Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

Government plays “fun with numbers”, and hopes you are too stupid to see through the BS.

The Government has attempted to paint the economic stimulus plan as a huge success. Before the bill was passed last year the Obama administration had proclaimed it would save or create upwards of nearly 4 million jobs.

NY Times – January 11, 2009

[…] In the campaign, Mr. Obama vowed to create one million jobs, and after winning election he put forth a plan to create up to three million. The report now puts the figure at roughly 3.7 million, the midpoint of an estimated range of 3.3 million to 4.1 million jobs by the end of next year. […]

But sadly it has not quite worked out as well as the Obama administration hoped for. So recently the Obama administration moved the goal post around the field and changed the definition of a job saved.

In December, the White House Office of Management and Budget changed its guidance, telling [stimulus money] recipients they should start counting every worker whose salary was funded with stimulus money, rather than guessing whether the jobs would have existed in the absence of the federal plan.

Tonight the WSJ reports:

Recipients of economic-stimulus money said 599,108 workers were being paid by the funds in the last quarter of 2009, fewer than the number of jobs attributed to the package in the seven months after it was enacted. The recipients’ reports, published on the official government Web site recovery.gov late Saturday. […]

In his State of the Union address to Congress last week, President Barack Obama said that "because of the steps we took, there are about two million Americans working right now who would otherwise be unemployed."

Those projections are based on macroeconomic models and try to include the number of jobs that exist indirectly as a result of people being hired to work on stimulus projects, or of people receiving food stamps or other aid funded by the stimulus program. […]

My note: Add to that those receiving stimulus money and reporting jobs being saved when they were never in danger in the first place. The Obama administration is playing games with the numbers. Fuzzy math? This more like along the lines of trying to convince your teacher how you can put the square peg into the round hole.

That stimulus money is really doing miracles. It has created new congressional districts where none existed before. Magic you say? How about just plain BS.

The Obama administrations ‘Recovery.gov’ web site is supposed to be providing accurate and informative information relating to all things connected with the stimulus spending. But there is a problem, some of the jobs reported as being created (or saved) have turned out to be misleading or just untrue.

ABC news gets credit here for doing some investigative work for a change and found some peculiar things being reported on the Governments web site.

Here’s a stimulus success story: In Arizona’s 15th congressional district, 30 jobs have been saved or created with just $761,420 in federal stimulus spending. At least that’s what the Web site set up by the Obama administration to track the $787 billion stimulus says.

There’s one problem, though: There is no 15th congressional district in Arizona; the state has only eight districts.

And ABC News has found many more entries for projects like this in places that are incorrectly identified.[...]

“We report what the recipients submit to us,” said Ed Pound, [White House] Communications Director for the Board.[...]

recovery.gov says $34 million in stimulus money has been spent in Arizona’s 86th congressional district in a project for the Navajo Housing authority, which is actually located in the 1st congressional district.

In Oklahoma, recovery.gov lists more than $19 million in spending — and 15 jobs created — in yet more congressional districts that don’t exist.

In Iowa, it shows $10.6 million spent – and 39 jobs created — in nonexistent districts.[...]

The examples highlighted by ABC news are what I believe to be just scratching the surface of errors and ‘slightly altered‘ information.

One case reported by ABC news this evening involved a Head Start program in Georgia that claimed 317 jobs were created with the stimulus funds they received. The truth is this organization did not hire any new employees, instead just gave pay raises to their already existing employees. See insert video.

“It wasn’t illegal, immoral, or unethical. And they told me to do it, so I did it” I think telling someone what you ‘know’ is wrong counts as unethical, even if they told you to do so.

So is the stimulus money really being used well and properly? Is it really creating numerous jobs that will be lasting, or just temporary? Given the amount of over inflated talk out of Washington these days it comes as no surprise to me that even the website that is supposed to provide accurate information is nothing more than an over inflated propaganda ‘make me feel good’ web site.

Notice on the top of the insert image (click image for sharper view), it says that fraud can be reported on the website. So I did!

I reported that recovery.gov is full of what appears to be fraudulent data.. Lets see if I get a response (Honey.. who is knocking on the door at this time of the night?)

Yep… it was like a circus show today in the Senate. The stimulus bill continues to take center stage in the media and just about everywhere else. We don’t even know yet what the bill,if passed, will do for the economy. Some have said, including me, that the bill has the appearance of being a big expensive nothing. It will do some things that are necessary like providing funds to the unemployment insurance programs, aid to states, but that is about where it ends.

