New home sales over the previous 7 months have been goosed by the $8,000 tax credit, the result of pulled forward demand.
It has also been reported that in many cases the tax credit was simply being used for a down payment with no other cash out of the pocket of the buyer, bringing back the ‘no income and no chance in hell of affording the home in the long run’ scenario all over again. But, that is a subject for an article all to itself.
Now that the home purchase tax credit program expired on April 30, early indications of home sales have once again begun to contract, but that is no surprise and I have discussed that very problem last year when the program was first introduced. That is what happens when you pull forward demand with free government money.
Phoenix and Las Vegas, two U.S. markets hardest hit by foreclosures, are set to plunge as a federal tax credit for homebuying expires, according to data from real estate researcher Metrostudy.
A sample of subdivisions in both cities showed sales contracts for new homes “pulled back sharply in May and contract cancellations spiked,” Houston-based Metrostudy said […]
Not only did the tax credit pull forward genuine demand, but it dragged in with it more bad mortgages that will go bust in the months and years ahead due to the low loan to value mortgages that were issued under the combined Fannie, Freddie, FHA, and tax credit binge to write as many mortgages as possible.
The tax credit and easy terms by the GSE’s created some stabilization of home prices over the past months, however it remains my view that all it did was create a vacuum from which future home sales will not be able to climb up from. A side affect that the government may not have understood is that the [Read more...]

