Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

As discussed in the last market video, the S&P 500 E-mini futures broke below a trend line last Friday which was present on the hourly chart.

While the U.S. markets were closed today, futures trading continued for part of the day. At this time the S&P e-mini futures are up to the resistance level (trend line), and that resistance level appears to be holding at this time.

Following the FX market moves which began late last night the S&P futures have continued to decline significantly. At this time futures are down 22 points.

This is no small drop in the futures market. If these levels remain as they are now expect a large gap down on the US market open tomorrow morning.

S&P futures chart showing price moves since the Wednesday close -

The following chart is of the S&P 500 E-mini futures (hourly chart). The bottom of the channel remains a very important level.

As of this moment the market is trapped between 1055 and 1070..

S&P 500 Futures Chart - Hourly Scale

This short term (hourly scale) chart reveals a rising wedge.

Watching the 970 level for confirmation of a break of the wedge to the downside.

S&P 500 Futures

Pre market levels to watch. The first chart is an hourly chart with near term support / resistance levels. The second chart is that of a daily scale and highlights the potential head & shoulders pattern.

Weekly jobless claims:

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 608K V 604KE;

CONTINUING CLAIMS: 6.687M V 6.840ME

Prior Jobless Claims revised from 601K to 605K
Prior Continuing Claims revised from 6.816M to 6.835M

Pre market chart update:

On this hourly chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures we find that a key short term technical support level has been broken. This type of support failure reveals additional downward moves in the market are very possible.

More in the nightly wrap up…

Pre market support and resistance levels identified on the chart shown below.

S&P 500 Futures Chart - June 8 2009

Interesting how the media never mentions that the only reason the market ended in the green today was activity that took place in the span of only several minutes.

Was this ‘program trading’ or intentional painting of the tape?

Painting The Tape–

The illegal practice in which traders buy and sell a specific security among themselves, creating the illusion of high trading volume and significant investor interest, which can attract unsuspecting investors who might then buy the stock and enable the traders to profit.

Well whatever this was that occurred at exactly 3:55pm EST it was the event that prevented the market from going into the red.

See the horizontal red line on the chart below that marks the top… that red line is the resistance level going back to the previous high on May 8th, resistance held.

I will have much more on Saturday and on Sunday…

The chart below is a 5 minute chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini futures for today.

(click image for larger view)

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

The day began with monthly retail sales data being released and CNBC was shocked that the numbers revealed that consumer spending is still weak, if not still declining.

My readers should not have been shocked by this weak retail spending data as I have been discussing at great length that the overall trend of retail spending has been declining.

The bear market rally from early March is now clearly in danger of failing. The charts tell us that there is much danger in continuing to hold ‘long’ positions at this time.

Over the past two weeks I have warned that it was wise to take profits in ‘long’ positions, hopefully you were able to. Today’s strong selling shows that the market is NOT too big to fail.

More later in the nightly wrap up video.

S&P 500 Futures Chart

S&P 500 Futures Chart