I do not have much confidence in the stimulus bill being able to be on target, or enough to pull the economy out of the deep hole it is in. To me it appears that the Government is trying to rescue an economy that is down a 100 foot deep hole. And the stimulus bill only makes a rope 50 feet long and it is as thin as a thread. Not long enough to reach the victim, and not strong enough to support him either.

(read more…)

Ben Bernanke Speaks…

Some snips of Ben’s testimony today before the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. (Bens comments are shown in red text)

The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable since the time of our July report.  Strains in financial markets, which first became evident late last summer, have persisted; and pressures on bank capital and the continued poor functioning of markets for securitized credit have led to tighter credit conditions for many households and businesses.  The growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) held up well through the third quarter despite the financial turmoil, but it has since slowed sharply.  Labor market conditions have similarly softened, as job creation has slowed and the unemployment rate–at 4.9 percent in January–has moved up somewhat

He says that unemployment has ‘moved up somewhat’. This morning we received data on what is called the "mass layoff index". It is an index which is not publicized very often and most people don’t know about it. But it is issued each month by the US Department of Labor and it tracks the number of ‘events’ of any mass lay off. When a company lays off more than 50 of its workers in a single shot it is referred to as an ‘event’, and the number of events is tracked by the Department of Labor. The chart below shows the trend of mass layoffs in the United States. Observe how the trend has been increasing since early 2006. From this we can clearly see the unemployment trend is getting worse. Back in December I projected the US employment rate will reach 5.5% by March or April. This data, which is seldom published in the media, is one indicator I use to predict where unemployment is heading. In January 2008 the hardest hit sector of layoffs was in retail and construction, no surprise there!

(Mass Layoff Events – as of 2/27/2008 | Data Source: Moody’s Economy.com)

Consumer spending continued to increase at a solid pace through much of the second half of 2007, despite the problems in the housing market, but it appears to have slowed significantly toward the end of the year.  The jump in the price of imported energy, which eroded real incomes and wages, likely contributed to the slowdown in spending, as did the declines in household wealth associated with the weakness in house prices and equity prices.  Slowing job creation is yet another potential drag on household spending, as gains in payroll employment averaged little more than 40,000 per month during the three months ending in January, compared with an average increase of almost 100,000 per month over the previous three months.  However, the recently enacted fiscal stimulus package should provide some support for household spending during the second half of this year and into next year.

Ben states that the $160 Billion dollar economic stimulus package will add support for spending in the second half of this year. Got a surprise for you Ben.. Most people will not go out and buy TV’s and iPods. A Bloomberg / LA Times poll released today shows that only 18% of those asked plan to use the money on discretionary purchases, the rest will be saved or otherwise set aside. Only 18%, I don’t think that will do much for the economy Ben. The Bloomberg / LA Times poll is not the only one to come up with figures like these. In another poll taken last month by the Associated Press the data was similar:

An Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that only 19 percent of those surveyed said they planned to spend their rebate checks. Forty-five percent said they would pay bills, while 32 percent said they planned to invest the money

So Ben… don’t go counting on that $160 Billion dollars to save the economy. 

The risks to this outlook remain to the downside.  The risks include the possibilities that the housing market or labor market may deteriorate more than is currently anticipated and that credit conditions may tighten substantially further

Ben.. you need to read our site from time to time. We will tell you what is happening. The "Hope Now" plan that was put in place back in October 2007 gave a momentary boost to those people looking to refinance their homes, but that has very quickly burned out. And the amount of new mortgages being applied for continues to drop. The chart below shows the refinance applications and the new applications. Both are heading back down. A clear sign that the housing market continues to suffer badly and that "hope now" has failed.

(MBA Mortgage Applications | Data Source Moody’s Economy.com)

The next chart is also with data that was updated today. It is the new home sales data that is provided by the US Census Bureau, and from this chart we can see that the housing market continues to decline sharply with no signs of any improvement yet.

(New Home Sales | Data Source Moody’s Economy.com)

In summary, Ben Bernanke’s testimony today before the House of Representatives told us that the Federal Reserve is ready and willing to keep cutting interest rates, even in the face of rising inflation. Without him saying so it is obvious to us that the Federal Reserve is deeply concerned about a financial system collapse and that trumps anything else at the moment, and it should. But rate cuts are likely not going to save the financial system from a collapse if conditions continue to worsen. It will require something much more, something even greater than ever enacted or put into place. This is a time for some well thought out plans and not just cutting interest rates which run the risk of influencing inflation further and sending the country into an even deeper recession as the cost of living become unmanageable.

