Long term play.. ONT

I like the price level here for ON2 Technologies (ONT).

ONT moves wildly at times being a small cap as they are. But this price looks attractive for a long term play. Not adding this to my swing trade portfolio here. But for a multi month play I see this price as being good. Stop loss would be $1.55




The day that Was – July 17th 2007

Sub Prime made the headlines again after the market closed. It is being reported that a comment made by Bear Sterns is that two of their hedge funds with ties to the sub prime mortgage business are now essentially worthless. Reportedly now worth less than 10 cents on the dollar. I said last week that we have not heard the end of the sub prime woes and I’ll say it again here. The sub prime problem has yet to fully propagate into other areas/sectors. There will be more headlines concerning sub prime in the months to come.

The financial sector needs to be watched closely as it is a heavyweight in the markets. Where the financials go the rest of the market follows in time. We must get some good earnings reports from the big finance giants in the coming days and weeks to lift the sector. Today there was profit taking ahead of what I see to be apprehension on the part of the traders of more bad news on the financial sector front.

Today On2 Technologies (ONT) hit my stop and my trade was closed automatically. I sold my shares at $2.55. A shame too, because I am still bullish on ONT. But rules are rules, discipline in trading is the ONLY way you will survive and win the game for the long term. If you never set limits (stop loss) for your investments then you are on the road to a financial disaster, for you are relying on hope and not a plan. All winners on Wall Street will tell you the same thing, they have a plan on when they exit their trades/investments, no ifs, ands, or buts. Preservation of capital comes first.
Remember that you have to earn more gains to make up for your losses. Lets say you have a stock that you bought at $20 a share last year, and the current price is $10 a share. You have lost 50% of your money on that investment. Now in order to get your money back (break even) that stock now has to increase 100%. That is why the experts and pros always cut their losses quickly and within a set limit. It is easier to make up for the loss if your losses are kept small.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade BIG (retail sector) is lagging. But looking at the sector chart RLX+daily The day that Was   July 17th 2007I’m seeing what is looking like a bounce coming soon. So I’m still bullish on BIG as long as the sector is still bullish which it is, just in a pullback currently. The $RLX chart is telling me a rebound is near.

RebelTrader portfolio swing trade Western Digital (WDC) is in a good spot right now as that sector is in a breakout mode. Will keep DDX+july+17th+2007 The day that Was   July 17th 2007WDC for as long as I can squeeze a gain out of it. NetGear (NTGR)is also on a good run and will keep an eye on it so as to not let the gains slip away if the broad markets turn sour.

GRP, the oil service sector company is set to rebound according to the oil services sector chart. I’m watching the $OSX and I see a bounce from the moving average to be the most likely event osx+small+chart The day that Was   July 17th 2007to happen.
The remainder of this week will be wild in the markets I anticipate. Be sure to have a seat belt on! Any bad earnings reports from large companies are going to be felt in the markets more than usual.



Current open swing trades

Most of my open swing trades have opened to the upside this morning. NTGR is performing very well.

BIG has been basing around the original buy point. This stock is not catching the retail wave yet. I’m sticking with it until I see a signal that says it is not going to make it.

ONT has pulled back to the support range. Each time ONT pulls back to around the $2.60 area then some big trades go through on an uptick. Other traders are seeing this $2.60 area as a key support as well. I’m holding onto ONT

WDC is catching the beginning of a tech rally (albeit still weak). My entry on WDC could not be more perfect to take advantage of a tech rally. If Intel reports good numbers when they release their quarterly numbers then expect to see WDC and NTGR to be lifted up as well.

ONT – Update

ONT has pulled back to the support level. There are many whipsaws going on this morning in many stocks. I am not concerned with ONT’s pullback at this time. Watching the tape I see large block trades with an uptick going through so others out there are seeing this as the buying opportunity. I am holding my ONT position.

BIG – the retail sector is weak so far this morning. BIG is consolidating again just above the original buy point. Seems to be some confusion in the market as to which sectors the large money want to tackle. I watch some oil plays go from red to green and back to red again this morning. Seems as if the large money is re-adjusting their underwear to get ready for the next rally if it comes.

Mid day update

The big winner so far today in the rebeltrader portfolio is ONT. It is up over 10% today so far. A good bounce play this has become. That was why I changed the setup conditions for ONT from the original game plan. When I identified the pullback to a key level the play changed to a buy on signs of a bounce (remember, we don’t buy on the way down, we buy after it hit then catch it as it comes back up).

The metals sector is good today and AKS is slowly making upward movement. Oil Services GRP also doing nicely again today, BIG is another big winner today as the retail sector is hot today.

