Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

The financial sector finally had some upward moves. That in addition to some good earnings pre market helped the market move into the green zone today. The DOW maintained the gain for most of the day however the S&P and the Nasdaq gave up some the of gains from the peak of the day around mid day. But at least it was an up day on all three of the major indices.

Also in the pre market was the news of the merger of Transocean (RIG) and Global SantaFe (GSF). A deal worth $53 Billion.

Today was just a taste of what is yet to come this week with many companies releasing their earnings. It will indeed be a busy week with companies reporting.

RebelTrader swing trades:

FEEC closed at $1.65, which is a gain of 5.7% from the entry price just this past Friday. When FEEC moves over $1.65 I will enter the second 1/2 of my swing trade.

WWAT continues to be a good mover. Closed today at $2.45 which is 33% up from my original entry point.

WDC closed up today at $22.89 and this swing trade stands at 12.3% gain from the original entry price.

NHWK closed up today at $21.36 and this swing trade is currently a 10.1% gain from the entry price.

I closed the AKS swing trade today because earnings are due tomorrow but the main reason is that there has been some recent earnings from other companies in this sector that had bearish outlook on the metals sector. I did not want to risk holding AKS through the earnings and possibly being exposed to bearish outlook from the company. AKS was closed at a break even (less than 1.0% gain).

The Rebeltrader portfolio continues to rack up good gains. Tomorrow I will continue to work on the new watch list items and more trade ideas.

“May the Bulls be with you” (yes, I’m a Star Wars fan!)

Current Rebeltrader open trades:

AKS 4.6% gain
WDC 4.5% gain
GRP 2.3% gain
BIG 1.9% gain
ONT 1.8% gain
ALGN 1.3% gain
NTGR 0.8% gain
PDGI 0.5% gain
WWAT 0.4% gain
BVF 0.2% gain

All 10 swing trade slots are now full. No new trades (except for adding to existing trades where I am scaling in). The first swing trade to make at least 10% gain will be considered for sale to release a spot for a new trade. However, if the trade still has a technical indication for a higher move than the trade will be held longer.

Daniel..

Thank you for your compliment on the trades. To answer your questions:

AMX

• Entered on 7/3/07 @ $63.31 (1/2 position)
• Added remaining 1/2 @ $65.16 on 7/5/07
• On 7/9/07 the Mexican Government announced they wanted to crack down on large companies which they felt held a monopoly on the business. AMX was one of those companies named. Because I did not know what the reaction would be I raised the stop loss point to $63.90 (I did this because I wanted to protect the capatial put on this trade in the event there was any big selling on the news. There was and by the end of the day my stop out point was hit and the trade was closed. AMX has since recovered well but one can not predict the future of what the news impact would be so discipline always comes first over hope. I did not want to hope the stock would revover and instead stood by the discipline of protecting the capital.) Recall the chart I posted on AMX when the news was announced by the Mexican Government

GRP

• Entered on 7/6/07 @ $55.54 (1/2 position)
• The second buy point (on the move to new 52wk high) not reached yet. So the average cost on GRP remains at $55.54

WDC

• Entered on 7/3/07 @ $20.37 (1/2 position)
• Second buy point not reached yet (see chart)

NTGR

• Entered on 7/9/07 @ $ 38.61 (1/3 position)
• Added additional 1/3 on 7/11/07 @ $ 38.97
• Average cost is currently $ 38.79

WWAT

• Entered on 7/12/07 @ $1.83 (1/3 position)
• Average cost is currenly $1.83

As of the market close, July 12th, 2007 the current open trades:

WDC 4.4% gain (open)
AKS 3.8% gain (open, average cost $38.58)
ONT 3.3% gain (open, average cost $2.77)
BIG 2.9% gain (open, average cost $29.91)
GRP 2.2% gain (open)
ALGN 1.2% gain (open, average cost $25.29, multiple trades)
NTGR -0.9% loss (open, average cost $38.79
WWAT -2.2% loss (open, multiple trades)

JDSA -5.3% loss (closed today)

Multiple trades means this is the second time a trade is being attempted on that stock. The gain/loss calculation takes into account the gain or loss from both trades!). Gains/losses are calculated on the average cost where the stock play has been to scale into the trade.

Money management stems losses and keeps the winning trades in play. You do NOT have to win every trade. That is not possible by anyone. All one has to do is win more than you lose over the year and your ahead. After each trade is completed you put that cash right back into your capital for use in the swing trade methodology, increasing your buying power as time goes on. Remember, take your trading capital you set aside for swing trades and divide it up into 10 parts. And each part is what you use for one swing trade,one stock. So no more than 10 stocks will be owned at any one time.

