTEC, HNSN, HLF, HT, HTZ, ISTA, KALU, LLNW, NU, ONXX, OEH, ORA, OSIP, PZZA, PLLL, PGI, PSYS, RADS, RRC, SRSL, STEC, SGY, SHO, TX, VRGY, WSII, GB

The weekend technical analysis summary is now available for viewing on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Monday Schedule:

(times are US ET)

10:00 Jan Chicago Fed Activity (last -0.61)

10:30 Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 8.3%)

11:00 Fed’s Yellen speaks on US economy

13:00 Treasury’s $8B 30-yr TIPS auction

Earnings

Before the Open: COG, CPB, CEG, CEP, ENDP, GEO, LECO, LOW, MDAS, OIS, ORBK, PWR, VCI, VRX

After the Close: APEI, BRCD, CBI, CBR, CTV, CVA, DTE, DTSI, DCO, ECHO, EXAC, EXR, FST, HMA, HR, HLS, IPCM, KND, MELI, NATL, NDSN, JWN, OKE, OKS, OWW, RSH, SM, TTEC, TXRH, XNPT

The latest market summary video is available on the ‘market update videos’ page.

Wednesday Schedule:

08:30 Jan Import Price Index (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 8.6%), Jan Housing Starts (last 557K), Jan Building Permits (last 653K), Canada Dec Wholesale Sales

09:15 Jan Industrial Production (last 0.6%), Jan Capacity Utilization (last 72%)

14:00 FOMC minutes; Jan Monthly Budget Statement (last -$63.5B)

16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

Earnings

Before the Open: AUXL, BW, XEC, DE, DVN, DTG, ENZN, EEFT, FELE, FNDT, GENZ, HGRD, HL, HST, IAG, ITRN, KOP, MSO, NEWS, NICE, OMX, OC, PFCB, ROC, SBGI, SSYS, VSI, WSO

After the Close: AEA, AAP, AEM, ADI, AMAT, CAR, BEAT, CECO, CRA, CHK, CLF, CYH, CYBX, DENN, DYP, ENH, FRT, GUID, HPQ, IPHS, IRBT, ITRI, KEG, KGC, KRG, LVS, LOGM, NHP, NCIT, NTAP, NHWK, NVDA, OII, ODSY, ORLY, OFIX, PEET, PTP, PCLN, STR, SKX, SNPS, TEX, TRMA, TRN, UNTD, VTAL