Rebel Traders – Analysis Without The Hype

In what should be one of the largest periods for the Chinese exports it is actually one of the worst. This is the peak time for worldwide retaillers to be receiving goods from China for the upcoming holiday shopping season.

Either retailers are waiting for the last minute to determine what (and how much) they will commit money to, or they just don’t see the demand to justify ordering large quantities of goods.

Just released were the figures for August 2009:

(CH) CHINA AUG TRADE BALANCE: $15.7B V $13.6BE ($10.6B PRIOR)

- Exports Y/Y: -23.4% v -19%e (-23% prior)
- Imports Y/Y: -17% v -10.5%e (-15% prior)

(US) MAY TRADE BALANCE: -$26B V -$28.8B prior

Prior revised from -$29.2B to -$28.8B

Components :
- Imports: $149.2B v $150.2B prior
- Exports: $123.3B v $121.4B prior
- China: -$17.48B v -$16.8B prior
- Japan: -$1.91B v -$3.22B prior
- Canada: -$628M v -$1.22B prior
- OPEC: -$4.06B v -$3.6B prior
- Mexico: -$3.94B v -$4.12B prior
- Euro Area: -$2.1B v -$4.16B prior

If anyone needs another measure of just how bad consumer spending ‘really’ is one only has to look at data released tonight by the Japanese Government.

JAPAN – JANUARY MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -Â¥952.5B  (PRIOR -Â¥322.3B)

- Exports: -45.7% (biggest drop on record)

- Imports: -31.7%;
- Exports to US: -52.9%; US Trade Surplus: ¥132.8B (-75.3% y/y)
- Exports to Asia: -46.7%;  Asia Trade Deficit ¥562.7B (+60.7% y/y)
- Coal imports -8.7%
- Crude imports -8.0%

This data really puts a whole new perspective on just how bad the American consumers & businesses truly are.