The only bad play in the book right now is JSDA. Has not been able to keep itself above water as the word of the CEO’s conversation on CNBC has made the rounds and has let the shorts take over control for now. Too bad, without the CEO this could have been a good trend reversal play. It still might but I won’t leave my money in there and risk it. Took my 1/2 position off the table when it hit the stop at $16.90.

The sectors that are doing bad today are biotech & restaurants.

Now, the biggest news of all is that the DJIA has broken out of the trading range (see the DJIA chart on my public chart list: Public charts.) Right now at this time we are above the top of the trading range. If we close above that trading range then we are one step away from returning to a bull mode.

ONT – added to position

Added to my ONT holding @ 2.75

Add remaining 1/3 on the move over $2.90

ONT – Update

Rebeltrader portfolio holding ONT is set to open higher. Current pre market activity has ONT up a bit. Watch for the second buy point if this trend continues after the bell.

The Day that Was – July 11th 2007

Today the market was able to recover some of its big drop from yesterday. Yesterday the big driving force that made the already nervous market take a dive was that ugly word popped up again. That word is “sub prime”. Any time the market hears that word there is a fear that runs all the way down the spine of the markets. Personally I feel the sub prime issue is still looming over the economy and it will manifest itself into other areas over time. We are not done hearing about sub prime woes.

Today the market was helped by the M/A news of Chaparral Steel being purchased by Gerdau Ameristeel Corp. That boosted the metals sector today. And the rebeltrader portfolio holding A K Steel Holding Corp (AKS) got a boost from that today as well closing up 1.78%.

Portfolio holding Grant Prideco Inc. (GRP), an oil services sector play remains in play. I am still bullish on GRP. Yesterday Motley Fool mentioned that GRP is still on their 10 highest rated stocks list per their investors subscriber base of recommendations.

Yesterday I took a position in JSDA as it was advancing throughout the day after it had closed above a key support level ($17.00). The entry price was $17.85. Today JSDA sold down to $17.07 on a CEO interview that made it through the markets as being “not so hot”. I watched the interview and while the CEO was not well spoken he did not say anything in my view that warranted a sell off. But one always has to remember the market does not care about the old saying “what have you done for me lately”, but instead wants to hear more of what are you going to do for me tomorrow. The CEO addressed that by the end of the year they would be introducing some sort of new product. For me it does not matter what the CEO says or not. I’m playing the chart. And for now $17.00 is still a support line that if there is going to be a leg up it has to start from somewhere. And $17.00 is that starting point. Every swing trade has to have a plan. You can not just buy something you hear about or see flash by on a ticker window showing a big gain. You have think like a tiger, stalking your prey. A tiger waits for the right moment to attack. JSDA was a stock that ran from $14 to as high as $19 in the span of 3 days. It was a moving target in the middle of a freeway at rush hour. Trying to rush into traffic to catch it could either get you run over or when you caught it the stock could change direction and head for the off-ramp. Smart traders will wait for a setup. The setup was the formation of a base above $17.00. That we got, we made the kill on the move up out of the base (albeit a short time frame base) and we will play it by the book. If it fails the base then this stock is not ready for prime time yet.

Discipline is always the key. Never buy any stock that is being talked about in the news blindly without looking at it carefully, plan your attack, and wait for the conditions to establish and then you have your trade. Have a plan and trade the plan.

Today I entered ALGN on a very healthy advance. The volume was good and it closed up 5.23%. Today it set a new 52wk high. I did not enter the second 1/2 of my swing trade funds to this trade yet. Although it did clear the second buy point it did it at the end of the day and by only a couple cents so I will wait until tomorrow. If you had a pre programmed trade setup to grab it at the second buy point then that is fine, you may end up with a better entry than I will when I enter my second buy.

We are still in a place I don”t like being. We are still in this sideways trading range on the major indices and it’s makes swing trading difficult. But perseverance I have and I will keep looking for good trading ideas. For those of you that email me asking me what are some good trades I can only tell you that I have a list of stocks in my office up on the wall that I like, but I am stalking them and looking for the setups to establish themselves. Over the weekend I will post a picture of the RebelTrader ‘research department’ and you will see my wall of stock plays.. LOL

I hope all my fellow Rebels had a great day and to all I wish a wonderful good night.

p.s. – Today I was contacted by Lindsay, a wonderful lady at http://www.ino.com/ asking if I would be interested in providing some guest commentaries for their site. So from time to time I will provide her with some articles that I write and she will share with me some of their content in return. Thank you Lindsay for considering my market views as worthy for your site.

Updated ONT and ALGN charts:

ONT+7 11 07 The Day that Was   July 11th 2007 ALGN+7 11 07 The Day that Was   July 11th 2007

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