Where you read that I scale into a trade with a 1/3 or a 1/2 that means I have taken that one 10% part and cut it into more parts. This way I enter into the trade a little at a time until the whole 10% part is loaded into the one stock. This is done to protect capital. The more the trade works the more you add until it is loaded. The scaling into a stock is even more important in times of extreme market volatility where it can change direction in a flash. Under normal conditions entering a trade is usually in 1/2’s and in some cases (depending on the situation at the time) will enter the trade with the entire 10% part all at once.

For the new members of the site please read this earlier post. Click me!

If you are new to the concept of swing trading please, I encourage you strongly to start out by paper trading and reading some books on swing trading. Never put all of your money into one trade, ever! That is financial suicide. Practice how to manage your capital and it’s 10 pieces for swing trading. Get a feel for how swing trading works and the concept of compounding your gains into the next trades.

The Rebel Traders portfolio began with the first trade on May 24th, 2007

Each trade represents 10% of the overall Rebeltrader capital account.

Risk management is to limit losses on any one position to no more than 4% (8% worst case). A loss of 4% on any one trade equals a loss of 0.6% against the total capital. This is how to successfully win in the markets. You never throw all your money into one trade. For if you did that then a 4% loss on that one trade would be 4% loss on your entire capital! By dividing up your capital into slices you reduce the risk to your capital. See my previous post on portfolio management here.

RebelTrader portfolio trades to date (some stock symbols include multiple plays, i.e.. purchased once then sold, then bought again at a later date and sold again)

The breakdown:

• ARRS 7.1% gain (closed)
• B 6.4% gain (closed)
• ARD 5.7% gain (closed) (multiple buy/sells)
• BIG 3.6% gain (open) average share purchase price=$29.91
• RGR 3.6% gain (closed)
• WDC 3.6% gain (open)
• AKS 3.1% gain (open) (multiple buy/sells)
• AMX 3.0% gain (open) average share purchase price= $64.22
• GRP 2.2% gain (open)
• ALGN 0.6% gain (closed)
• CPO -0.2% loss (closed)
• IMMU -4.0% loss (closed)
• HGRD -4.1% loss (closed)
• WWAT -4.4% loss (closed)
• MTRX -6.0%loss (closed)
• CMGI -6.3%loss (closed)

As of Market close July 6th, 2007 Rebel Trader win/loss ratio= 1.5:1

As of Market close July 6th, 2007 Rebel Trader compounded annualized performance based on trades to date and length of time each trade held= +98.3%

Here are the current standings as of the market close today:

These are positions taken based on the chart setups identified ahead of time. The charts are listed in the public charts link on the right side of this web page (near the top).

Current open positions:

AKS 6.94% Gain
ALGN 1.65% Gain
ARD 15.68% Gain
ARRS 4.74% Gain
B 8.67% Gain
CPO 1.77% Gain
HGRD 0.45% Gain
RGR 5.94% Gain
MTRX 5.28% Gain

Closed positions:

ARD 3.80% loss
CMGI 6.5% loss
IMMU 4.0% loss

Current P/L % = 36.8 % Gain (total gains – total loses)

My trade setups have worked out as follows so far: (reference the charts in the public charts list)
Since late May Fp80 setups have provided a gain of 21.5% (total gains – total loss)

AKS – On 6/13 stock bounced up from support and became a buy at $33.00. Currently is a 6.9% gain

ALGN – Was a buy on 6/14 at $24.25. Currently is a 1% gain

AXR – No trade yet

AAPL – No trade- chart for education

ARD – First trade on 6/6 at $53.93, stopped out on 6/7 for a 3.7% loss. Second trade on 6/13 at $49.50. Currently a 7.5% gain

ARRS – Was a buy on 6/11 at $15.60. Currently is a 5.5% gain

B – Was a buy on 6/11 at $31.25. Currently is a 9.4% gain

BVF – No trade yet

CMGI – Was a buy on 6/1 at $2.55. Stopped out on a sell off with the bad earnings report. 6.5% loss (this is why you never hold a stock through earnings. But CMGI released their earnings during market hours and surprised all the holders)

CPO – Was a buy on 6/11 at $42.85. Currently a 1.2% gain

HGRD – Was a buy on 6/15 at $6.65 . Closed up on the day for with a 3% gain

IMMU – Original buy from late May and became a 10% gain on a pre market gap up on 6/4. I held and it sold off and took the 4% loss.

NTGR – No trade yet

NTY – No trade yet (but watch on Monday.. is close to maybe being a trade)

MTRX – No trade yet

RGR – Was a buy on 6/1. Currently is a 4.2% gain

SYNT – No trade yet