The credit crisis continues to deteriorate, it is that simple. So far the rate cuts, the "hope now" alliance, and the new "project Lifeline" have done nothing to solve the problems, they have simply made the average person think that something is being done. The risks to the US economy remain very high for a substantial decline. Yesterday, Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at the New York University who is a very well known and respected economist submitted a written testimony to the House of Representatives. The media failed to cover this or even mention anything about it. But Mr. Roubini laid out before the House of Representatives the real risks to our financial system. His testimony is a must read for everyone. You can read his testimony on the House of Representatives website by clicking HERE. (the file is requires you to have Adobe Acrobat reader installed to read the PDF file). I encourage everyone to read his testimony.

Currency rates in numerous countries continues to rise with respect to our US Dollar. This is great news for foreign tourists that visit our country, but it is bad for those of us that live here. The US Dollar hit another all time low today of 74.09. Oil is remaining at the $100 level and gasoline prices are starting to climb once again. My local gas station (petrol station for our English readers) has increased the price of a gallon of gas by $0.20 in just the past 13 days. Historically the price of gasoline increases with the Spring and Summer seasons as demand increases. I anticipate that $4.00 gasoline will be here sometime in 2008.

Some news items on the wires tonight:

-Japan’s production falls 2% in January, twice the expected amount as shipments to the United States have declined for the 5th month. The weakening economy is impacting foreign markets as the United States is the largest customer of foreign good for many emerging markets.

-In the first 2 months of 2008 $21 Billion Dollars in new IPO’s have been canceled… this is the highest ever on record.

FIXED INCOME: WSJ NOTES THAT NOW VARIABLE-RATE DEMAND NOTES ARE PRESENTING PROBLEMS TO MUNICIPAL BORROWERS
- Variable-rate demand notes let issuers borrow for long periods, but at short-term rates.
- The problem with variable-rate demand notes its that,like auction-rate securities, interest payments adjust on a weekly or daily basis.
- WSJ notes that rates on variable-rate demand notes are rising because dealers are having trouble selling this type of debt.

THE U.S. SUBPRIME CRISIS HAS DONE WHAT OTHER UNSETTLING EVENTS COULD NOT DO – CURB THE APPETITE OF FOREIGN INVESTORS FOR U.S. SECURITIES – JOE QUINLAN AT BANK OF AMERICA
- Capital inflows "basically collapsed over the second half of last year," when subprime problems "bubbled to the surface." He notes foreign purchases of U.S. securities fell more than 48% in 2H07.
- "A crumbling infrastructure, a government deep in debt, a brewing health care crisis" and continuing reliance on foreign oil all point to weaker capital flows ahead. That "could spell more trouble for the world’s largest debtor nation and for U.S. financial markets."

(UK) FINANCIALS: WSJ REPORTS THAT LONDON-BASED HEDGE FUND RICHMOND CAPITAL LOST ABOUT 50% OF ITS FUNDS IN JAN
- As of Dec 2007, the fund had €350M of assets.
- The fund follows a long/short equity strategy.

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A much quieter day, almost eerie.   The market is so news driven now, that when no major announcements are made, or ho-hum announcements, it seems like traders just aren’t quite sure what to do. Volume was a bit lighter than it has been and obviously some were selling into the rally. I listened to CNBC for awhile today (to hear Paulson) and I’m telling ‘ya those people give me a major headache!  The stimulus package apparently includes tax rebates from $300-$1200, depending on how much money you make and how many children you have.  House Speaker Peolisi said, in essence, the goal is to get money to the ‘middle class’  so they will hurry up and spend it.  According to her that will create demand for goods and get businesses to hire more people.  Bet she wasn’t an economics major.  (See, I’m not politically biased!  I don’t like anyone on either side of the aisle!)  Forgot to add that in this deal, they are raising the limits for GSE, Freddic Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) on conforming loans to $730,000 from $417,000.  There’s a provision in there that the amount will be based on local housing market values and the raising of the limit expires at the end of the year.

There’s still no real news on the bond insurers, yet. 

Microsoft (MSFT) has reported Q2 earnings of $.50/share, revenues of $16.3B.  Estimates were $.46/share, revs of $15.9B.  So they did well.  This is their guidance:

Q3  EPS $0.43-$0.45 v $0.44e, Rev $14.3-$14.6B v $14.44B est

FY08 EPS $1.85-$1.88 v $1.81est $59.9B-$60.5B v $59.44B est

Their CFO states “We continue to see healthy demand from both businesses and consumers in the United States and our growth in emerging markets is especially strong.  Looking across Brazil, Russia, India and China, our field revenue reached a combined growth rate over 65% this quarter.”

Borrowing at the Fed Discount window averaged $752 Million a day this week.  Just thought you should remember that the problems haven’t stopped (I know, like you need a reminder).